A November that exceeded expectations
1.1 monthSociety as a wholeElectricity consumption is at an all-time high
According to the National Energy Administration, data disclosureIn November, China's electricity consumption was 763 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 116%, far exceeding market expectations. According to the data, the monthly value of electricity consumption of the whole society in November this year hit a record high, and the year-on-year increase in November was the highest in the same period in 13 years. Overall,Seasonal effects are the main driving factor.
In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 9.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 122%；The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 527.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 98%；The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 132.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 209%；The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 93.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 100%。The electricity consumption of the secondary industry maintained a high increase, and the industrial added value in November was 6 year-on-year6%, the highest since March this yearThe trend of industrial acceleration is obvious. In addition,The ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of the tertiary industry was mainly due to the low base factor in the same period last yearThe year-on-year increase in November last year was the lowest in nearly five years, at only 369%。
According to the calculation of the titanium **appIn November, the electricity consumption of the primary industry accounted for about 1 percent of the electricity consumption of the whole society26%, down 01 percentage point;The secondary sector accounts for about 6916%, down 085 percentage points;The tertiary sector accounted for about 1731%, an increase of 03 percentage points;The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents accounts for about 1227%, an increase of 065 percentage points. In the case of the increase in the total amount, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and the proportion of domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased, which indicates that the recovery trend of the tertiary industry is good.
1.2 "Feng Shui Rotation" power generation
The monthly power generation in November 2023 is year-on-yearGrowth8.4%, comparativelyLast month, it grew by 32 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of a new high this yearIn terms of power varieties, hydropower generation increased by 5% year-on-year in November 20234%, down 16 from the previous month4 percentage points;Wind power generation increased by 26% year-on-year6%, an increase of 39 from the previous month7 percentage points;Photovoltaic power generation increased by 35% year-on-year4%, an increase of 20 from the previous month1 percentage point;Nuclear power generation decreased by 2 year-on-year4%, down 2 from the previous month2 percentage points;Thermal power generation increased by 6 percent year-on-year3%, an increase of 2 from the previous month3 percentage points;
Overall,November waterLifaThe speed of electricity growth falls, windforce, photovoltaics as wellFireElectricity generationThe growth rate is accelerating, nuclear powerPower generationYear-on-year decline. The growth rate of hydropower generation has fallen mainly withPrecipitation decreases in Novemberrelated, according to the China Meteorological Administration, in 2023The national average precipitation in November was 218 mm, year-on-yearReduceWindLifaThe electricity mainly benefited from the change from decline to increaseWind powerInstalled capacity growthAs of the end of October 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China was 404 GW, a year-on-year increase of 156%。The changes in the growth rate of photovoltaic power generation and nuclear power generation are mainly affected by the base effectThe growth of thermal power generation is likely to reduce the gap in replenishment of hydropower.
2023 is in full swing
2.1. Electricity consumption has increased substantially, and the industrial structure has been optimized and upgraded
On December 19, according to the data disclosure of the National Bureau of Statistics,From January to November, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 8,367.8 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 63%, up from 3 for all of last year9%, andExcept for January, this year has maintained a stable high year-on-year growth rate month by month。On December 19, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in December, and Li Chao, deputy director and spokesman of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the current national electricity demand is at a historical high. On December 17, the highest electricity load in the country was 124.2 billion kilowatts, 83 million kilowatts higher than the peak of last year's heating season, a record high for the heating season. Combined with the low base effect in December last year, the year-on-year increase in electricity consumption is expected to exceed 63%。
From the perspective of industries, from January to November this year, the electricity consumption of the primary industry totaled 117.3 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 115%, a year-on-year increase of 1202%；The electricity consumption of the secondary industry totaled 5,517.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 61%, a year-on-year increase of 155%；The cumulative electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1,512 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 113%, a year-on-year increase of 441%；The total electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 1,220.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 11%, a year-on-year increase of 138%。
Electricity consumption is a "barometer" of the economyOn the whole, our country is the first.
The growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries has accelerated this year, far exceeding last year's level, which shows thatThe industrial and service sectors have recovered significantlyIn addition, when the overall electricity consumption is on the rise, the proportion of electricity consumption in the secondary industry has decreased slightly and the proportion of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry has increased slightlyIt shows that the tertiary industry is recovering faster than the secondary industry.
