The new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been going on for more than two months, and its spillover effects are becoming more and more apparent. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently said that several countries have agreed to conduct joint patrols in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to protect transit merchant ships from attacks. While the U.S. fleet has stepped up patrols in the vicinity, the Houthis in Yemen have further stepped up their attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. Four international shipping giants, including Denmark's Maersk Line, Switzerland's Mediterranean Shipping Company, Germany's Hapag-Lloyd AG and France's CMA CGM Group, were forced to announce the suspension of sailing in the region. Previously, Israel's Israeli shipping companies such as ZAT also announced a detour from the Cape of Good Hope, but this will lead to an exponential increase in shipping costs and time.
The British "Economist" commented that the Suez Canal, as the artery of global shipping, is at risk of shutting down, disrupting the global ** chain, and the new Suez crisis is threatening the global economy, turning local conflicts into global events that may affect the world economy. Although the shipping value of this place cannot be ignored, the West ** is obviously deliberately exaggerating the impact.
It is worth noting that Yemen's Houthi rebels have made it clear that the targets of the attacks are Israeli merchant ships or merchant ships heading to Israeli ports, on the condition that Israel stops the attacks and allows food, medicine and other supplies to go to Gaza. The target was very precise and not indiscriminate. The West should go deeper into why the Houthis chose to block the shipping lanes and address this blockade at its roots.
Some may question how this affects the United States and EuropeDoesn't it have an impact on China?Even if shipping between China and Europe is completely disrupted, European inflation may be the first to suffer. As for its impact on China's exports, it needs to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. At present, China's exports are irreplaceable in the world. The United States and the West demand more Chinese manufacturing to stabilize inflation, and these costs will eventually be passed on to European consumers. It is worth noting that although the Houthis have accurately attacked merchant ships heading for Israel, the number of Chinese and Israeli leaders is not large, so our normal relations with Europe are basically not greatly affected.
However, although shipping costs and insurance premiums may have a certain impact on the profits of specific companies in the short term, they may be a good thing in the long run. First of all, it helps to change the pattern of the international shipping industry, which is good news for Chinese shipping companies. The international shipping industry has long been monopolized by Western shipping giants, and shipping insurance has also been dominated by the West. However, this time, China's shipping stocks collectively opened higher, and the two of the container shipping European lines even rose to the limit, showing the visual growth of overseas transshipment business. Secondly, the reduction in sea freight may prompt more goods to choose land transportation, which will have a positive impact on the China-Europe freight train. Third, it helps to weaken Europe's geopolitical influence. Europe has become a victim of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its economy has suffered a severe shock. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has also made Europe the hardest hit area, and the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea shipping lanes has seriously affected Europe** and exacerbated the inflation problem in Europe. Fourth, it helps to weaken US hegemony in the Middle East. Houthi's actions show that sea supremacy is no longer firmly in the hands of the United States, and that American maritime hegemony is coming to an end. Under maximum pressure, the Israeli economy will continue to collapse, forcing the United States to be forced to "transfuse more blood." Finally, it also provides an opportunity for China to attract American firepower. If the United States fails to stabilize the situation in the Middle East, Israel's living conditions will be greatly tested, and US actions in the Asia-Pacific region will also be delayed, providing more opportunities for China's layout.
However, we still need to be vigilant. Although the Houthis are not directly targeting Chinese ships, someone could take the opportunity to attack Chinese ships and draw China into the mix. Therefore, we need to do a good job of monitoring, early warning and planning to ensure that our country can remain safe in this complex geopolitical situation.