Executive Summary:In the 40 years of reform and opening up, the wealth created has been replaced by a pile of reinforced concrete, leaving all kinds of liabilities by the way.
In the past 40 years, the whole society has been dragged into a 30-year debt cycle. Some people say that if it is liberalized in 2023, it will definitely usher in a comprehensive recovery, right?
I'm not optimistic anyway. If you set a keyword for 2023,It must have been the first year of debt repayment. 1. Who is paying the debt?
After three years of not being able to work normally, everyone will definitely be desperate to make money in 2023.
But the biggest use of the money earned is neither consumption nor investment, but debt repayment.
The house slave with a 30-year mortgage is the one who pays the debt;In the past three years of the epidemic, countless indebted businessmen have also repaid debts.
In the past, the economic situation was unbridled and ahead of time consumption, but as a result, the situation deteriorated, and incomes plummeted, and young people who could not repay their loans were also debt repayers.
A large number of young people have fallen, and a large number of old people have been brought out to help their sons repay their debts and help their daughters repay their debts, and they will start to repay their debts throughout the year, which must be the trend in 2023.
Limited consumption and investment are just scraps squeezed out of the teeth in addition to repaying debts.
In 2022, the total debt of residents will exceed 200 trillion yuan, and the per capita debt will exceed 140,000, and more than 87% of young people will be in debt.
After three years of the epidemic, the people have no money to spend in their hands, and consumption will remain weak, and domestic demand will not be able to pull at all.
I saw a comment like this on the Internet, all policies are implemented to solve problems.
For example, for a period of time, various stable prices indicate that prices are about to rise or have risen.
If you start ambushing real estate, it means that real estate is going to fail.
If you start to encourage consumption in large quantities, it means that the money is not easy to make, everyone is cautious, and consumption cannot go up.
In short, the purpose of the policy is to appease the masses and to maintain social order, which just shows that things are accelerating in the opposite direction of the policy.
Is it difficult this year?Just take a look at this year's news. If the economy is in good health, you won't see it in three days
The foreign trade index has risen sharply, the grain harvest has been bumper, the consumption index has soared, and the sales of automobiles have soared.
This kind of news, if it appears occasionally, is good, if it appears frequently, but anyone who can think independently knows it, it shows that the problem is already very serious.
Looking at the near future, a debt cycle is far from over, and when residents' spending power can be restored, at least it will need to wait for the end of the previous debt cycle.
A family is a microcosm of the whole society, and if the 30-year mortgage cycle is not repaid, the consumption power will not be released.
Looking at it from a distance, in addition to the debts of ordinary people, there are also urban investment bonds, national special bonds, huge foreign debts of real estate enterprises, and so on, all of which cannot be repaid in a short period of time.
In short, 2023 may begin to move towards a good trend, and various landing indicators may begin to pick up. But you will never feel the slightest relaxation, because the climb must be the most tiring.
Let's pay off our debts together in 2023 and pay off the debts we owe before.
As for those who are debtless, congratulations, as long as there is not a penny of foreign debt, you have exceeded 90% of the Chinese.
Being able to avoid the traps of the past shows that you are not a simple person.
Second, why not yet?Debt People before the age of 40 have not experienced an economic crisis and are generally optimistic about the future.
Thinking that his income will continue to rise, he dares to spend in advance, and he dares to overdraft and take a heavy mortgage for the next 30 years.
However, in every fast-growing society, there will be some times when there will be flooding.
It was not only caused by credit expansion, but also by the expansion of domestic demand, the influx of foreign capital, and so on, which together created a temporary prosperity.
But many people are blinded by the flood period, and they think that they can make money by doing something.
So I desperately tried to get enough of those things that in fact my social rank was not worthy of.
When income returns, so does the assets**. Because purchasing power cannot support the ** of assets in the overvaluation period,So it must be a double crit. But what won't change?StarbucksThe ** will not change,iPhoneThe ** will not change,Airline ticketsThe ** will not change,Oil pricesIt won't change ......And yoursThe amount of total liabilitiesIt won't change ......If we cannot maintain the past level of cash flow, then all the advanced investment and consumption are destined to become a booster to accelerate the return to poverty. 3. Improve cash creativityIn fact, many people's success is not because this person is powerful, but more because he just happened to hit a certain development outlet.
In the past 40 years, China has developed rapidly, and many people have only reached the roof of buildings by taking various macro or micro elevators.
And once the elevator is gone, they don't really have the ability to climb to the top floor on their own.
The era of making money from houses has passed, the era of high-paying option dividends has passed, and the era of selling everything has passed.
Excellent cash flow creation ability and diversified understanding of investment are essential abilities to live well in this era.
In 2020, I left the financial industry, which many people call the "golden job".
At a time when the market is leveling down and my career is going well, my fear is growing day by day.
Give up a six-figure salary and a glamorous and decent management position. When people make this choice in middle age, many people are surprised!
In retrospect, the fear at that time came from a premonition of the illusion of prosperity, so I simply suffered and received the punishment in advance.
Although these words were not on the hot search at that time, such as involution and 35-year-old crisis, my subconscious repeatedly told me: all this is an illusion. However, with the gradual disappearance of dividends during the high-speed issuance of the industry, more and more people are soberly aware that the real estate that has not risen in the account for thousands of years is no longer an effective means of investment, so a new concept was born"Investment is the exchange of 'cash' for 'cash flow'". The focus of investment is not to invest, but to change. It is to use your current cash in exchange for a more stable cash flow in the future, that is, income. For example, if you continue to spend money to learn new skills, from the TV era to the search era, to the live broadcast era to the AI era, you have never been left behind: then your cash flow will continue, and so on. Now, I don't have the anxiety of going to work, I don't have to live a trembling life, I worry all the time, what if this job is gone?Because I have lived as a one-person money-making company, one person + AI = a whole team. I have a lot of free time, and my income is much more generous than at work, so I have a lot of time to gather with friends all over the country to receive new information and upgrade my thinking and brain. 
And now I have paid my debt. This debt is not a monetary debt, but also a cognitive and mental debt.
Forget the illusion of getting rich overnight, admit that a large part of what you have gained in the past is luck, and then put your feet on the ground and re-establish the moat for the rest of your life.
The state of a person's life today is determined by the choices he has made in the past five years. And the state of your life in 5 years depends on your current layout.
If you are also exploring the road of independent survival, you can find me to ** together, the full name is the same name, the blue heart dual-domain closed-loop realization, you can come to my dual-domain closed-loop practical knowledge circle, and fully experience the overall layout and landing plan.