Domestic chips are 14nm, and Meixin is 5nm, and in the event of a war, it may have an impact on the war situation
At the end of 2022, TSMC's factory in Arizona started construction, marking the beginning of the 5nm era for Finechip, which will be upgraded to a 4nm process in 2024 and a 3nm era in 2026.
In fact, since the end of December 2022, after TSMC officially announced the mass production of the 3nm process, Apple and Qualcomm have placed orders with TSMC, which is expected to be shipped in the third quarter of 2023.
Looking at domestic chips, SMIC represents the most advanced process, and can only achieve mass production of 14nm process at present. It is 5 nanometers different from the second-generation Meixin process and 3 nanometers from the third-generation TSMC.
So the question is: if there is a war one day, what problems will arise in the domestic chip industry?And how do we deal with it?
What is the gap between chips?
We all know that there is a big gap between domestic chips and advanced chips, so what is the specific performance?
The first is the architecture of the chip.
Architecture is the foundation of chips, and it is a specification defined by chip manufacturers for the same series of chips in order to distinguish different types of chips.
At present, there are two camps of chip architecture, one is represented by the x86 architecture of Intel and AMD, and the other is represented by the ARM architecture. These two architectures account for more than 95% of the market share.
The third largest architecture, RISC-V, has been considered mainstream in the future, despite its current small market share. Founded in Berkeley, California, USA, the biggest feature is that it can be used freely, allowing anyone to design, manufacture and sell.
There are many domestic tablet computers, such as Loongson, Zhaoxin, Kunpeng, Haiguang, Feiteng, Shenwei, Kirin, Huben, etc., but most of them use third-party architecture.
Kunpeng, Feiteng, Kirin, and Huben adopt ARM architecture;Haiguang and Zhaoxin adopt x86 architecture;Shenwei uses Google's outdated alpha architecture. Only Loongson uses the company's self-developed Loongarch architecture.
According to the country's core restriction order, Arm refused to let us use the NeoverseV1 and N2 architectures developed some time ago, and it is difficult to get high-performance chips from x86.
In the event of a war, the chips of the ARM and X86 architectures are basically useless, and the only ones that can be used normally are probably Loongson.
Currently, Loongson is only used in desktops, servers, mobile phones, and embedded devices, in small quantities, and Loongson has set Intel back about 5 years globally.
Second, chip design tools.
It can be seen from the Kirin chip that our strength in chip design is still very strong, and we can be the international leader. However, when it comes to EDA software, we are clearly lagging behind.
EDA is an abbreviation for Electronic Design Automation, which is the tool needed to design wafers, and we also call it EDA tools.
At present, the world's major EDA software vendors, namely Liankai Electronics and Siemens EDA, are for new SI technology, which are obviously European and American companies.
These three EDA tool companies are not only leading in 5nm and 3nm technology, but also have their own advantages, while controlling more than 70% of the market share and monopolizing the market below 7nm.
Although the mainland enterprise Huada Jiutian has inherited the mantle of Panda Software, it is with"The Big Three"The gap is far from satisfying the design of 16nm wafers, and there are only 500 technicians, which is far lower than the design team of the Big Three of several thousand.
Therefore, it is used by the world's most advanced integrated circuit design and manufacturers"Big three"EDA tool.
Third, wafer fabrication.
Wafer fabrication has always been our weak point, TSMC and Samsung have now achieved the goal of 3nm mass production, and Intel is about to mass produce 7nm process.
Mainland chipmaker SMIC has achieved 14nm mass production, lagging behind TSMC, Samsung 3rd generation, and Intel 2nd generation.
As a result, even if Huawei HiSilicon succeeded in designing the new, state-of-the-art Kirin 9000 and 9010, it would not be able to produce them.
The most terrible thing is that in addition to professional manufacturing technology, manufacturing technology and equipment have become the most fatal weakness.
Fourth, semiconductor equipment.
When it comes to semiconductor equipment, especially EUV lithography machines, we are still at a disadvantage even in the long run.
The EUV lithography machine brings together about 2,000 companies with advanced technology in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries to manufacture extremely precise chip manufacturing equipment.
