According to the data, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in the mainland continued to decline in November. Among them, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing ** expanded, and the number of declining cities increased to 69, a record high. According to the analysis, the lack of market confidence is still the main reason.
Recently, Beijing and Shanghai, two first-tier cities, have adjusted and optimized their policies related to house purchase on the same day, involving reducing the down payment ratio, reducing mortgage interest rates, and adjusting the standard of ordinary housing. However, according to the data of the China Index Research Institute, from December 10 to December 16, the overall transaction area of first-tier cities increased by 35% month-on-month26%；Among them, the transaction area of Beijing is 12050,000, an increase of 250%, a year-on-year increase of 461%；The transaction area of Shanghai is 26530,000, an increase of 538%, down 68%。
Market analysis believes that Beijing and Shanghai have vigorously optimized the property market policy, which is in line with market expectations as a whole, and the activity of the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai is expected to increase in the short term, and it is expected to further stabilize the first expectation. At the same time, it will help reduce the buyers, the threshold for buying a house and the tax burden, and better support the demand for rigid and improved home purchases.
Shanghai Centaline Real Estate Market Analyst Lu Wenxi.
*Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Finance Office, recently mentioned in response to economic hotspots that the opportunities for China's economy will outweigh the challenges in 2024. From the perspective of the domestic situation, the main risks are manifested in the blockages in the economic cycle, including the lack of effective demand, and the lack of strong willingness of residents to consume and enterprises to investOvercapacity in some industries;Social expectations are weak, and enterprises are reluctant to invest and dare not investThere are still many hidden risks, and it takes a process to resolve the real estate, local debt, and financial risks accumulated over the years.
Citi Wealth Management.
Ligang Liu, Chief Economic Analyst, Asia Pacific.
Real estate is an important part of China's economic development, and the relevant person in charge of the Finance Office recently said that the first priority in 2024 is to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of the real estate market, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, and do not draw loans, continue to lend, or hesitate to lend to real estate enterprises in normal operation, so as to better support the demand for rigid and improved housing.
At the recent National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also emphasized that the real estate work in 2024 should be implemented and the work should be done in four major sectors and 18 aspects. Including city-specific policies, one city, one policy, to achieve a balance between real estate supply and demand;Intensify the implementation of the first and second housing policies;Implement territorial responsibilities for the delivery of buildings, strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds, and accelerate the reform of the pre-sale systemMeet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination. According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, since November, five major banks, including industry, agriculture, China, construction and communications, have invested more than 30 billion yuan in development loans to non-state-owned housing enterprises.
Senior China Strategist at ANZ.
Xing Zhaopeng. In fact, business development confidence has been recovering, judging from the latest manufacturing PMI situation, China's production index in November PMI was 507%, remaining above the critical point for 6 consecutive months. From the perspective of the development expectations of the enterprises themselves, the expected index of production and business activities of manufacturing enterprises is 558%, up 02 percentage points, in the high boom range for 5 consecutive months.
In order to better implement the implementation of policies related to economic work, China's national government recently said that it will strive to achieve the main expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year, increase macroeconomic regulation and control, and prepare sufficient policy tools to deal with various risks and challenges.
Spokesperson of China's national state.
Li Chao. According to the data, the CPI of the Mainland's household consumption** index fell by 0.0% year-on-year in November5%, while the industrial producers** index PPI fell 3% year-on-year over the same period. The analysis pointed out that the recovery momentum of the consumer side strengthened in the third quarter, and with the precise support of macro policies and the weakening of the base effect, the drag on some areas is expected to gradually weaken.
JPMorgan Chase. Zhu Haibin, Chief Economist of China.
As for how to exert macro policies in 2024, the **Finance Office** pointed out in the recent interpretation of the **Economic Work Conference that the meeting proposed to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, first establishing and then breaking, and more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stable growth, and stable employment, and cautiously introducing contractionary and inhibitory measures. The market believes that the follow-up fiscal policy and monetary policy are expected to strengthen coordination, focusing on both short-term fluctuations and medium- and long-term structural optimization.
Editor: Xu Zhiwei.