2.2. The total power generation capacity has grown steadily, and the scale of new energy power generation has accelerated
From January to November this year, China's total power generation increased by 4 percent year-on-year8%，Last year, the year-on-year growth was 22%。In terms of power varieties, hydropower generation decreased by 5 year-on-year73%, a year-on-year increase of 1% last year;Wind power generation increased by 18 percent year-on-year02%, a year-on-year increase of 123%；Photovoltaic power generation increased by 27% year-on-year7%, a year-on-year increase of 2468%；Nuclear power generation increased by 4 percent year-on-year54%, a year-on-year increase of 25%；Thermal power generation increased by 6 percent year-on-year09%, a year-on-year increase of 09%。
Overall, only the growth rate of hydropower generation fell throughout the year, while the growth rate of the rest of the power generation accelerated. The overall growth rate of hydropower generation has declined, mainly due to the decrease in precipitation. According to the data of the National Climate Center, the average precipitation in the flood season (May to September) is 4471 mm, a year-on-year decrease of 43%；During the main flood season (June to August), the national average precipitation is 3201 mm, a year-on-year decrease of 35%。The acceleration of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation is mainly due to the growth of installed capacityAs of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity of the country was about 28500 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 136%。Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation is about 5600 million kilowatts, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 499%；The installed capacity of wind power is about 4100 million kilowatts, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 176%。It is worth noting that due to the "involution" of the photovoltaic industryThe year-on-year increase in installed solar power capacity has far exceeded the year-on-year increase in photovoltaic power generation. The acceleration in the growth of nuclear power generation benefited from seasonal effects and the impact of new nuclear power plantsFor example, the successful commissioning of Unit 3 of the Fangchenggang Nuclear Power Plant in Guangxi Province of CGNPC. The acceleration of the growth rate of thermal power generation is mainly due to the surge in electricity demand for high temperature in summer and heating in winter in China this year.
2.3 Thermal power is facing the dual pressure of high demand and energy conservation and emission reduction
In 2023, with the recovery of the post-epidemic economy, various industries will fully resume work and production, and the demand for electricity will increase, especially in the central and western regions, rural areas, heavy industry and other fields. At the same time, electricity demand far exceeded the same period last year, due to the high temperatures in summer this year and the surge in electricity demand for heating in winter. Thermal power, as the power source that undertakes the best guarantee of China's electric power, is also "full power" this yearAccording to the data, from January to November 2023, the cumulative cumulative installed capacity of thermal power increased by 39% year-on-year66%，Far more than -16 in the same period last year53% and show the opposite trend.
However, with the strengthening of national policy support and supervision for carbon neutrality and carbon peakingThermal power is also facing higher environmental pressure and cost pressure. Coal power is the main form of thermal power generation in China, and traditional coal power generation will cause a lot of air pollution at the same time. In this regard, the state is also actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of coal-fired power this year, encouraging coal-fired power enterprises to carry out technological upgrading and transformation, improving energy efficiency, reducing pollution emissions, and promoting the sustainable development of the coal-fired power industry. For example, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued it in DecemberNotice on the Establishment of a Coal-fired Power Capacity Electricity Price MechanismThe notice decided to establish a price mechanism for coal-fired power capacity from January 1, 2024A two-part tariff policy will be implemented for coal-fired power。Among them, the electricity price is formed through marketization, and the capacity price level is gradually adjusted according to the actual situation such as the progress of coal power transformation. The notice is an important measure to promote the transformation and upgrading of the coal-fired power industry and improve energy efficiency. By establishing a price mechanism for coal-fired power capacity, we can promote the technological upgrading and transformation of coal-fired power enterprises, improve energy efficiency, reduce pollution emissions, and promote the sustainable development of the coal-fired power industry.
2.4. The participation and absorption capacity of new energy power generation are insufficient
New energy is an important development direction of the power market in the future, but the participation degree and consumption mechanism of new energy in China are not perfect enough. For nowNew energy power generation projects in some areas have not yet entered the marketAnd in parts of the regionThe entry income of new energy power generation projects is less than expected. The high-quality and dispatching technology of new energy power generation on the consumption mechanism also needs to be improved to better meet the requirements of power grid safety and stable operation.
