Since 2023, ** has soared all the way and refreshed historical records many times. According to the statistics of the reporter of "International Financial News", as of December 19, the domestic **T+D has increased by more than 15% during the year; As of December 18, London Gold was up nearly 10% for the year.
With the rise of the world, there is also a consumer "gold rush" in China. Looking ahead, will the market continue to "sing"?
The annualized return is over 6%".
As a post-95 white-collar worker, 26-year-old Xiao Zhu (pseudonym) has a different way of investing and managing money than ordinary young people - buying gold bars.
Jingle bells....The familiar alarm clock sounded, Xiao Zhu opened his sleepy eyes, touched the mobile phone next to the pillow, and looked at "today's gold price". Xiao Zhu told reporters that this Xi has been slowly cultivated since a few years ago.
The story of Xiao Zhu and Jin Zi will start in 2019. Due to coincidence, Xiao Zhu, who had just graduated from a bachelor's degree at that time, stepped into Jinxingshi Xi and stayed at work. At the beginning of her work, Xiao Zhu was still a "newcomer" to investment, but under the strong investment atmosphere around her, she also became interested in gold and slowly started her "gold buying journey".
In retrospect, I started buying gold in 2020, and I didn't buy much at first, so I bought a gold bar. Xiao Zhu said frankly that at first, he didn't dare to spend a lot of gold bars, but with the gradual deepening of his understanding of investment and trading, and the stable price of gold, he became more and more active in buying gold.
This year, the price of gold has risen very well, I have bought more than a dozen gold bars in the inland of the year, and I have nearly 30 gold bars in the past three years...This year, many friends around me have invested in **and** The income is bleak, and many people have a 'green' on their accounts, but the annualized rate of return on my investment in gold bars can reach more than 6%. Xiao Zhu said with a smile.
Xiao Zhu told reporters that the international situation is turbulent this year, the currency market is also relatively active, and the physical goods are hard currency. She admitted frankly that she is a "chopping family", and she can't help but want to spend when she has money in her hand, and she can't move the money if she changes it. "I enjoyed the thrill of forced savings that come with this gold bar."
In 2023, ** will soar all the way and refresh historical records many times. Gu Jianan, the investment consulting department of Haitong, analyzed to reporters that the first year since the beginning of this year can be divided into three stages:
The first phase is an upside from January to April**. At the beginning of the year, the market's expectations of a recession in the United States rose, and the crisis of small and medium-sized banks in the United States that broke out in March also blocked the Fed's balance sheet reduction process, and the expectation of interest rate hikes slowed down.
The second stage is from May to September, with the easing of the crisis of small and medium-sized banks, superimposed on the resilience of U.S. economic data, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the tightening of monetary policy has greatly tightened financial conditions, nominal interest rates and real interest rates have both risen, and the increase has also narrowed.
The third stage is the upward movement since October**. As the U.S. inflation data fell further, the Federal Reserve's statement was relaxed, and the market's interest rate cut expectations gradually increased, and the spot price rose by more than $2,100 an ounce to a record high.
I regret buying less".
Since the beginning of this year, the ** market has attracted much attention. In addition to investors like Xiao Zhu who have made a lot of profits from long-term gold purchases, there are also many people who pay attention to the ** market because of just need to consume.
28-year-old Xiao Shen (pseudonym) was married in November this year, and she bought nearly 50,000 yuan of ** jewelry in January. She told reporters that at that time, it was already very high, around 540 yuan grams, but she didn't expect the gold price to go all the way.
I just needed to buy ** jewelry because of my wedding, and I thought it was expensive at the time, but I bought it. At the beginning of September this year, the family felt that they still needed to buy more gold jewelry, and by that time it had risen to 596 yuan. Xiao Shen said helplessly, "I really regret buying less." ”
Speaking of whether he has the idea of investing**, Xiao Shen said, "At the beginning of the year, I didn't know that ** would continue to rise like this...If it was then, I would invest, but now ** is too high, I am afraid that it will fall, so I am still cautious. ”
Compared with gold bars, gold jewelry and other large gram gold pieces, gold beans, which can be purchased for a few hundred yuan, have become the new favorite of many young people in recent years.
The reporter's online inquiry found that in the online stores of major brands, the current sales of 1 gram of golden beans are generally around 530 yuan to 560 yuan. Some netizens said that there are a lot of **now**, claiming that they bought it for 438 yuan before; Some netizens also said that it is better to buy ** as soon as possible; However, some netizens pointed out that golden beans are actually not suitable for investment, and it is recommended to buy gold bars for ** investment....
