Zebra consumption Chen Biting.
In 2023, the total box office of Chinese films will be 5420.4 billion yuan, 12 moviegoers8.2 billion people. No surprises, no disappointment.
During the adjustment period of the film and television industry, some new trends are forming, the market's dependence on specific schedules such as Chinese New Year files, domestic films up, imported films down, and so on.
Of course, the biggest surprise is the disappearance of the traditional film giants. This year, Bona Films, Wanda Films, Guangguang Media and Huayi Brothers, which originally held the top position in the box office list, have lost windows and folded one after another.
For no other reason, the film inventory in previous years was gradually depleted, and the counter-cyclical led to a lack of production capacity and a lack of high-quality product supply in the market. So we saw that the New Year's Day stall also fell short without accident.
The next 2024 Chinese New Year will be a key battle to test the confidence of the film market, who can be the flag bearer?
Drive high and go low
At the end of 2023, the Chinese film market has handed over its report card.
According to data from Lighthouse Professional Edition, last year, the total box office of Chinese films was 5420.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8099%, 12 moviegoers8.2 billion people, a year-on-year increase of 8006%。Although there was no expected retaliatory growth, it finally held the bottom line of steady recovery.
Last year's increase in total box office was largely due to the increase in movie ticket prices. From 2017 to 2019, movie ticket prices remained stable at around 35 yuan, and the average in 2023 reached a record-breaking 4229 yuan.
Therefore, with the recovery of the number of movie theaters and the natural increase in movie ticket prices, the full return of the film market should not have to wait too long.
Judging from the box office performance of various periods throughout the year, the Chinese film market in 2023 can be regarded as a typical high start and low walk.
Spring Festival stalls, with a total box office of 750.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149%, ranking second in film history, second only to 2021;Among them, "Man Jianghong" and "The Wandering Earth 2", the final box office was 454.4 billion and 402.9 billion yuan, both of which entered the top ten in film history.
There are not many overall highlights in the May 1st file;In the subsequent summer file, there were many surprises, "Disappearing Her", "In the Octagonal Cage", "Thirty Thousand Miles of Chang'an", "Fengshen Part 1", "All or Nothing" and many other films continued to relay, and finally won a box office of more than 20 billion yuan, refreshing many records such as box office, number of shows, and number of people in the summer file.
However, after the summer file, the market fell silent, and the big hits were completely absent. "Solid as a Rock" and "Predecessor 4", which were pinned on high hopes, ended hastily, and the box office barely stood at 1 billion yuan.
The top 10 movie box office rankings in 2023, 9 of which are from January to August. The last two-thirds of the time, almost all garbage time.
In addition, the biggest change in the Chinese film market has emerged: domestic films are up, and imported films are down. In 2023, the box office of imported films will be 933.3 billion yuan, accounting for 1722%, up from the peak of 46 in 201757% has already fallen sharply.
If you take into account the excellent results achieved by the Japanese anime "The Journey of Suzuya" and "Slam Dunk" last year, the Hollywood movies that originally called for wind and rain have completely died down.
In the early days, box office records in Chinese film history were often controlled by Hollywood blockbusters, and movies such as "Fast and Furious" and "The Avengers" made a lot of money in the Chinese market.
From 2020 to 2022, the particularity of the film market disrupted the Hollywood film industry and the rhythm of the launch of imported films. By 2023, the trend of long-term and long-term elimination will be even deeper: last year, the top ten movies at the box office were all domestic films.
Hollywood's growing marginalization in the Chinese film market has its own reasons, but it is more due to the rise of Chinese film companies and the maturing of audiences – from passively accepting the bombardment of Hollywood's visual spectacle to actively choosing entertainment consumption.
Moreover, the cold performance of Hollywood films in the Chinese market makes it difficult for related companies to make profits, which will affect the enthusiasm of the industry chain, forming a vicious circle, and finally fixing this market pattern.
The giants disappear
Although Chinese films have formed an overall "east wind over west wind" for Hollywood, this window of opportunity has not allowed local companies to rain or dew. In China's film industry, there is a clear differentiation.
In the early years, Chinese cinema (600977SH) is a super giant, as well as 4-5 private film companies, Huayi Brothers, Bona Films, Wanda Films, Guangguang Media, etc., forming the inherent pattern of the film market.
In those years, no matter how the top camp of the box office rankings changed seats, there were only a few top players. Everyone has also formed their own unique skills, Huayi Brothers is deeply bound to Feng Xiaogang, Bona Film has a big country theme, Wanda Film's Chinatown detective series, Guangguang Media relied on urban emotions in the early stage and Guoman in the later stage.
A few years ago, the rise of Beijing culture replaced the status ......of the original LeTV movie, and the happy twist shined but was short-livedOther than that, not much has changed in the industry.
In recent years, this pattern of stability has been broken. Newly formed industry giants such as Huanxi Media and China Ruyi have gradually replaced the traditional five private film companies, and they can be called new traditional giants.
Huanxi Media (1003.)HK) was founded by producer Dong Ping in conjunction with Ning Hao, Xu Zheng and others, and later bound to directors such as Zhang Yimou, Chen Kexin, Wong Kar-wai, Zhang Yibai, Gu Changwei, Huang Bo, Jia Zhangke, etc., and his representative works in 2023 include the annual box office champion "Man Jianghong".
Ke Liming, who stepped into the film and television industry from the financial industry, founded China Confucianism around 2008, and although he did not have many masterpieces in film investment, he was good at capital operation and worked in the film industry.
In this industry, the absolute control of capital is weakening, and the producer's voice is improving. The most typical is Chen Sicheng, Han Han, Ning Hao and others, who have gradually upgraded from workers in capital to "capital" itself.