ASML in the Netherlands is the only integrator with 10% of the underlying technology.
The difficulties of EUV lithography technology mainly lie in the light source, lens, workbench, infiltration system, precision bearing, etc., and it takes more than ten years or even decades of technical precipitation to overcome these technologies.
At present, Shanghai Microelectronics is able to manufacture 90 nanometer lithography machines, which lags behind the three generations of EUV lithography machines in terms of accuracy.
Many netizens and even some experts fantasize about overtaking in corners, but in reality it is simply impossible. It has to be iterated from generation to generation.
For example, the lithography lens of Shanghai Microelectronics is the Changchun Institute of Physics"Eight years of gnawing hard bones"to achieve a breakthrough. And the breakthrough of the back-end is even more difficult.
5. Semiconductor materials.
Semiconductor materials are inevitably needed for chip manufacturing, and silicon wafers, electronic gases, masks, polishing slurries and polishing pads, photoresists and optical auxiliaries, wet chemicals, and sputtering targets are known as the six major semiconductor materials.
These six major semiconductor materials account for 87% of all materials, and they are used in large quantities and have a very high utilization rate.
At present, these six materials are mainly controlled by Japan, the United States, and South Korea, and the domestic materials not only have a very low share, but also lack in quality, technology, patents, etc.
Although Shanghai's domestic silicon material industry, Nanda Optoelectronics and other semiconductor material enterprises are developing rapidly, it is still difficult to meet the huge domestic demand.
Overall, architecture, EDA tools, manufacturing, EUV lithography and semiconductor materials are still the biggest obstacles to the development of domestic silicon wafers, and these problems still need to be solved.
So, will these deficiencies manifest themselves in war?
War needs chips.
Modern warfare is very different from the cold weapons of the past and the machinery of World War II.
Aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, satellite navigation, reconnaissance satellites, intercontinental missiles, cruise missiles, anti-satellite missiles, missile defense systems, fighters, bombers, AWACS and other modern ** will come in handy.
Even tanks, armored vehicles, rockets, etc., tend to be upgraded with a large number of electronic devices.
These ** have one thing in common, that is, they are equipped with a large number of aerospace chips.
For example, the F22 fighter is equipped with a 500-nanometer PowerPC603 chip, and the Beidou navigation satellite is equipped with a 180-nanometer Loongson-1E chip and a Loongson-1F chip. The Perseverance rover uses a 250nm Power750CPU.
The common denominator of these chips is that the process is very large, and the stability, radiation resistance, high and low temperature resistance, impermeability and dust resistance are excellent.
The working environment of these chips is between -55 and -125, and requires auxiliary circuit and backup circuit design, multi-level lightning protection design, double transformer design, anti-interference design, multiple short-circuit protection, multiple thermal protection, ultra-high voltage protection, etc.
The aerospace-grade chip process is not refined, but the cost is very high. Take 2016 as an example"Loongson 1e"with"Loongson 1F"The price of ATMELAT 697 reached tens of thousands of yuan, while the imported atmelat 697 reached 200,000 yuan.
It can be seen that once the war starts, it is to burn money.
In a short-term, small-scale war, it is still possible to use the existing **, but in a protracted war like Russia and Ukraine, it is necessary to produce ** and chips 24 hours a day.
On the positive side, industrial-grade chips are basically 28-nanometer process chips, and the manufacturing cost is lower than that of aerospace-grade chips, and the maintenance cost will not be too high.
The working environment of industrial-grade chips is between -40 and -185, and the design requirements are multi-level lightning protection, double transformer design, anti-interference design, short-circuit protection, thermal protection, ultra-high voltage protection, etc.
It also includes waterproof, anti-corrosion, moisture-proof, and mildew-resistant treatments.
Industrial-grade chip with self-test function, the cost is slightly higher, but the maintenance cost is relatively low.
At first glance, it seems that the weapons industry does not need high-end chips below 14 nanometers, and domestic manufacturing can fully meet them, but there is one thing we have forgotten, that is, the role of supercomputing in warfare.