In this regard, the China Electricity Council said that it should be the first to doOptimize the scale, layout and timing of new energy development in a timely manner. Reasonably promote the progress of new energy construction, strengthen the supply and demand monitoring of the new energy industry chain, put an end to the disorderly and vicious competition of raw materials, and ensure the orderly development of the upstream and downstream of the industry. Increase the coordinated planning, collaborative development and joint dispatch of regional renewable energy, and give full play to the role of new energy in energy supply。
The second is to effectively improve the capacity of new energy consumption. Accelerate the construction of inter-regional and inter-provincial UHV channels, and improve the capacity of new energy transmission in power grid regions such as the northeast and northwest. Coordinate the coordinated development of new energy projects and supporting power grid projects, accelerate the transformation of distribution networks, increase distribution capacity, and ensure the effective consumption of distributed power generation. We will improve the trading mechanism for green certificates, smooth the channels for purchasing green electricity and green certificates, expand the scale of green certificates and green electricity transactions, and implement the responsibility of the whole society to jointly promote energy transition. Accelerate the introduction of new energy consumption mechanism policies for large bases and Shage famine.
Finally, it is necessary to improve the effective utilization rate of energy storage. In the case of promoting the rapid development of new energy, combined with factors such as local consumption situation, grid structure, load characteristics, power supply structure, new energy development, etc., the proportion and scale of new energy storage are scientifically calculated and determined, and the unified scheduling and shared use are used to maximize the multiple roles of energy storage in promoting new energy consumption, peak regulation and frequency regulation, and power support.
Overall, in 2023, China's thermal power will give full play to its role as a backstop, new energy power generation will continue to maintain a high growth, and China's power generation structure will be further optimized and upgraded.
3.Outlook for power generation in 2024
In 2024, China's economy is expected to continue to recover, and the demand for electricity consumption in the whole society will grow steadily. The growth rate of thermal power generation and the growth rate of new installed capacity have slowed down, and the thermal power generation mode will be further structurally optimized. The growth rate of new energy power generation will maintain steady growth, and the proportion of new energy power generation in the total power generation will be further increased.
In terms of thermal power generation,Affected by this yearThe reason for the high base and special weather influencesIt is expected that the growth rate of thermal power generation and new installed capacity in China will slow down in 2024. Under the influence of China's dual carbon policy and energy transition, thermal power is expected to be further green upgraded. Our country has been established since January 1, 2024Electricity price mechanism for coal-fired power capacityThe implementation of a two-part electricity price policy for coal-fired power will promote the technological upgrading and transformation of coal-fired power enterprises and improve energy efficiency.
In terms of new energy power generation, first of all, the ultra-high growth rate of new energy power generation investment this year also shows that China's new energy power generation will continue to exert force next year. As of November this year, the country's major power generation enterprises have completed an investment of 771.3 billion yuan in power projects, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 396%。Among them, photovoltaic power generation was 320.9 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 605%；nuclear power was 77.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 453%；wind power was 202 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 337%。The power grid project completed an investment of 445.8 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 59%。
Secondly, the "Notice on Further Accelerating the Construction of the Electricity Spot Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") has promoted the increase of China's total new energy power generation in the future and optimized China's power generation structure. The "Notice" clarifies the importance of renewable energy participation in electricity spot market transactions, and makes specific requirements and incentivesNew energy is further involved in electricity market transactions. The "Notice" pointed out that in areas with a high proportion of distributed new energy installed capacity, it is necessary to promote the participation of distributed new energy on-grid electricity in the market, explore effective mechanisms for participating in the market, and emphasize the exploration of new ways such as "new energy + energy storage". In addition, taking into account the characteristics of new energy that it is difficult to be accurate in the long term, in order to better adapt to the demand of new energy to participate in the spot market, the proportion of annual medium and long-term contract signing is appropriately relaxed for provinces with a high proportion of new energy. At present, more than 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have participated in the local electricity spot market transactions of new energy power generation projects across the countryUnder the guidance of the policy, new energy is expected to fully participate in the electricity spot market in the future. This will further promote the increase in the total amount of new energy power generationAt present, China's new energy power generation accounts for about 10% of the total power generation, and the proportion is expected to further increase in the future, optimize China's overall power generation structure, and promote green development.
(This article was first published in Ti **app, written by Gu Shuo.), editLiu Yangxue
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