[Disk analysis].
U.S. stocks have entered the atmosphere of Christmas and New Year, and the A** field continues to open low and probe the bottom without interference. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the decline in core inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the Red Sea shipping problem, commodities have continued to rise recently, especially the U.S. stocks, which represent global risk appetite, have risen for eight consecutive weeks. The current pressure on the market still exists, considering that the emotion-led ** arbitrariness is strong, the weakness of A-shares this year is closely related to factors such as market confidence, especially after the short-term sharp **, the valuation advantage of A-shares is obvious again, and continue to wait for the opportunity to participate after the new low.
Ride a bull to see a bear spotIntel Releases AI PC Processors with Double Core Graphics Performance. Intel officially unveiled its AI PC processors, the new Core Ultra processors and the fifth-generation Xeon Scalable processors, and showcased the Intel AI accelerator Gaudi3. 238 large models have been released in China, the number of large models is much higher than overseas, and more than 20 domestic large models have passed, and the companies that have not passed the filing have turned to focus on vertical large models or even out. The multimodal capabilities of large models continue to evolve, the marginal improvement of model capabilities and the reduction of access costs may promote the prosperity of the application side.
The three major indices collectively opened low, with less than 1,000 red plates in the two cities, mixed reality, superconducting concepts, aviation and other sectors performed strongly, while shipping, short drama games, NFTs and other sectors performed poorly. The concept of digital currency continued to be strong, Chutianlong 2 boards, Airong Software rose by more than 15%, Huayang Lianzhong, Guao Technology, etc., engaged in online game currency trading services, should comply with the following regulations: should be engaged in online game currency transactions with real-name digital yuan wallets. Game stocks continued to fall sharply at the opening, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment bidding fell to the limit, Yao Ji Technology, Giant Network and other stocks fell by more than 5%, online games are not allowed to set daily login, first recharge, continuous recharge and other inducing rewards, all online games must set user recharge limits. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the National Press and Publication Administration said that the draft for comments aims to promote the prosperity and healthy development of the industry, and will listen to the opinions of all parties and further revise and improve.
MR concept stocks opened up, China Optics rose by the limit, Shenzhen Keda, Zhicube, etc. followed suit, Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth revealed in an interview that the company may show a prototype of advanced AR glasses codenamed "Orion" in 2024. The photovoltaic sector continues to be active, Qingyuan shares 3 boards, Zhenbang Intelligent touched the daily limit, microconductive nano, Boamax Technology, etc., in 2023, the installed momentum of China's photovoltaic power plants is still rapid, and the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in the first 11 months is 16388GW, a year-on-year increase of 1494%, a new high. The military sector was active in early trading, Triangle Defense, Mengsheng Electronics and other stocks rose more than 5%, and the military industry in the current mid-term adjustment has not yet landed in the downstream order window period, which is susceptible to the amplification of some factors with low expectations, but in essence, it will not constitute a sufficient medium and long-term impact, and the current PE-TTM of the military industry is lower than the valuation range in the past ten years.
ChatGPT concept stocks *** 360 rose, Chinese ** and other stocks rose more than 5%, the first official "large model standard compliance evaluation" results in China were announced, and it is understood that the first batch of only 360, Tencent, Ali passed. The Beijing Stock Exchange was active against the trend, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose by more than 3%, Yoshioka Precision rose by more than 26%, and Shengnan Technology, Zhuozhao Dispensing, Tongyi Aerospace, Hengjin Induction, Yishi Precision, and Lechuang Technology rose by more than 10%. Among the 238 shares on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there are currently less than 5.
GEM:
[**Prediction].
The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower on Monday, and there was no obvious sign of **, and blue chips and financial stocks died down. Judging from the recent market trend, large consumption, medicine and other big blue-chip sectors continue to decline, and the ** of "killing valuation" continues, and Brother Niu still says: "Blue chips are not only falling, it is difficult to have ** opportunities!"."At this stage, the market is still waiting for the market to stabilize, if there is really a 2% index drop, you can appropriately participate in the grab, otherwise we must pay attention to the control. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 2900 points.
The ChiNext index performed strongly on Monday, trading sideways at a low level for **3 trading days, and this week it faces the last week of December, as well as the last few days of 2023, and the market will have a new trend. This position is still to be careful of the clearance of some **, and at the end of the year some junk stocks may become ST, we must pay attention to the quality of the performance, otherwise the continuous decline after ST will bring greater losses. The main sectors in December are still in the small and medium-sized market technology, games, commodities and other concepts, this kind of disk is the most uncomfortable "deep into the investor" or your bull brother. Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1820 points.
[Gold Rush Plan].
At present, the domestic economy is diverging and recovering, stabilizing growth, stabilizing real estate, expanding finance, and easing monetary policy are expected to strengthen, the overseas Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, and the U.S. stocks and bonds are both bullish, and the conditions for A-shares to get out of the market are basically there, but based on the current expected weak net profit growth rate and the continued tightening of market capital fundamentals, A-shares need to be catalyzed by factors such as fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and incremental market entry. A-shares often usher in a 2-year growth bull market with the economic upturn, and then experience a value bull market ranging from 3-5 years with the economic downturn, and the dumbbell strategy of ** value + small-cap growth in history is effective, which is a process of re-repairing the market valuation system after it reaches the extreme.
Concepts such as AI, aviation, and mixed reality in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the net outflow of funds from concepts such as short dramas, games, NFTs, and shipping is relatively large. Ride a bull to see a bear spotThe core processor CPU + NPU + GPU architecture will become the computing power base of AI PCs in the future, and this XPU architecture is also expected to promote the rapid popularization of AI digital humans.
The development of AI applications is the core contradiction affecting the valuation of the AI sector. In the early stage of the rapid growth of the AI industry, the core focus of investment is on the creation of incremental demand for applications, and in terms of investment rhythm, the construction of computing power infrastructure and large model training will take precedence in the early stage, and the opportunities brought by the continuous enhancement of applications will be focused in the later stage.
OpenAI is in discussions to raise a new round of funding, which will reach a valuation of more than $100 billion. The deal will add another significant addition to OpenAI's funding journey, which has raised $13 billion from Microsoft to date. The semiconductor industry is currently in the stage of bottoming out the cycle, and the downstream recovery will promote a new round of semiconductor upward cycle, and we are optimistic about the recovery and the two main lines of the AI computing power industry chain.
The R&D of AI multimodal models and AI agent applications at home and abroad are still continuing, and the B-end and C-end applications that have been implemented in the fields of tools, education, social networking, and marketing will gradually open up the space for commercialization, while IP development fields such as animation and film and television may continue to benefit from the cost reduction and efficiency improvement brought by the implementation of AI multimodal models, and give full play to the IP multiplier effectIt is recommended to continue to lay out the field of AI application and IP development.