Actor Chen Sicheng launched Chinatown's most commercially valuable film IP Detective Chinatown, and later established the film company Yitong, invested in the "Manslaughter" series, as well as this year's "Disappearing Her" and "In the Octagon Cage", becoming the mainstay of the 2023 movie box office list.
After Han Han's passion shifted from writing and racing to film, he established his status in the film and television industry through "After the End", "Riding the Wind and Waves", and "Flying Life". Tingdong Pictures, which he founded, was invested by Bona Films. Although "Four Seas" hit the streets, "King of the Sky" and "Unfamiliar with Life" invested by Tingdong Pictures took over the May 1st file, and Han Han supported the basic plate of the May 1st file.
Andy Lau paved Ning Hao's film path, and Ning Hao also supported a group of directors, including Guo Fan, director of "The Wandering Earth", Wen Muye, director of "I Am Not the God of Medicine" and "Miracle Stupid Child", and the director of the dark horse "All or Nothing" in 2023.
The rise of various new film forces has its own reasons. They emphasize the quality of their works, try the short, flat and fast mode in the film and television industry, and are good at using short marketing - often the editing of several classic shots with the Divine Comedy can immediately attract a group of audiences into the cinema.
However, the more critical reason lies in the collective decline of traditional private film companies. In 2023, among the top 10 movie box office lists, there is only one Guangguang Media (300251SZ) is the main investment and main control of "Solid as a Rock".
Bona Film (001330.)SZ), suffering from the aesthetic fatigue of movie audiences. Moreover, the cycle of these big productions is too long, resulting in the company temporarily failing to warm up from the cold winter of film and television.
Light Media is similar, not only the production of the main theme has degraded, but even the identity of the flag bearer in the Guoman market has been replaced by light-chasing animation, and "Thirty Thousand Miles of Chang'an" has broken through against the trend.
Due to the personnel changes and investment reductions caused by the parent company, Wanda Film's film investment sector has performed sluggishly, leaving only the cinema business still smiling.
Huayi Brothers, after that year, has been in a slump, has been in a vicious circle of liquidity pressure, lack of masterpieces, company losses, and affecting cash flow.
In 2023, Beijing culture, which has returned from the catastrophe, has regained hope of revival by relying on the inventory "Fengshen Part 1" invested many years ago, but it has become the biggest surprise among traditional giants.
When the shuffle is in progress
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the ** sexual news of the film industry is one after another. Among them, the most explosive is Wanda Movies (002739SZ) changed hands.
In the cinema market, Wanda Films has a box office market share of 165%, has been ranked first in the country for 14 consecutive years. At the same time, with its industrial advantages, Wanda Film was also a leading film and television investment company. Wang Jianlin once said that movies are a business without a ceiling.
However, with the increasing listing pressure of Wanda Commercial Management and the liquidity pressure of Wanda Group, the control of Wanda Film was transferred to China Ruyi (0136.).hk）。
The synergy between cinema chains and film and television investment has been tried and tested in the past 20 years of industrial development. Next, China's Confucianism, which is like a tiger, is expected to impact the next generation of the industry's hegemon, a financial practitioner, who is about to sweep the film industry.
Recently, Wanda's "Three Teams" was released, and it is launching an emergency rescue for the company's performance and the film industry at the end of the year. However, none of this has much to do with Wang Jianlin.
Huayi Brothers (300027SZ) In order to save himself, he can't care about those face-saving things. The old IP remake released in Hong Kong stocks, "If You Are Honest Do Not Disturb 3", Feng Xiaogang came out again. However, the main investment and control were replaced by China Film, which shows how powerless the Wang brothers are.
This New Year's Day, the film market still continues the two major trends in 2023: open high and go low;The giants disappear
On January 1, the box office of the movie was only 33.1 billion yuan, only a little stronger than last year, far less than 60.3 billion yuan, 47.2 billion yuan.
The Three Teams" counterattacked by word of mouth, but the box office was less than 600 million in 18 days after its release, and it missed the hit;"If You Are Honest Do Not Disturb 3", it was released for 3 days, and the box office was only about 50 million yuan, which is really hitting the street, and the box office of Maoyan Professional Edition was only 1 yesterday0.6 billion yuan, which is likely to set the lowest box office record for Feng's comedy.
Other movie giants almost disappeared on New Year's Day. On the contrary, some little-known film companies are trying to make a big deal during the New Year's Day holiday.
In addition, at the end of this year, some subtle changes are taking place regarding Beijing culture and its life-saving "Fengshen" series, such as a round of controversy caused by directors and actors, and rumors of reshoots at the end of the year.
All of the above, whether it is the high and low opening of the movie box office this year, or the rise of new forces taking advantage of the decline of the old giants, to a large extent, is due to the product window period caused by the gradual depletion of film inventory in the past few years.
Because of the long production cycle, low probability of hits, high investment risk and other reasons, the film industry is a market that relies heavily on brand appeal and channel inertia.
Counter-cyclical, the positive cycle of the industry is broken. The market lacks a good supply of products, moviegoers don't buy it, film companies can't make money (or even fall into crisis), investment enthusiasm is weakened, and it is difficult to launch excellent product ......
Therefore, the current downturn in the film industry may continue for a while.
The 2024 Chinese New Year will be a key battle to test the confidence of the film market. At present, there is only one movie scheduled for Ning Hao's "Mr. Red Carpet", with the blessing of Andy Lau and other stars, and the comedy movie with an ironic theme is a typical Chinese New Year film.
Wanda Films does not have the next "Detective Chinatown", can Chinese Films, Bona Films, and Guangguang Media pull up the audience's expectations?
The other expectation is that everyone is looking forward to the inventory for several years, "Mermaid 2", "749 Bureau", etc., can they be taken out to boost the film market?