Gao PeiyongMember of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and former Vice President
The following views are compiled from Gao Peiyong's speech at the CMF Annual Forum (2023-2024) and the Hu Naiwu China Macroeconomic Theory Outstanding Achievement Award Ceremony.
Number of words: 2252 words.
Reading time: 6 minutes.
At present, we are experiencing a "wave-like and tortuous economic recovery process", which is far more complex than expected, and the likely duration is highly uncertain. In the face of contradictions and difficulties in the process of economic recovery, refined analysis and precise regulation are particularly important.
1. The importance of refined analysis
As mentioned in the CMF China Macroeconomic Analysis and ** Report (2023-2024), a prominent problem facing China's economy is that "demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations are intertwined and mapped to each other". surfaceIt is a problem of demand and supply, and behind it is actually a problem of expectations. Behind the cyclical problems, there are structural and institutional problems. This is different, if not very different, from the process of economic recovery that we have experienced in the past during cyclical fluctuations.
Let me give you two examples.
First, the Politburo of the Communist Party of China pointed out at its July 24 meeting that the main difficulty and challenge facing the current economic operation is insufficient domestic demand, especially insufficient consumer demand. Noting that the tourism market in many places, especially during the double festival and summer vacation this year, has basically returned to the level before the epidemic, or at least not decreased so much, and then noticed that the statistical indicator to measure consumer demand is "total retail sales of social consumer goods", and "total retail sales of social consumer goods" is the product of the two factors of "flow" and consumer goods, it can be found that the current consumer demand in China is insufficient, mainly not reflected in the "volume" The reduction is reflected in the decline in the grade of consumer goods, so that the applicable goods have declined. This is not due to the interaction of supply and demand in the market, but rather as a consequence of declining incomes。The first is the lack of demand to have the ability to pay, and the second is the lack of expectations for future income due to the decline in current income. This example shows that macroeconomic analysis can not be generalized, at least not at the first level of macroeconomic indicator analysis, but should be extended downward, otherwise it is difficult to draw accurate judgments.
Second. The main difficulties and challenges faced in the process of economic recovery have been summarized as "triple pressures" since the 2021 ** Economic Work Conference, namely demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. From December 2021 to the present, it can be seen that the relationship between the three pressures is also evolving. The most important pressure, or the most prominent pressure at the moment, is the weakening of expectations. In a sense, it can be said that this is a round of demand contraction and supply shocks caused by weaker expectations or mainly weaker expectations
Therefore, in the current round of economic recovery process, we cannot simply copy the previous analytical thinking and modelWe must pay special attention to the new characteristics and new requirements presented in this round of economic recovery, and then make a refined analysis
Second, the necessity of precise control
Economic development is inseparable from macroeconomic regulation and control, and the process of economic recovery is even more inseparable from the support of macroeconomic policies. The peculiarities of this round of economic recovery process and the new characteristics of the high-quality development stage determine that the macroeconomic regulation and control and macroeconomic policy allocation that we need now must develop in the direction of precision
Under the background of economic recovery, the allocation and consideration of macroeconomic policies are different from those in the past, which are mainly reflected in the following six aspects.
First, we are now in a stage of high-quality development. High-quality development is not only a requirement for the economy, but also a general requirement for all aspects of social and economic development. There are many differences between high-quality development and high-speed growth, and the biggest difference is to focus on quality and efficiency, which is not only reflected in the production and operation of products, but also in the allocation of macro policiesTherefore, macroeconomic regulation and control and macroeconomic policies must give prominence to quality and efficiency
Second, the 2013 ** Economic Work Conference made a three-phase superposition thesis while proposing the new normal of the economy. One of the three phases is the digestion period of the previous stimulus policy, that is, the expansionary macroeconomic policy from 2008 to 2010. The word "digestion" shows that the expansionary macroeconomic policies of the past have brought about certain negative effects. As a lesson from the past, it is necessary to avoid leading to the next "digestion period of the early stimulus policy" when carrying out macroeconomic policy allocation and discussing the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control
Third, we need to coordinate development and security. We are becoming more and more aware that security is a prerequisite for development, and we are also well aware that the overall improvement of economic operation, the effective control of risks, and the stability of the overall social situation are inseparable and unified. Therefore, it is necessary to realize the allocation of macroeconomic policies in the overall planning of security and development.
Fourth, from 2008 to 2010, China implemented an expansionary macroeconomic policy, especially in the arrangement of fiscal policy, which was highly summarized as 4 trillion yuan of investment. The GDP in 2008 was 3006 trillion, GDP in 2010 was 3979 trillion, with the expansion of 4 trillion to leverage the economy of 30 trillion to 40 trillion, the proportion is about 1 10. And my country's GDP in 2022 is 121 trillion, and if it is leveraged by 1 10, it will need at least 121 trillion. If the factor of diminishing marginal benefits is taken into account, China's current fiscal revenue of 20 trillion yuan and fiscal expenditure of 24 trillion yuan may constitute an unbearable weightTherefore, we need to pay attention to the balance between the size of the fiscal sector and the demand for fiscal expansionary policies
Fifth, as mentioned earlier,The difficulties and challenges facing the current round of economic recovery process are mainly the problem of weakening expectations, and the decisive force to solve this problem should come from comprehensively deepening reforms, and macroeconomic policies can only play a supporting role
Sixth, China's fiscal and monetary policies have adhered to the word "normal" in the three years of the epidemic, which is different from the model of European and American countries. Obviously, such a relatively normal principle of fiscal and monetary policy that keeps the bottom line must be maintained
Therefore, the allocation of China's macroeconomic policies must develop to precision. Just as the main strategy of the poverty alleviation campaign lies in "targeted poverty alleviation".We should accurately allocate the limited macroeconomic regulation and control resources to the focus and focus of the economic recovery process, and implement "precise regulation and control".。The relatively rough, inclusive, and large-scale economic stimulus policies of the past are no longer suitable for the new characteristics and requirements of today's economic recovery process. Everything must be about quality and efficiency, and everything must be precise and fine, which may be the only way for macroeconomic regulation and control and macroeconomic policy allocation in the current round of economic recovery process.
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Wu Xiaoqiu: Alleviate economic difficulties and build a financial power.
Xiao Gang: Promote the sustained recovery of China's economy.
Shi Jinchuan: Improve the micro foundation of the macroeconomy and enhance the ability of supply to create demand.
Vice President Wang Yi's speech at the CMF Annual Forum (2023-2024) and the Hu Naiwu China Macroeconomic Theory Outstanding Achievement Award Ceremony.
Shi Jinchuan: Improve the micro foundation of the macroeconomy and enhance the ability of supply to create demand.
Chen Yanbin: Only when the economic growth rate achieves a reasonable level of potential growth can we promote high-quality development.
Liu Kai: Give full play to the advantages of the socialist market economy system and respond to current and future economic challenges.