In the view of Xu Ying, an analyst at the Orient Securities Exchange, the domestic demand is indeed very good, whether it is investment gold bars, ETF products, or jewelry. The reason behind this is mainly due to the demand for asset preservation and the change in consumption preferences of young people.
Xu Ying said, "From an investment point of view, **in the past two years**, it has outperformed most assets and provided considerable returns." From the perspective of consumption, in recent years, residents' love for ** jewelry has increased significantly with the improvement of production technology and the change of concept. ”
Of course, the price of gold continues to be at a high level, and there are many people like Xiao Shen who are hesitant to buy gold and worry about buying expensive. In this regard, Xu Ying believes that the emergence of the "gold rush" shows that high-quality assets are relatively scarce, which will also push up to a certain extent, which may cause consumers' "fear of heights".
Regarding the "gold rush", Xia Yingying, an analyst at Nanhua Nonferrous Metals, told reporters, "From the perspective of the performance of major types of assets, the overall performance of the first class this year is good, which also strengthens investors' awareness of the best in asset allocation, but it is true that we also need to pay attention to the risk of chasing up and down." ”
Li Mingyu, deputy director and senior investment analyst of Xinhu ** Research Institute, pointed out that Chinese people already have the traditional culture of "hiding gold", and the Spring Festival and the fourth quarter of each year are peak consumption seasons, and this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day super long holidays have further catalyzed the release of the pent-up wedding demand since the epidemic. In addition, with the depreciation of the RMB and the import problem leading to the interruption of the domestic gold price, the domestic gold price has been rising recently, and the market is rising more and more to promote the phenomenon of "gold rush".
In addition, Li Mingyu believes that since the beginning of this year, due to the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the pressure on the real estate market has not decreased, and other assets such as ** commodities have performed poorly, which is also a reason for the "gold rush".
Optimistic about the ** market".
2023 has come to an end, looking forward to the market outlook, will the market continue to "sing"?
Interviewee Xiao Zhu told reporters that if you look at the whole, the overall performance of the market in the past three years has been relatively good. But in stages, it is indeed very volatile and unstable. Judging from the market outlook, she said that she would firmly buy gold.
I am still optimistic about the market, and it will continue to be in the future, Xiao Zhu said that although the investment value is relatively average, the emphasis is on stability. In recent years, the performance of other assets such as ** has been a mess, and I don't plan to make much money in the past two years, I just want to keep the money in my hand, and buying gold is a good choice.
Xia Yingying told reporters that the overall situation is still expected to continue in 2024, but the pace of growth depends on the degree of recession in the U.S. economy next year and the intensity and magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts. As the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to become clearer, gold prices are expected to perform better in the second half of the year than in the first half.
Looking forward to the next year, Gu Jianan believes that with the further development of domestic policies and the further recovery of economic development, the return of other assets will rise, and the attractiveness may fall. However, from the perspective of the overseas economy next year and the Fed's monetary policy cycle, long-term holding** is still a better choice.
However, Gu Jianan also reminded, "In the short term, the market is too full of expectations for next year's interest rate cut, and the market expects that there is room for the best, and there is a risk of falling back in the short term, so it is recommended that it should not chase up in the short term." ”
In 2024**, the market may continue to revolve around a soft landing for the U.S. economy and a shift to an easing cycle of Fed monetary policy. Li Mingyu pointed out that in the first half of next year, the U.S. economy is likely to have a soft landing, or it is not enough to support stable and more optimistic interest rate cut expectations. Therefore, in the first half of 2024, the situation of "buying expectations, selling facts" may continue to be staged. For the whole year of 2024, the market is likely to remain a game between the expected difference and the fundamentals, and the expected difference is mainly due to the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts. In the future, if there is a clearer signal of the cooling of the U.S. economy, there will be a chance to rise again.
Looking forward to 2024, it is expected that there will be better performance, and the international market may break through the historical high and start a new cycle. Xu Ying believes that the U.S. economic cycle continues to decline, and the Federal Reserve will also start a cycle of interest rate cuts, interest rates are expected to fall, and the U.S. dollar index will reduce the pressure on **. At the same time, the United States has also entered the first year, global geopolitical risks come and go, and the function of hedging exchange rate risks and safe-haven assets will continue to be reflected.
In addition, Xu Ying expects that the "gold rush" will not subside quickly and will continue. However, she reminded that the risk of the market outlook lies in the fact that the current market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which is also reflected in the continuous interest rate cuts, but the interest rate cut expectations may be repeated, which will trigger short-term gold prices. From a configuration point of view, ** is suitable for long-term holding, but it also needs to be timed.