In the eyes of some people in the Pentagon, the outbreak of a large-scale conflict in the Taiwan Strait seems to be imminent, and they call for "the US military to be prepared for war." In addition to factors such as first-class equipment that the outside world is more concerned about, the US "Defense News" published a long analysis saying that if the US military wants to intervene in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it needs to overcome four major challenges brought about by logistics.
It must be admitted that the degree to which the US military attaches importance to logistics is worth learning from all countries Xi) The first thing in the list is "distance". According to the report, the continental U.S. is twice as far away from bases in the Indo-Pacific region as it is from bases in Europe. This meant a huge extension of the U.S. military's supply lines, forcing most U.S. military units to be assigned to support functions rather than combat roles. In contrast, China is closer to the theater of operations, simplifying logistics and allowing it to quickly concentrate its combat strength. "This asymmetry is good for Beijing and not good for US deterrence."
The second is the vast Pacific Ocean. It means that U.S. warplanes and sea boats must get close enough to put targets within range, and it severely limits the available base options. For example, U.S. tactical aircraft lack enough fuel to complete missions from most U.S. military bases in the Indo-Pacific region to and from the Taiwan Strait. While the U.S. military can expand the combat range of tactical aircraft with aerial refueling, tankers are attractive targets for Chinese missiles.
Don't forget, just two days ago, China unveiled the Thunderbolt-17 air-to-air missile, which has an ultra-long range and is specifically aimed at tankers and AWACS.
In this situation, the US Air Force finds itself at risk of not being able to dispatch enough warplanes to prevent a PLA victory, the report said. By repelling tankers, the PLA can achieve "area denial" in the air and possibly even master air superiority without having to defeat the US military's air superiority fighters head-on in battle. "Achieving air superiority is essential for the PLA's doctrine of victory, especially in the Taiwan Strait region. Geographical constraints in the oceans, as well as the Chinese missile threat, have significantly weakened the deterrent power of the United States".
The third is that "successful deterrence depends on the ability to quickly deliver massive combat power to the region." If the arrival of US troops in the theater of operations comes too late, then they are meaningless. U.S. warplanes can fly over the Pacific Ocean from the West Coast in a matter of hours, but tanker support is needed along the way, adding 24 to 48 hours to preparation, the report said.
Based on previous experience, it will take months to deploy a large number of US troops and ** to the theater of operations. Prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, U.S. forces had a sustained presence in the Middle East without enemy interference, but the Pentagon still had six months to assemble the personnel and supplies needed to support initial combat operations. Moreover, at that time, it was the United States that had the initiative and could start military operations against Iraq at a time and place of its choosing. "And in the Indo-Pacific, China is likely to have that advantage."
Fourth, in the event of a conflict with China, the scale and complexity of the supplies that the United States would need to prepare would be staggering. For example, with limited ramp space, U.S. military planners must use aircraft from more operating bases, which will increase the need for in-flight refueling and ground support, such as maintenance and service, support facilities, and storage sites. Planning and executing a large-scale logistics business is not an easy task. Despite months of careful planning, the U.S. military's "Mobile Guardian 23" Xi, held in July this year with allies, ran into trouble. For example, a C-17 transport plane flew only to Hawaii due to mechanical problems, while other aircraft fell behind schedule at different points in time, and these events are not a nuisance to deal with alone, but they can quickly have a knock-on effect when combined with each other.
A swarm of US military aircraft showing elephant walks at the base in Okinawa) Defense News stressed that unfortunately, logistical problems are difficult to solve easily, they are interrelated, and solving one of them often makes the others worse and complicates the situation. For example, the United States could deploy more troops in front of the line to try to solve the problem of distance and time constraints. However, without additional base options, these forces will end up concentrating on large bases, which can easily become a priority target for enemy forces, as is the case with the current U.S. military base group in Okinawa.
To mitigate this threat, the United States could try to deploy forces more widely within the first island chain, but dispersed forces would exacerbate the challenges of fighting across large areas of water and increase the complexity and scale of logistical support.
In other words, even Defense News believes that the new concepts of "distributed maritime operations" and "expeditionary forward base operations" that the US Navy, Marine Corps, and US Army are currently vigorously promoting against China may be logistically unbearable in the first place.
Despite identifying the four major challenges, the report was unable to come up with a solution. According to the report, to solve the logistical problem of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States needs new thinking. But "there is no silver bullet that will make the logistics and support of U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific easier, faster, more efficient and effective."