Rabies is a deadly viral disease that is transmitted to humans by infected animals, mainly dogs. When a human is bitten or scratched by a dog, rabies infection can occur if the rabies vaccine is not administered in time. So, what is the probability of getting sick after being scratched by a dog?Is not getting vaccinated really a gamble?Let's take a look at the question.
First, there are two ways to estimate the probability of rabies.
Method 1 is an estimate of the incidence probability based on the number of people bitten. According to data from surveillance clinics, about 50 million people in China are bitten by dogs and cats every year. However, most people go to the clinic to get vaccinated, so the percentage of unvaccinated people is low. According to some research data, the percentage of people who are not vaccinated is around 30%. As a result, the number of unvaccinated people who are bitten by dogs and cats could exceed 20 million people each year. According to research data, the incidence of disease in unvaccinated people after being bitten by dogs and cats is about 1 40,000.
The second method is to estimate the incidence probability based on the proportion of dogs and cats carrying the virus. According to research data in some regions, the proportion of dogs carrying rabies virus may be around 1%. According to research data, the probability of developing a human being bitten by an infected dog is about 20%. Therefore, if the proportion of dogs carrying rabies virus is assumed to be 1%, the overall probability of developing rabies is about 2 1000.
However, it is important to note that these estimates are for reference only, and the actual probability of onset is affected by a variety of factors, such as region, vaccination status, and the proportion of dogs and cats carrying the virus. In addition, the incidence of rabies is not for everyone to get bitten by a dog every year, so official incidence data may not fully reflect the actual situation.
Although the incidence of rabies may be relatively low, we should still recognize the dangers of rabies. Once infected with the rabies virus, there is almost no chance of **, and the disease progresses rapidly and is fatal. Therefore, to protect yourself and others, we strongly recommend that you get your rabies vaccine up to date and follow the relevant precautions.
In conclusion, the probability of rabies onset due to dog scratches is a complex issue that is affected by a variety of factors. Although the incidence of rabies may be relatively low, we cannot ignore the severity of rabies. For the health and safety of yourself and others, it is very important to get vaccinated against rabies in a timely manner. Let's focus on rabies prevention and control together and contribute to the creation of a safe society.