First, the application of supercomputing in the core.
First of all, maintain and store nuclear data to ensure the security of nuclear arsenals;Secondly, simulate the nuclear ** and support the nuclear ** research and development update.
Second, the application of supercomputing in meteorological warfare.
In the future, meteorology will become a factor affecting the repeated use of troops, and the US military has regarded meteorological analysis technology as one of the main development directions of the first technology, and plans to control 200 square kilometers of regional meteorology by 2025.
Once you master the weather**, you can create artificial rainfall, droughts, and hurricanes, leaving your opponents in the middle of floods, droughts, and hurricanes.
It can also create laser beams to shoot down enemy fighters and microwaves to jam the adversary's communications and radar systems.
Third, numerical wind tunnels.
The numerical wind tunnel calculation is carried out by supercomputing, and the relevant data is obtained, and more aerodynamic characteristics can be obtained after analysis and research.
Numerical wind tunnels supported by supercomputing in the design process of equipment such as hypersonics**, fighter jets, spacecraft, etc. plays an increasingly important role.
Fourth, genes**.
Genetics are lethal to overpopulated countries, and it can target specific groups of genetically opposed individuals.
With the help of supercomputers, human gene sequencing has been completed. The study of genes is getting deeper and deeper, and the demand for supercomputing is also increasing.
In the future, with the improvement of supercomputers, genes will also be continuously improved, and once used in actual combat, it will undoubtedly endanger the entire human race.
In addition, supercomputers have great advantages in analyzing battlefield situations, simulating actual combat, and conducting deductions, so supercomputers have become a necessity for all countries.
However, at present, in the ranking of the world's top ten supercomputers, only two Chinese have been shortlisted, Sunway Taihu Light and Tianhe-2, ranking sixth and ninth, respectively.
The key is that among the top 10 supercomputers, the mainstream is still Intel's x86 architecture chip, in addition to using IBM chip computers, Tianhe-1, Tianhe-2 and other early Chinese supercomputers also use this architecture.
Nowadays,"The light of Sunway Taihu Lake"A state-of-the-art multi-core processor is used"Kamui 26010", but its structure is still an acquired structure, not a purely national level.
Therefore, in the event of a war, short-term military chips can be satisfied, but supercomputing will obviously feel overloaded.
If it enters a protracted war, chips, tools, equipment, materials and other architectures will be threatened by shortages.
Consumer chips.
The deadliest domestic chips are consumer chips, smartphones, personal computers and wearable devices.
Many netizens think that these are inconsequential, but in fact they are not. These chips can maximize consumption, stimulate the economy, and create foreign exchange.
The economy is the cornerstone of the development of industry, agriculture, military, science and technology.
Take Russia, for example, which inherited the mantle of the Soviet Union and has a very strong armed forces. Russia is the only country in the world that has a triad of nuclear strike capabilities, the other is the United States, which our country does not have.
In terms of intercontinental missiles, Russia is still the first in the world, and in terms of nuclear submarines, it is not far behind. When it comes to rocket engines, fighter engines and transport aircraft, Russia remains a world leader.
However, after the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia's performance has been very different, not showing the demeanor of a fighting nation and the world's second military power, and the main reason for this is still economic problems.
The economy has limited the development of chips in Russia, and for the normal use of the chips, chips can only be removed from refrigerators and dishwashers, and tank factories have even stopped production because of chips.
Therefore, consumer chips are very important, it is the carriage of economic development, and the economy is the cornerstone of the armed forces, and the two are interrelated and affect each other.
The gap between domestic 14-nanometer wafers and American 5-nanometer cores is huge, and once a war breaks out, a huge gap will be revealed.
Although conventional**, aircraft carriers, missiles, aircraft, satellites, etc. are not limited by wafers, supercomputing, which is the biggest driving force, will be limited, which in turn will affect the entire war situation.
Consumer chips will be more impacted, directly affecting the economy, and then affecting industry, agriculture, the military and many other fields.
Therefore, the lag of chips affects the whole body, and only by striving for independent research and development, breaking the blockade, and achieving leadership, can the situation be completely changed.