1. China's first 14 years are actually the root of the big balance market Yesterday's blog has said, it is because we are just the opposite of the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock market in the past 14 years is led by dozens of world-class high-tech companies such as Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, etc., making the index a long-term bull market. However, in the past 14 years, China has relied on banks, real estate, brokers, insurance, nonferrous metals, coal, construction machinery, liquor, food, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc. to maintain the index. Your two plates rose this year, and after the rise, they fell sharply next year, and my next two plates will rise again next year, and they will fall sharply the year after the rise
The top ten technology stocks in the U.S. stock market account for 50% of the weight of the Nasdaq 100 index, and the top five technology stocks in the S&P 500 account for 23% of the market capitalization, because the stock prices of these dozens of world-class technology stocks in the U.S. stock market have continued to rise in the past 14 years, resulting in a continuous rise in the U.S. stock index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 47 times, the Nasdaq rose 118 times the result. In fact, more than half of the votes in the U.S. stock market have barely risen or very little in the past 14 years, and the famous traditional stock Coca-Cola has risen by 44 times, underperforming the Dow Jones index, U.S. banks have risen 24% in the past 17 years, significantly underperforming bank deposit interest.
Therefore, the root cause of China's ** index has not risen for 14 years, and the first fundamental reason is the lack of real world-class high-tech companies (only two) in China!The second reason is that there are too many new shares listed before, large and small non-financing, few delistings, and imperfect systems. That is to say, even after we improve all the systems and reduce the number of new shares listed to a reasonable level, before China's high-tech stocks do not play a leading role for a long time, it is still difficult for the index to have a long and slow bull market
2. There are some products or a few technologies in China's traditional industries such as steel and coal that are the world's first share or the first technology, but these are all traditional industry stocks, such as rare earths, China must be the world's first, and rare earth refining technology is also the world's first, but shareholders regard the rare earth industry as a mineral industry, and will not treat it as a high-tech industry, so they can't give you a high-tech stock valuation of sixty or seventy times and hundreds of times the price-earnings ratio. Among the high-tech stocks recognized by shareholders, it is extremely rare to have a world-class status, and I only found two domestic listed companies, Fujing Technology and Guangqi Technology. Huawei is a world-class high-tech company, but Huawei is not listedThere are many high-tech products with the world's first in research units such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences, but most of them are not listed, which cannot play a long-term supporting role in China (Fujing Technology is also owned by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and it is listed).
3. Among the more than 5,000 companies that have been listed in China, I have sorted out the high-tech stocks with high technology content, and only found seven companies, namely Fujing Technology, Guangqi Technology, VeriSilicon, Huada Jiutian, Suochen Technology, Loongson Zhongke, Jingjiawei, In addition to these seven, I have not found anything else. iFLYTEK's voice system used to be the world's first, but now it's hard to say whether it's the world's first, because many companies have done it. Other Kingsoft Office, Haiguang Information, Maolai Optics, ZTE, Cambrian and other high-tech content is slightly lower than the previous six;In addition, Sugon, Unisplendour, Venustech and other technology content is a little lower.
Among all the above listed technology stocks, except for Fujing Technology and Kuang-Chi Technology, none of the company's products are the world's highest technology in their industry, and none of them have the world's largest market share in the industry. Guangqi Technology because aviation stealth materials are not exported, nor is it the world's first industry share, its product application is extremely narrow, its total share capital of 2.1 billion is currently given to 55 times the price-earnings ratio is actually in place. With the industry's first high-tech and the world's share of the company, there is only one Fujing Technology among the 5,000 companies in ChinaVeriSilicon has one product that is ranked second or third in the world's industry. After combing through all the high-tech companies in my country, you can see clearly what the quality of the technology companies in my country is.
In terms of the current dynamic price-earnings ratio of the above high-tech companies, VeriSilicon's total share capital of 500 million yuan is currently losing performance, and the stock price is 51 yuanHuada Jiutian performance in the third quarter of three cents, the annual report may be 5 cents or 8 cents, 500 million total share capital current stock price of 99 yuan, 2000 times the price-earnings ratio, no sorry for it;Suochen Technology's performance loss in the third quarter is 7 cents, and the annual report is 5 cents, and the current stock price is 131 yuan 262 times the price-earnings ratio, which is worthy of it (it is the first domestic ** software, and I used to work in the world's first ** software company). Loongson Zhongke lost 075 yuan, the annual report is also expected to be a loss, and the current share price of 400 million yuan is 120 yuan. Jingjiawei lost 7 cents in the third quarter, and the annual report may be 1 cent, with a total share capital of 400 million yuan and a price-earnings ratio of 700 times.
Except for Fujing Technology, which has a total share capital of 400 million, which is now undervalued at 54 times dynamic P/E, no technology stock currently gives you a low P/E ratio. In addition to the world-class technology content company Fujing Technology did not give enough P/E ratio, China's top technology stocks have given world-class P/E ratio valuation standards, that is to say, China's first-class high-tech stocks have given a very good P/E ratio.
3. To sum up, (1) the stock prices of China's **traditional industry stocks cannot last for a long time and cannot bring long-term index**. 2) There are only one or two world-class technology stocks in China, and the rest are not world-class. (3) Although the vast majority of China's high-tech stocks are not world-class technology content, they have been given a world-class price-earnings ratio valuation standard, so it is difficult for these stocks to do anything in the short and medium term.
So how will China's ** rise in the future, and what will it rely on to be like the CATL era in 2019-2021, a ticket will drive the lithium battery sector, which will make the index rise twiceTherefore, we still need to wait patiently for the emergence of a number of world-class high-tech companies in the industry like Fujing Technology, so as to drive China's long-term growth and slow cattleHowever, I firmly believe that in the next three to five years, we will have a number of such real high-tech enterprises
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