On November 28, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, delivered a speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority-Bank for International Settlements high-level meeting. The overall view expounds a series of issues about the direction of the real estate market, especially with the support of finance and policy, there are great expectations for the future development direction of real estate.
In the meeting, the president said that the current real estate has officially entered the stage of transformation, which has the following three characteristics:
First, the demand for new homes is declining;
Second, the real estate market is in a state of differentiation between cities, with first- and second-tier cities being relatively stable, but demand falling in third- and fourth-tier cities
Third, urbanization continues and rental demand is increasing.
In addition, he singled out that a report from S&P showed:The sentiment and ** of China's real estate market have begun to normalize, and the real estate market is expected to have bottomed out.
According to Kerry data, in the past year, the stock of ordinary residential houses and sales in the five districts of Fuzhou have been reduced, and the stock of new houses has been in the process of shrinking from 2022 to the present, and the destocking cycle has also dropped from 18 months in 2022 to 17 months now.
Therefore, it is not difficult to see that there are two characteristics of the new housing market in Fuzhou:
1. The stock of housing is gradually decreasing, and the amount of residential land is small, or the enthusiasm of developers for land acquisition is not high.
2. The demand for new houses is decreasing, and the peripheral real estate can only be usedPrice for volumeFor example, most of the real estate projects in Minhou have begun to dive.
For more new houses, you can pay attention to the specific new housing land transactions and transactions of Kerry.
The variance between first- and second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities is gradually widening, especially in small cities in the fourth and fifth tiers. The development of real estate is always inseparable from the support of the population, and the development of supply and demand needs to be at a balanced fulcrum. In recent years, according to my observation of the property market in Fuzhou, the places where housing prices have plunged seriously are mainly concentrated in the periphery.
For example, the Quantou plate in the north of May Fourth, the green city willow shore Xiaofeng;Minhou Nantong's China Railway Jiangwan Yuecheng;Both second-hand and new houses in Mawei have seen significant price reductionsThere are other places that will not be explained one by one, if you pay attention to him, you will not be unfamiliar with these real estate, and you will not feel too much to describe it with the word halving.
Housing prices in the city center are more value-preserved, which means that the transaction volume here is more active in the area with high population density and bustling business in the city center, and the house price will be relatively preserved.
Not to mention the small cities of the fourth and fifth tiers, in terms of industry, supporting facilities, population, economy, income, many aspects are inferior to the first and second tier cities, and then there will be a decline in demand, which is also normal.
Rental demand has been growing in recent years, on the one hand, it is the employment problem of college students, on the other hand, during the housing price period, more people are willing to choose to rent and wait and see, which is in line with the logic of the current rental demand growth.
Fuzhou is currently waiting for rent ** total ยทยทยท sets, the average rental price is 2,300 yuan, and the lease of each year is forgotten in the two months after the Spring Festival, as well as in July and August every year. Most of the rental groups after the year are mainly migrant workers, while the group in the month is mainly rented by college students, or the location of junior high school is changed to the middle district.
According to a platform, in Fuzhou's leasing market in March and April, more than 5,000 units of leasing transactions in the five districts in a single month may also underestimate the entire leasing market in Fuzhou. In addition to normal housing rental, there are also a considerable number of affordable housing, low-rent housing, etc.
Finally, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, also said:The sentiment and ** of China's real estate market have begun to normalize, and the real estate market is expected to have bottomed out.
The bottoming out of real estate indicates that all aspects are more optimistic about China's real estate, especially under the support of financial policies, and the economic income balances the development of real estate. In addition, the new reform of real estate, the commercialization of commercial housing, no longer restricting the development of developers, and the introduction of affordable housing have made young people with dreams no longer give up the pursuit of ideals because of housing problems.
At present, real estate has entered the bottom, especially the new real estate has been relatively stable, as a developer their volume is relatively large, you can follow the policy, housing prices will be lowered, housing prices will rise, and the action is very rapid.
At present, the real problem lies in the second-hand housing owners, the individual price reduction rate is relatively slow, at this stage buyers have begun to have some confidence, Fuzhou's second-hand housing market is very obvious. But whenever you adjust to a lower position, this type of house is not at all worried about not having buyers.
In the past six months, the average monthly second-hand housing transaction volume in Fuzhou is about 3,000 units, and as a second-tier city, it has been very stable with such a transaction volume.
As for whether it can be **, I would like to give you a suggestion:
But if the second-hand owner is willing to adjust the ** to meet your psychological expectations, then it is basically the ** price. The developer's future space will not be very large, and you can be psychologically prepared.
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