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Text |New knowledge of science and technology.When will the joint venture be withdrawn from China?
Conservatives believe that the joint venture brand has deep pockets and solid foundations, and it is only a matter of time before the transformation is successfulThe radicals, on the other hand, have mostly sentenced themselves to death: this year is only the beginning of the purging, and the end will be in 2025.
Both sides have their own points of view, but they are also based on an indisputable fact that the joint venture brand that has dominated the country for 40 years has become a marginal player at the table.
Bankruptcy liquidation, idle production capacity, and plummeting sales are the norm for joint venture brands in 2023.
Dongfeng Honda, GAC Mitsubishi, FAW Toyota, SAIC-GM, Dongfeng Citroen, and even SAIC Volkswagen are all facing unprecedented challenges.
In the cruel knockout game of the automobile industry, the twilight heroes also have to think of ways to save themselves. From the factory** to the slashing of price cuts, to the acceleration of transformation, all players have to race against time.
In the era of fuel vehicles, the domestic market was almost monopolized by joint venture brands. Until the electric vehicle companies represented by Tesla set off a new round of industrial revolution in the automotive industry.
Getting rid of the constraints of the accumulated advantages of engine, gearbox and chassis tuning, everyone stands on the same starting line, and China's advantages as the world's largest automobile consumer market are suddenly apparent.
In 2016, with the introduction of self-owned brand electric vehicles to the market, the market share of domestic manufacturers also exceeded 40%. It's just that after that, it can't be sung any further.
2020 is a year of collective electrification of domestic brands, but under the counterattack of joint venture brands, the share of domestic brands fell below 40% this year and only 384%。
The turning point occurred in 2021, electrification has become an irreversible trend, and the joint venture car companies that are still lying in the comfort zone are declining significantly. Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda saw sales growth weaker than **, or even declined. Entering 2022, Nissan, Ford, General Motors, Kia, Hyundai, etc., have also turned into a downward channel.
So far this year, the survival of the fittest of joint venture car companies has released a stronger exit signal. GAC Acura announced that it will officially withdraw from the Chinese market from 2023Mitsubishi Motors** joint venture GAC Mitsubishi shares and dissolution of the shares, GAC Aion will use the GAC Mitsubishi plant to increase production and capacityThe listing price of Beijing Hyundai's Chongqing plant has been repeatedly lowered to revitalize idle assets and alleviate the pressure on production and operation.
According to the data of the Passenger Association, the share of independent brands has reached 60% in October 2023, which means that the share of joint venture brands has been less than 4% (imports are not counted), and it has come to 40%.
Typical representatives such as FAW Toyota, in 2022, set a strategic goal of annual sales of more than one million vehicles and enter the "10 million club", and the final wholesale sales volume is only 83460,000 units;Wholesale sales in the first three quarters of this year were 57900,000 units, which is even further away from last year's target.
In order to alleviate the inventory pressure and financial pressure of dealers, FAW Toyota reluctantly issued a letter to FAW Toyota's dealer partners, mentioning that "under the premise that production has been significantly reduced in the month, production from December to February next year will continue to be significantly reduced".
Coincidentally, SAIC-GM also performed sluggishly. According to the latest official production and marketing report, this year's sales have reached 89620,000 units, down 1670%。According to the current situation, annual sales may be less than 1 million units, returning to the level of 13 years ago.
And the vacant capacity is more telling. At present, SAIC-GM has a production capacity of 19080,000 units, based on the 2023 production of 1 million units, the utilization rate will drop to about 52%, and as many as 900,000 units of production capacity will be idle. In terms of performance, the operating income in the first half of 2023 will be 6204.8 billion yuan, down about 8% year-on-year;Net profit 52.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 77%.
FAW Toyota and SAIC-GM, which are declining, are just a microcosm of joint ventures. And in this process, the major car companies have not struggled.
In the tug-of-war with independent brands, there are two main points of force for joint venture brands: price reduction and accelerated transformation.
At the beginning of the year, Dongfeng Citroen C6 detonated the price reduction tide of fuel vehicles with "fracture price";In the second half of the year, B-class cars such as Buick LaCrosse and Ford Mondeo have also lowered their guide prices directly to the range of 150,000-180,000.
We all know that joint ventures have high profits, but no matter how high they are, they can't afford such crazy price cuts.
Guangqi Honda recently announced that it would lay off 900 employees due to a decrease in production and sales. Although the official response said that it only terminated the agreement with the labor dispatch company, a number of joint venture brands under the GAC Group have exposed negative news this year, and Honda will not escape the target of public criticism.
