"Can't make money!”
"Money is hard to make!”
- Probably the most talked about topic this year. "The bad state of the economy is certainly a tragedy for most people. ”
Everyone is more aware of inflation, that is, the money in their hands is becoming more and more "worthless". Since there is inflation, there is relative deflation, referred to as deflation, which refers to the phenomenon of a decrease in the amount of money in circulation, or a continuous decline in the overall price level. Deflation is generally considered to occur when the inflation rate is below zero (negative inflation rate).
Prices** are a precursor to deflation. While the rest of the world has been trying to cope with the rapid cost of living this year, trying to curb inflation, our country is currently facing the opposite problem of prices.
Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday (December 9) showed:In the first 11 months of this year, the national consumer consumption index (CPI) was 03%。
Among them, last month, that is, in November,The national consumer consumption index (CPI) fell by 05%, a decrease of 03 percentage points;Month-on-month, it decreased by 05%。
With the title of "Generally Stable and Low Operation Situation is Expected to Ease - Interpretation of November Price Data", China**.com interpreted the CPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday (December 9), and quoted Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, to say that from the perspective of demand changes, the demand for goods and services is continuing to recover. From the perspective of monetary conditions, market liquidity is generally reasonable and abundant. Judging by these factors,**The situation of low-level operation will gradually ease
And then the tone of the CPI data is obtained:"Domestic prices remained stable on the whole."。Therefore, the major ** have reported on the analysis of CPI data in a low-key manner.
However, CPI data showed that figure was higher than that of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters**, the biggest drop since November 2020.
In other words, our country is currently in a state of deflation.
People who don't understand will ask: "Isn't it better to deflation if inflation makes our money worthless?"”
Of course not!From an economic point of view, deflation is more terrible than inflation!
First, the lack of demand leads to losses and then reduces production or closes down. Second, assets are soft and liabilities are hard. Third, it will lead to increased unemployment and a decrease in household income, which will exacerbate the shortage of aggregate demand. Fourth, oversupply leads to high unemployment, and a large number of loans cannot be repaid, and banks will form a pile of bad debts, which will directly lead to major problems in the financial system, or even collapse.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that the overall decline in terminal consumption and upstream industry in November exceeded expectationsThis reflects that China's current situation of low prices has not been completely reversed, domestic demand is weak, and the supply of the first chain is oversupplied.
In Wang Jun's view, the recovery of China's CPI in the first few months is temporary, and does not mean that the downturn trend has changed. "China is still plagued by deflation and has not yet gotten out of this situation," he said. This is a problem that officials must face squarely. ”
China's economy has faced multiple headwinds this year, including rising local debt, a sluggish real estate market, and sluggish domestic and foreign demand. Bloomberg economists expect the risk of deflation in China to persist into next year without sufficient stimulus to boost the sluggish property market.
Of course, there is no need to be pessimistic about the current deflationary situation. It is believed that the state will stimulate domestic demand, curb the decline of the country, maintain the basic stability of prices, and promote the orderly recovery and development of the economy by increasing investment. Convinced"China's economy has maintained steady and positive development."
Text: Social Zhengjun Internet**, infringement is deleted immediately, thank you).