Housing prices are an eternal topic and a sensitive one. In China, the rise and fall of housing prices affects the hearts of millions of families, and also affects the country's economic and social stability. In recent years, with the regulation and market changes, housing prices have increased to varying degrees, especially in some areas of third- and fourth-tier cities and some first- and second-tier cities, and the magnitude of housing prices is surprising.
Hangzhou's housing prices have recently come out with amazing data: some communities have ** 77 in a year6%, and 8 communities fell by more than half in a year. This made many netizens can't believe their eyes, thinking that this is someone playing a numbers game, how can housing prices fall so badly?
In fact, this is just a microcosm of house prices, and this round of house prices will break our common sense, such as house prices will never be, otherwise banks will collapse;Housing prices** can cause residents to lose wealth, affect consumption and investment, and so on.
These may seem like hard facts, but when they do happen, we will find out that maybe they are not so scary. It was only after the collapse of housing prices that I was shocked.
Historically, Hainan and Japan have experienced the bursting of housing price bubbles, and if you don't believe it, let's take a look at their crash patterns.
01 The housing price in Hainan collapsed that year, and **46 in 1 year7%, and it took 17 years to recover
Hainan was the first region in China to experience a housing price bubble and the first to collapse housing prices. In the early 90s of last century, Hainan attracted a large number of investors and property speculators because of the boom of special zone policies and development and construction, and housing prices soared, reaching 10,000 yuan per square meter at the peak, exceeding the housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai.
However, the good times did not last long, in 1993, ** introduced a series of regulatory measures, restricted credit and land**, cracked down on speculation, Hainan's real estate market immediately fell into a cold winter, housing prices began to be sharply**, within a year **467%, and the lowest fell to 200 yuan per square meter, a drop of 98%.
The collapse of housing prices in Hainan has brought a huge impact on the local economy and society, many developers and buyers have gone bankrupt or fled, many real estate and houses have been idle or demolished, many people have lost their jobs and income, and even committed suicide and **.
It took 17 long years for Hainan's housing prices to recover from collapse until 2010, when they returned to their 1993 levels, during which time they were lower than the national average and lower than Hainan's economic growth.
02 Housing prices in Japan collapsed, and land prices in 6 core cities were 65%.
Japan was the first country in the world to experience a housing bubble and the first country to collapse housing prices. At the end of the 80s of last century, Japan's economy was in a stage of rapid growth, and the financial market and real estate market also showed a booming scene, and housing prices climbed all the way, reaching 4 million yen per square meter at the peak, equivalent to 250,000 yuan, exceeding the housing prices of any country in the world.
However, the good times did not last long, in 1989, the Bank of Japan introduced a series of tightening policies, raised interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, tightened credit and money**, Japan's financial market and real estate market immediately fell into crisis, housing prices began to be sharply**, from 1990 to 2005, the land price in Japan's six core cities ** 65%, the lowest fell to 1.4 million yen per square meter, equivalent to 8 yuan750,000 yuan, a decrease of 65%.
The collapse of housing prices in Japan has had a huge impact on Japan's economy and society, many banks and companies have bad debts and losses, many home buyers and investors have fallen into negative equity and debt difficulties, many people have lost confidence and motivation, and the Japanese economy has fallen into stagnation and recession for more than 20 years, known as the "lost two decades".
03 What does today's housing price trend portend?
From the history of housing price crashes in Hainan and Japan, we can see that the formation and bursting of housing price bubbles are due to excessive prosperity and speculation in the financial market and real estate market.
When the housing price bubble bursts, the magnitude and duration of housing prices will far exceed our imagination, bringing profound impacts and consequences to the economy and society.
Nowadays, China's housing prices have also shown a trend, especially in some third- and fourth-tier cities and some first- and second-tier cities. Does this mean that China's housing prices are also at risk of collapsing?
There is no one definitive answer to this question, because the rise and fall of housing prices depends not only on the supply and demand of the market, but also on the policies and attitudes of the market, as well as the psychology and expectations of the society.
However, what we do know is that there is indeed a certain degree of bubble in domestic housing prices, especially in some hot cities and regions, where the proportion of housing prices and residents' income and economic growth is unbalanced, and the housing prices are mainly due to the easing of credit and currency, as well as the demand for investment and speculation by residents.
At the same time, the first has been regulating housing prices, both macro financial and monetary policies, as well as micro land and tax policies, the goal of the first regulation is to maintain the stability and reasonableness of housing prices, to prevent housing prices too fast or first, the means of regulation and control are diverse and flexible, according to different cities and regions, take different measures and strength.
Write at the end
To sum up, we can see that this time the house price ** may fall below everyone's glasses, but there is no need to panic and pessimism, because the rise and fall of house prices is not static, but changes with the change of the market, the ** of house prices is not useless, but has advantages and disadvantages, and the ** of house prices is not irreversible, but it is possible to recover.
We should use a rational and objective perspective to look at the housing prices, neither blindly follow the trend, nor blindly resist, neither blindly optimistic, nor blindly pessimistic, but according to their actual situation and needs, make reasonable and appropriate choices, not only consider their own income and expenditure, but also consider their own risks and benefits, not only consider their own present and future, but also consider their own family and society.