In addition, the sharp price reduction of joint venture fuel vehicles has also directly affected the ** of new energy models of the same brand.
At the beginning of July this year, SAIC Volkswagen ID3 out of 12Low price from 590,000 yuan;In October, SAIC-GM launched the Buick E5 Pioneer, positioning itself as a mid-to-large SUV with a starting price of only 16990,000 yuan;The Kia EV5, which was launched not long ago, has a guide price of 14950,000 yuan;The starting price of the Toyota Platinum 4X is $17980,000 yuan and so on.
In the past, joint ventures that monopolized high-premium cars have focused on cost-effectiveness in new energy, but the cake that can be shared is still limited.
In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of new energy vehicles in China were 30860,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 373%。According to the Passenger Car Association**, the annual sales target of 8.5 million units is expected to be reached this year. In June, joint venture brand new energy vehicles accounted for only 4The 8% market share is estimated to be less than 500,000 units out of the market size that is expected to hit 10 million units.
The market share is declining, do joint venture car companies still have the best chance?Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, said that it is not yet time for joint venture cars to die, because the market is diversified. However, new energy is still an inescapable reality for joint venture car companies, and facing their own shortcomings is the only answer for joint venture car companies to resolve their predicament.
Since the beginning of this year, a number of joint venture automakers have accelerated their transformation to electrification. Toyota, Honda, Nissan and other Japanese automakers announced clear electrification targets and product plans at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. However, in the research and development and application of the core technology of new energy vehicles, the joint venture brand lags behind compared with domestic enterprises, and the appearance design and market strategy are also relatively conservative, so the struggle for transformation has become the norm.
In the view of Science and Technology News, joint venture car companies have to work hard to reduce costs in the short term to cope with market competition;In the long run, it is still necessary to keep up with the pace of product development of local enterprises, and if there are shortcomings of foreign shareholders, joint ventures can introduce relevant products and technologies from Chinese shareholders.
The easiest shortcut for joint venture brands to develop new energy is to "bow down" to China.
Toyota was the first to "lean over". As early as 2020, Toyota Motor and BYD set up a pure electric vehicle R&D company with a 50:50 investment, and the first model jointly developed by the two parties, the FAW Toyota BZ3 equipped with BYD motor and battery, has been officially launched.
Since the beginning of this year, a number of joint venture brands such as Mazda, Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, and Nissan have announced that they have reached relevant cooperation with their own brands in the field of new energy vehicle development. Volkswagen.
Volkswagen Group first increased its capital to Xpeng Motors by about 700 million US dollars, becoming the third largest shareholder, and also won two B-segment electric vehicle cooperation projects. Audi announced that it had signed a strategic memorandum of understanding with SAIC Motor to jointly develop a portfolio of intelligent and connected electric vehicles.
Not long ago, Leapmotor also announced that the Stellantis Group plans to invest about 1.5 billion euros to acquire about 20% of its equity. Major decisions such as what technology to adopt, what products to launch, and which new markets to enter are all made by Leaprun, and Stellantis is only responsible for providing corresponding support.
In a series of new joint ventures, the scope of cooperation between foreign parties and China is no longer limited to capital, production and sales, and the integration of new energy technology has become the new main theme.
On the whole, both Volkswagen and Stellantis, like Chinese car brands 40 years ago, are trying to exchange their market advantages for car-making technology that they are not good at. The roles of Chinese and foreign brands have been reversed, and overseas car companies have become the party of "exchanging the market for technology".
These collaborations show that advanced Western automakers are recognizing and demanding China's EV technology, just as Chinese automakers once needed Western internal combustion engine technology. So reported Wall Street**.
The new joint venture model is mostly optimistic in the industry, but it is not easy to sit back and relax.
The technological development ability of independent brands is path dependent. Without the country's far-sighted and precise policies for the new energy industry chain, without the supporting of labor in the field of social security, and without the efficient division of labor and cooperation in the field of new energy technology research and development, even if it gets the Chinese-funded pure electric technology platform, it is difficult for the joint venture brand to make good use of this sword.
Unless the cooperation model is as in-depth and win-win as Volkswagen's stake in Xpeng, this round of joint venture car companies will continue to ebb and flow in the wave of independent brands, and it is likely that it will still be in an intermediate state of neither advancing nor retreating.
Of course, independent brands are far from the time to raise a glass and celebrate. Multinational car companies with long and strong history, such as Volkswagen and Toyota, have overcome many difficulties and setbacks longer than Chinese automobiles, and have survived the great changes of the times. As it turns out, they're not that vulnerable, either.
Don't ignore the strength of the international auto giants, their temporary lag in new energy does not mean that they are not prepared for the future at all.