Reuters said on December 29**, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that after a strong performance in 2023, gold prices are expected to be further in 2024, and it is expected that buying in the market will come from safe-haven, banks and ETFs (exchange-traded).
According to the U.S. Commodity Exchange Commission, as of December 26, the net long positions of New York*** speculative positions held by fund managers (mainly safe-haven**) and other large traders increased by 32% to 207,718 mouths.
The world's largest ETF, the State Street Wealth Index (SPDR Gold Shares, GLD), decreased its holdings by 1 on the 29th44 tons to 87911 tons, a decrease of 38 for the whole year of 20235 metric tons or 42%。
Germany's *** group Heraeus reported that while the gold price** tends to drive money into ETFs, this is not the case in 2023;Therefore, if the gold price continues to climb, the demand for ETF investment in 2024 is likely to grow further.
The World Association reported that global central bank net purchases in Q3 were 337t, down 27% from 459t in Q3 last year, but still the third strongest quarter since statistics began.
In the first three quarters of this year, net purchases by central banks increased by 14% year-on-year, reaching a record high of 800 tonnes over the same period. Compared to the whole of 2022, global central banks netted **1,136t**, a record high.
In 2023, gold, silver, platinum and palladium will rise and fall respectively. 2%、-6.8% and -38%, the gold price performance is the highest among major commodities.
The 2023 average gold price of US$1,956 per ounce is an all-time high for the annual average gold price. According to a Reuters poll, analysts on average expect the average gold price in 2024 to be 1,986 per ounce$50.
Gold price in 2023**135% and hit a record high, mainly due to safe-haven demand boosted by geopolitical tensions, including in the Middle East, and the impact of market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2024, ** bullish expectations will continue to advance, as geopolitical tensions continue to push the dollar and Treasury yields lower.
The U.S. in 2024 may also add to policy uncertainty and boost safe-haven demand.
The World Association's 2024 outlook predicts a 75-100 basis point cut followed by a 40-50 basis point decline in long-term government yields, which could push gold prices by 4%.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (J. Morgan).p.Morgan) expects gold to break through after mid-2024 and expects the Fed to target $2,300 an ounce after a rate cut. UBS reported that gold is expected to reach $2,150 an ounce by the end of 2024 if the expectation of a rate cut materializes.
According to FEDWATCH, a Federally Calculated Market Expectations Monitoring Tool by CME Group, there is more than an 86% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in March.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, believes that if the Fed cuts interest rates in March, it will indicate that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession, which is not the message that the Fed wants to send.
Wells Fargo expects the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year. TD** (TD Securities) believes that as economic growth slows, the Fed will cut interest rates by 250 basis points this year, with the first rate cut in May. Commerzbank also expects the first rate cut to be in May, with a 200 basis point cut for the year.