In the Chinese market, local automakers have won French, Korean and American cars, and the share of Japanese cars has plummeted this year. At the same time, China's automobile exports surpassed Japan's and were widely publicized by some of the **.
However, the recent article "Toyota's financial report for the first half of the year announced the sum of more than 15 independent car companies" made industry insiders suddenly sober. Chinese brands win the market but lose profits, how long will this situation last?
The profits of China's leading companies are less than half of Toyota's
Recently, Toyota Motor announced its financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2024 (April 2023 to March 2024) (April September 2023), and its profitability has embarrassed the leading local car companies.
According to a report, "Toyota Motor has raised its operating profit target for the current fiscal year to 4 from 3 trillion yen previously5 trillion yen (301.)US$500 million), which is equivalent to about 220.6 billion yuan. In comparison, BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 was 1662.2 billion yuan, SAIC 1611.8 billion yuan, Great Wall Motors 826.6 billion yuan, GAC Group 806.8 billion yuan, Changan Automobile 779.8 billion yuan, Dongfeng Motor Group 1026.5 billion yuan. In other words, the combined profits of these large domestic car companies are not half of Toyota's. ”
It is worth noting that Toyota is this year's profit, Chinese brands are last year's profits, and except for BYD, most Chinese brand car companies are likely to have lower profits this year than last year.
Therefore, there is a ** given the title of "Toyota's first half financial report announced the sum of more than 15 independent car companies".
Japanese cars have temporarily collapsed in China
The overall performance of Japanese cars in China this year has been poor, but Toyota's performance in the global market is remarkable.
Since Toyota's earnings report is as of the end of September, let's take a look at the performance of Chinese and Japanese passenger cars in the first three quarters. According to the data of the Passenger Association, the cumulative wholesale of Chinese brands in January and September 2023 was 977970,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 279%。The share of Chinese brands increased by 5% year-on-year2 percentage points to 551%, not only breaking 50% for the first time but also hitting a record high.
During the same period, the cumulative sales of Japanese cars were 263050,000 units, an increase of only 1 year-on-year8%, and the overall market share fell to 148%, down 24 percentage points.
In contrast, Toyota's financial report shows that the group's Toyota and Lexus vehicles have produced a total of 505 in the first half of fiscal year 2024820,000 units, an increase of 12 percent from the same period last year87%, setting a record for production in the first half of the year;The cumulative global sales volume is 517240,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 907%, which also set a new record.
Clearly, Toyota's profitability is supported by global sales growth. What is the business status of local car companies that have seized half of China's "country"?In early November, I wrote an article entitled "Three Quarterly Reports of 8 Listed Car Companies: Most of the Revenues Increase but Do Not Increase Profits" was widely written.
What is the reason why Chinese brands win the market but lose profits?Traditional fuel vehicles suffered heavy losses in the ** war;The development of BEVs (pure electric vehicles), "OEMs are working for battery factories", and "more than 100 passenger car electric vehicle brands in China are truly profitable electric vehicle brands".
Toyota, on the other hand, sold 182 new energy vehicles globally in the first half of the fiscal year600,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 381%。From a structural point of view, new energy vehicles account for 35% of Toyota's total global sales3%；In terms of growth rate, Toyota's new energy vehicles surpassed the average growth level of China's industry (1 September, China's new energy passenger car wholesale growth rate was 36.1%）。
The above data reflects that Toyota's new energy vehicles do not seem to be weak.
How can Chinese brands break the game?
Fuel vehicles are shrinking, and BEV profitability is poor. As a result, in the past two years, traditional car companies have shifted their strategic focus to PHEV (plug-in hybrid). The result?
In terms of growth rate, PHEV has surpassed BEV this year. According to the data of compulsory traffic insurance, the sales volume of BEV in January and October 2023 was 387370,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 261%；PHEV sales were 178120,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 928%。BEV sales accounted for 22% of the total insurance coverage of passenger cars4%, share ** up 31 percentage point;PHEV sales accounted for 10 percent of the total3%, a year-on-year increase of 45 percentage points.
From the perspective of profitability, PHEV has become the driving force that drives the average sales price of the new energy vehicle market.
Statistics from Beijing Zhengzheng Dacheng show that in 2021, the average cumulative market sales price of new energy vehicles in China will be the same as the cumulative market sales average price of BEVs, which is 1830,000 yuan;In 2022, with the development of some PHEV products, the cumulative average market sales price of new energy vehicles will rise to 1860,000 yuan, but with the cumulative market sales average price of BEV (18.80,000 yuan) is still a gap;In the first 10 months of this year, more PHEVs made efforts, and the average cumulative market sales price of new energy vehicles rose to 2050,000 yuan, with the average cumulative market sales price of BEV 1990,000 yuan is a significant increase. This indicates that as PHEV sales grow, its profitability is highlighted.
From micro **, more and more companies are increasing the launch of PHEV. In January this year, Geely's PHEV insurance volume accounted for only 20 percent of the total number of new energy vehicles78%, which rose to 35 in October43%；During the same period, Chang'an PHEV accounted for 3135% rises to 5045%, Great Wall PHEV from 2820% to 6602%, the number of Leap PHEV models in January was 0, and the proportion rose to 17 in October50%。The above process reflects that China's automobile is on the right track for the coordinated development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles.
Back to the theme: Can Chinese cars surpass Toyota?Theoretically, it's not impossible. China is the only country in the world with all industrial categories, and Chinese auto brands have experienced a leap from scratch, from small to large, from weak to strong.
How can Chinese brand cars surpass Toyota?Personally, I think it is to start from learning Xi the essence of lean production management, step by step, continue to make profits, accumulate quantitative changes, and leap forward in qualitative changes, and don't be fooled by the view of "changing lanes and running first".