Japan-ROK diplomacy has evolved from "resisting China" to "friendship with China", and sincerely improving relations with China
It is reported that Taiwan's "Business Times" recently wrote an article pointing out that looking back at Japan and South Korea in 2023, we can see a series of intertwined heads of state diplomacy and international politics. From the Asia-Pacific Economic and Trade Organization (APEC) summit in November to the recent China-Japan-ROK foreign ministers' meeting, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol have always adhered to the principle of "diplomacy before domestic affairs". Their policy shift showed goodwill toward China and eased the already tense situation in East Asia.
Japan and South Korea are considered to be the two key pawns of the United States in East Asia, whose task is mainly to take containment measures against Russia while confronting China. However, with the rise to power of South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's enthusiasm for building up armaments with U.S. support, the two countries appear to have become key players for the U.S. in dealing with China in the Asia-Pacific region. This is also the main reason for China's fierce conflicts with Japan and South Korea in the political and military fields, triggering instability in East Asia.
In fact, as long as a new great power Cold War between China and the United States still exists, it will be difficult for both South Korea and Japan to restore their relations with China to the status quo ante. The reason is very simple, Japan and South Korea's enthusiasm for the protection of the United States has almost reached the point of no return. Therefore, with the confrontation between China and the United States persisting, no one can expect Japan, South Korea, and China to be relaxed. Therefore, they seek to improve their relations with China, not to cherish their historical friendship, but more like a forced expedient measure. After all, it is not a security task to act as the vanguard of the United States in provoking a new Cold War between major powers, and offending China will bring not only security risks to Japan and South Korea, but also the danger of a rupture of economic and trade relations with China.
For South Korea in particular, since following the United States in its anti-China campaign, its participation in the U.S. chip export control coalition to China has caused its exports to China to fall to a record low. This is a serious blow to South Korea, which has long relied on exports** to drive economic growth. More importantly, although the deterioration of relations between China and South Korea did not lead to the outbreak of conflict, the tense military standoff between the two Koreas has made the South Korean people uneasy in the sound of war alarms. Under Yoon's leadership, South Korea's citizens have to endure not only economic setbacks but also North Korean nuclear and missile threats, which has led to a surge in dissatisfaction with the authorities, which has led to a sharp drop in Yoon's own public approval ratings.
In this situation, in order to regain the trust of South Korean voters, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration needs to seek cooperation with China, expand the scale of commodity exports to China, and reverse the decline of the South Korean economy by increasing the surplus. At the same time, China has close ties with the DPRK as an important participant in the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue. Therefore, Yoon Suk-yeol needs to rely on China's assistance to dispel the shadow of war crisis hanging over the peninsula by facilitating dialogue between the north and the south of the peninsula. Under these circumstances, South Korea's foreign policy is inevitably changing in the direction of "resisting China" to "friendly China".
In contrast, Fumio Kishida is in a more difficult situation. In recent years, in order to gain the support of the United States in military expansion, he did not hesitate to tie the fate and wealth of the entire country to the chariot of US regional hegemony. As a result, Japan's economic development and security environment have been seriously affected. Kishida's extreme approach ended up being the grave of his political career. The latest polls show that Kishida's approval rating has fallen to around 20%, which is described by Japan as "**water". In this context, Kishida needs to adjust his diplomatic strategy, which includes seeking to improve relations with China to change the unfavorable economic and security environment that Japan is currently facing.
Of course, it is not easy for Japan and South Korea to fundamentally improve their relations with China, and this involves their own interests. After all, in addition to the U.S. factor, the obstacles they face with China include the discharge of Fukushima nuclear wastewater into the sea, export controls on semiconductor products, equipment, and raw materials to China. Obviously, despite the desire of Japan and South Korea to improve relations with China, if these issues are not properly addressed, everything may be empty talk. "Business Times" pointed out in its report: Japan and South Korea's foreign policy has shifted from resistance to friendship with China, and the key to whether it can win China's trust lies in how Kishida and Yoon Suk-yeol show political sincerity.
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