This week** showed an overall adjustment trend, but the magnitude was not large. Shanghai Composite Index**031%, Shenzhen Component Refers to **121%, GEM **06%。However, next Monday's ** is expected to be more complicated. This article will analyze the trend of next Monday from two details, and its influencing factors.
The GEM is in a bearish trend, and the short, medium and long-term ** are all declining gently. There is no crossover between the five weekly lines, and there is a certain deviation rate, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also located below these five weekly lines, indicating that the bearish trend is obvious. It is particularly worth noting that in the weekly chart of the GEM, the 60-week line representing the bull-bear split line is also in a downward trend, indicating that the current ** is still in a bear market. The 60-week line plays an important role in the trend, and once the index breaks above the 60-week line, it usually enters a bull marketConversely, a break below the 60-week line means a bear market. The current GEM index has been running below the 60-week line since January last year, although there have been two times, but have failed to break through the 60-week line, which shows that the opportunity is only **in the process**, not **reversal.
Regarding the relationship between the deviation rate and the trend of the index, when the deviation rate is too large, the market usually recovers with strength or weakness. The Strong Repair Index** quickly returned to around the 60-week line, while the Weak Repair balanced the market costs through a sideways approach, moving the 60-week line downward. At present, the ChiNext index is 1926 points, while the 60-week line on the weekly chart is 2260 points, and the deviation rate is 336 points, although it is not particularly large, but it is more significant. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GEM will repair the deviation rate. In addition, the weekly line of the GEM index is too divergent, lack of concentrated trend, usually in the weekly divergence and the index and the 60-week line deviation rate is too large, there will be *** Therefore, it is expected that the GEM will have a high probability of launching a wave close to the 60-week line next Monday and this month. The ChiNext is a driving index of market sentiment, and the reason why this article focuses on the trend of ChiNext is that the trend of the Shenzhen Component Index is similar to that of ChiNext, and there is little technical difference between the two.
Compared to ChiNext, the situation of the Shanghai Composite Index is more complex. From a weekly perspective, the Shanghai Composite Index has been trading sideways in a super-cycle since March 2016. This is also different from the ChiNext and one of the reasons why the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively resilient. The GEM is showing a clear trend**, because it has experienced a wave of bull market ** from 2018 to August 2021, so it is normal in recent years. In summary, next Monday, although it may be, the situation will still be more complicated, it's just ***.
Next Monday's trend will be more complicated. At present, the ChiNext index is in a bearish trend, with a deviation rate and below the 60-week line, but its divergent weekly chart and excessive deviation rate may lead to a sideways trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, which is significantly different from the trend of the ChiNext board. Therefore, next Monday's projection is only *** and cannot be considered a reversal. For investors, they should be cautious about the complexity of ** and make investment decisions rationally.