12.13 (Wed).
PTA-101, MEG-31 today, polymerization cost 62072。
1.International oil prices
The US CPI data showed that inflationary pressure still exists, and the market is worried that the Federal Reserve may still maintain high interest rates, coupled with the poor demand outlook, and the international oil price soared ** yesterday.
As of December 12, the nymex***01 contract was at 68$61 barrel, down 380%；
ICE Oil **02 contract at 73$24 barrel, down 367%。
China's main force fell 09 to 5499 yuan barrel, down 22 in the night2 to 527$7 barrel.
2.PTA Trend
Today's PTA spot price fell 101 yuan to 5629 yuan ton.
On the cost side, the overnight cost support collapsed, dragging down the supply and demand of PTA spot futures. At present, the fundamental valuation of PTA is high, and the raw materials are accelerating their return to a weak pattern.
All in all,Under the weak cost and demand expectations, PTA** may decline with the raw material side in the short term. The actual trend needs to pay attention to the **, px trend and the actual supply and demand.
3.PET trend
**And raw materials are substantial**, today's PET market ** has been lowered.
On the cost side, the overnight plunge dragged down polyester raw materials, and the center of gravity of the PET market fell with the raw material sideOn the supply and demand side, there is no sign of improvement in PET supply and demand, maintaining a stable increase and weak downstream demand. After today's **price**, some downstream took advantage of the low price**, and the on-site transaction improved.
In summary,Under the weak cost and supply and demand, the PET market may be weakly adjusted in the short term. The actual trend still needs to look at the **, PTA trend and demand quality.
1.Polyester plant dynamics
Yisheng Dalian PTA device is loaded
Yisheng's 23.75 million tonnes PTA plant in Dalian was put into operation in SeptemberAt present, the load has been increased to about 9%.
A set of ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi was overhauled
Shaanxi 1.8 million tons per year of syngas to ethylene glycolOverhaul of a line is scheduled to begin on December 20 and is expected to last about a month;The construction of the remaining two lines remains normal.
2.The US CPI growth rate in November was month-on-month
Unexpected speed-up
The data display showsThe year-on-year growth rate of the non-seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States slowed to 3 as expected in November1%, but the month-on-month growth rate unexpectedly accelerated to 01%。
Traders now expect the Fed's first rate cut to take place in May 2024. And the frustration in expectations of an early rate cut by the Fed means that the risk of a hard landing for the economy is greaterAs a result, yesterday's international ** hit a new 5-month low, and gasoline ** hit a 2-year low.
3.The EIA has been revised down this year and next year
The United States and the United States are expected to be oil
EIA Releases Short-Term Energy Outlook ReportThe report lowered the forecast for the United States and Burkina Aires for this year and next year.
Lowered 2023 Brent forecast** to 82$40 barrel, lowering the 2024 Brent forecast** to 82$57 barrel.
At the same time, the 2023 WTI ** forecast was lowered to 77$63 per barrel, lowering the 2024 WTI forecast to 78$07 barrel.
4.API shows a decrease in U.S.** inventories
API data from the United States shows thatLast week, U.S. ** inventories fell, while gasoline inventories and distillate inventories increased.
In the week to December 8, API** inventories were down 23490,000 barrels, with an expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels and distillate inventories by 300,000 barrels. Inventories in the Cushing area of the United States increased by 1.4 million barrels during the same period.
For nowThe market is awaiting the release of data from the US Energy Information Administration on last week's US ** and refined product inventories.
As of December 13,The PET processing fee is 5928 yuan ton.
Data**:p ET matching platform.
Note: The processing fee is less than 600 yuan, and the polyester factory produces at a loss, suggesting that the current PET** is too low. The processing fee is in the range of 600-1000 yuan, the polyester factory is meager and profitable, and the current PET** is at a normal level. The processing fee is higher than 1000 yuan, the profit of the polyester factory is better, and the current PET** is slightly higher. ）