Local armed forces in northern Myanmar have gradually taken control of 13 towns amid the ongoing conflict, and 11 towns, including Lao Cai and Mu Jie, are about to be conquered. This development of the situation reflects the plight of the Myanmar ** army in dealing with local armed forces. Despite their numerical superiority, the Burmese ** Army has backward tactics and lacks effective strategies and tactics to effectively respond to flexible strikes by local armed forces.
On the other hand, Myanmar's military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, may feel deep remorse for the current situation. He has been given various opportunities to try to negotiate peace with local forces, but none of these opportunities have been seized. On the contrary, he pinned his hopes on making a lot of money through the wire industry, and this short-sighted behavior only accelerated his failure. His pattern and vision doomed him to go further in the conflict in northern Myanmar.
It is worth noting that the local armed forces in northern Myanmar, such as the Raakang, De'ang, and Arakan Army, are actually relatively simple, and they only hope to obtain a high degree of autonomy. Aung San Suu Kyi's Defence Forces, however, have more aggressive goals and want to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing's regime. This is undoubtedly a huge threat and challenge for Min Aung Hlaing. Therefore, the main force of the Burmese army has not dared to mobilize on a large scale, so as not to trigger more serious conflicts and crises.
On February 1, 2021, Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested at her home by the Myanmar military and eventually sentenced to 33 years in prison. This event became a turning point in the political situation in Myanmar, which led to the declaration of the establishment of National Unity** and the formation of the People's Defence Force by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy. Their political proposition is to overthrow the army by force and regain power. In this context, unlike the local armed forces of the border ethnic groups, most of the people at the bottom of the Burmese ethnic group support Aung San Suu Kyi. It also means that if Aung San Suu Kyi's Defence Forces can be effectively organized and operated, they could be a major force in changing the political landscape in Myanmar.
However, for the Myanmar military, it is also the defense forces of Aung San Suu Kyi's faction that are most feared. Because once they gain the upper hand in the conflict, it is even possible to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing, the boss of the Myanmar ** army, just like what happened to Gaddafi. Such a situation, if it arises, will have a far-reaching impact on the political and social stability of Myanmar. Therefore, the Myanmar military must be careful in handling its relations with the Aung San Suu Kyi Defence Force to avoid triggering a large-scale armed conflict.
Despite the tensions in northern Myanmar, all parties are trying to find a balance. It will be a huge challenge for Myanmar** and the military to manage relations with local armed forces and Aung San Suu Kyi Defence Forces while maintaining national stability and ensuring the security of the people. As far as Aung San Suu Kyi's defense forces are concerned, how to properly handle their relations with the people and protect their living needs and rights while pursuing political goals will also be an important issue for them.
In general, the conflict situation in northern Myanmar is complex and volatile, and there are great differences in the interests and goals of all parties. In this process, whether it is the **, the military, local armed forces or the people, they need to maintain rationality and restraint and seek a peaceful way to solve the problem. Only in this way can peace and stability in Myanmar be truly achieved and a favorable environment for future development be created.