Regarding Goldman Sachs' global currency, interest rate and emerging market strategy bigwigs talking about the investment minefield in 2023, Wall Street has bet heavily on the economy of China in the post-epidemic era, and optimistically guesses that Big A can rise by 15%. As a result, Big A did not give face, falling by more than 15%, while other emerging markets were living quite well.
Goldman Sachs' Kamakshya Trivedi confided two lessons during her visit.
First, he cautioned against the need to distinguish between emerging markets (em) and non-Chinese emerging markets (em ex-China), because our assets have been uncorrelated with other emerging markets** and bonds for some time.
Second, he stressed that even in the headwinds of the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes, the dollar's flexing of muscles, and our economic slowdown, emerging markets are generally tough and show good resilience.
In addition to the big A, emerging markets** actually made 16% this year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which includes the big A, is up 44%。Big A accounts for nearly 30% of the weight in this index. The most disappointing thing in emerging markets this year is the slow train of the big A economy, although it is cheap, but it has become a big pot that drags its feet.
The reason why the market of developing countries can hold up is mainly due to policy measures. Seeing the dark clouds of inflation, these emerging market banks hastened to raise interest rates, and they have acted big, fast and proactively. And these markets are playing better in advance than many developed markets, which is a big boon for them, and this macro mix is much brighter than in the past, which is good news for emerging market assets.
Is the A-share bull market coming?