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Lithium carbonate spot ** has seen wild fluctuations this week, quietly ending from the ongoing trend and making a "V-shaped" reversal. However, the core factor is also affected by the gradual expansion of the recent lithium carbonate spot transaction price and the long-term agreement price difference and the low number of warehouse receipts registered in the broad future, this article will dismantle the rationality of the recent lithium carbonate ** fluctuations from the fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry chain.
**: Lithium mines, lithium carbonate long-term agreements** continue to decline
mysteelThe lithium ore and lithium carbonate on the terminal are often a reference for enterprises to carry out long-term settlement, and they will be converted through partial discounts at the time of settlement, so this ** does not represent the lowest ** range in the market, but it can represent the large-scale long-term purchase ** in the market.
According to Mysteel lithium mine**, the reference price of spodumene concentrate settlement this week is in a downward trend. On December 8, the settlement reference price of 6% spodumene concentrate was 1,900 yuan tonne, down 30 percent from the previous month9%。According to Mysteel lithium carbonate**, the reference price of industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate settlement this week is also in a downward trend. On December 8, the reference for the settlement of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 110,000 tons, down 27. month-on-month4%；The battery-grade lithium carbonate settlement reference** is 12150,000 tons, down 255%。Because the pricing models of lithium mines and lithium carbonate settlement** are different, there will also be a slight deviation in the decline range, and the overall lithium mine and lithium carbonate long-term settlement** have declined month-on-month.
Supply: The output of lithium carbonate is stable, and the import of lithium ore and lithium salt continues to develop
The main raw material of lithium carbonate is lithium ore, and most of the supply of major lithium ore comes from overseas supply, so when considering the supply of lithium carbonate, it is necessary to consider not only the output of lithium carbonate, but also the supply of lithium ore, which is its raw material.
In terms of lithium ore imports, according to the latest customs data, China's lithium ore imports in October were 4590,000 tons, a decrease of 799%, an increase of 80 year-on-year3%。Of these, 34 were imported from Australia60,000 tons, a decrease of 133%。From January to October 2023, China's lithium ore import volume was 36210,000 tons, an increase of 65 year-on-year9%。Of these, 297 were imported from Australia60,000 tons, an increase of 48 year-on-year7%。
Based on the import of lithium ore in September and October, domestic lithium ore is relatively loose in the short term, and there is a considerable part of lithium ore inventory. According to the statistics of Mysteel lithium mine data, the current domestic port lithium mine inventory is 490,000 tons, and 100,000 tons of domestic warehouses (excluding factory warehouses) inventory.
According to Mysteel statistics, the domestic output of lithium carbonate in November was 40,570 tons, an increase of 6% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase was due to the fact that the manufacturers that stopped production for maintenance in October have basically resumed production. According to the December survey, some Jiangxi manufacturers also have maintenance plans, but from a national perspectiveThe overall output in December was not much different from that in November, which was 40,850 tons, an increase of 1% month-on-month.
From the perspective of lithium salt imports, Chile is China's main lithium carbonate importer, and Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China account for about 80%-90% of China's total lithium carbonate imports, so Chile's lithium carbonate export data will be a more important detection indicator。From October to November 2023, Chile exported 16,791 tons and 13,592 tons of lithium carbonate, respectively, and imported a total of 126586 tons of lithium carbonate from January to November 2023, accounting for 24% of Chile's current imports from October to November, which is about equal to the import volume of the previous three months. Due to the low production cost of lithium carbonate in Chile, under the current lithium carbonate situation, a large number of imports from Chile will be effective for domestic lithium carbonate.
Demand: Lithium iron phosphate, ternary material production decreased slightly
At present, the downstream demand for lithium carbonate is mainly focused on the consumption of cathode materials, which are mainly composed of lithium iron phosphate materials and ternary cathode materials.
According to Mysteel statistics, the output of lithium iron phosphate in November was 136,930 tons, a decrease of 572%；The output of ternary cathode materials in November was 46,220 tons, down 9 percent from the previous month32%。
In November, the terminal cell factory 173The cumulative battery inventory of 4GWh is currently in the stage of active destocking, with weak demand growth. The orders of cathode material factories were continuously cut by battery cell companies, and some lithium iron phosphate and ternary material manufacturers continued to reduce production.
In December, the output of cathode manufacturers is expected to continue to decline slightly under the background of battery cell companies going to the warehouse, subsequent cathode orders being cut and the end of the year holiday. The output of lithium iron phosphate cathode in December is expected to be 124,460 tons, down 9 percent from the previous month1%；The output of ternary cathode is expected to be 42,350 tons, down 8 percent from the previous month4%。
Summary
On the whole, the abundance of lithium ore and lithium carbonate in the short term will have a partial inhibitory effect on lithium carbonate, but the current spot ** is related to the registration of manifests and the repair of long-term price spreads. Combined with demand, the current sufficient ** and the downstream relatively weak demand pattern, it is still difficult to support lithium carbonate to maintain in the too high ** range, and it is expected that lithium carbonate ** will remain in the range of 10-140,000 ** in December.
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