Long-term sideways unpopular over-falling stocks have always been one of the directions that hunters focus on. The state-owned local gas company, which holds about 50% of the shares, has seen its share price fall from a maximum of 16 yuan to a minimum of 6 yuan (before the stock price is reweighted), and has been sideways around 8 yuan for more than 5 years.
no.1 Although Anhui Natural Gas only mainly carries out the construction and operation of natural gas long-distance pipelines in Anhui Province, as well as city gas and other businesses, from 2018 to the present, the company's net profit for four consecutive quarters has increased from 11.4 billion liters to 34.8 billion, a record high, of which, in the first three quarters of this year, it recorded 30.1 billion, which has exceeded that of last year, achieved a year-on-year increase of 435%。
However, the performance of the stock price is very different from the growth of profits, since 2018, it has almost been in the original swing, the lowest is only 6 yuan, the highest is only 9 yuan, and most of the time it hovers around 8 yuan (before the stock price is reweighted). This strange phenomenon seems to contradict common sense, but if you turn the clock back to before 2018, it seems that you can clear the clouds.
no.2 said that Anhui natural gas in 2017 after the New Year's Day logged in A shares, like other new stocks, the listing was speculated, on the first day of listing after the harvest of 44% of the rise, and 6 consecutive limits, at this time the stock price has soared to 20 yuan (the stock price has not been restored), compared to less than 8 yuan of the issue price, those who participated in the offline subscription institutions and the fortunate online "winning" darling, made a lot of money.
At this time, the company's PE valuation has been blown to 58 times, which is more than double the average valuation of the whole gas industry, and more than several times higher than the valuation of some of the best stocks (such as the best stocks in the financial, consumer and other industries). Of course, the valuation of 58 times did not discourage investors, and in the following four months, the valuation continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 90 times, and the stock price was speculated to 26 yuan (the stock price was not reinstated).
For a regional gas company with a 90 times PE, at least the hunter feels that such a valuation makes him shudder, and he can't start at any time, but the number of shareholders at that time has reached 720,000 households.
Subsequently, due to the sustained strength of the above-mentioned ** high-performing stocks, the capital siphon effect brought about by the relatively high valuation of small-cap stocks began to have a liquidity crisis, in other words, the funds that had participated in the speculation began to break their arms to survive, and some of them used relatively low ** In exchange for the advantage of time, they were able to leave the market in time, and more people may be trapped in this, this crisis has continued until 2018, and the share price of Anhui Natural Gas also fell to less than 7 yuan in February 2018 (the former compound price), compared with 16 yuan (the former compound price) when 90 times PE was valuated, it has fallen by more than half.
Looking back on the year of Anhui natural gas listing, the stock price is like a roller coaster, writing a capital inverted v on the chart, which is also the doom that many A-share listed companies cannot escape, after the fact, rational thinking, in fact, its performance is still in place, the company's operating conditions have not changed substantially, but some people have become Xi to the feeling of being blown up by the valuation bubble, and the pleasure of immersing themselves in the game of drumming and passing flowers.
no.3 Since it is a valuation bubble, it is destined to burst. Even in February 2018, the share price of Anhui Natural Gas has fallen back to less than 7 yuan, but its valuation is still close to 40 times, fortunately, it is a state-owned gas company with a relative monopoly advantage, compared with those private companies without safety cushions, its operating conditions as long as the major shareholders do not toss, the probability is still relatively stable. In other words, in the past, the company's valuation fluctuations far exceeded the range of performance changes, and in the following years, with continuous growth in performance, slowly digesting the former valuation, the current PE has dropped to 12 times, and the number of shareholders who stick to it has also dropped to 170,000 households, but the process of valuation return is not easy, and it takes more than 5 years to leave.
It is worth mentioning that in the past 5 years, a well-known foreign-funded institution, UBS AG (UBS), has entered the top ten circulating shareholders of the company 4 times, namely in the first and third quarters of 2019, the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2023.
END hereby declares that the above views are only a summary of the hunter's investment research, and may not be suitable for others, let alone as investment advice).