This week, the Shanghai Composite Index **094%, SZSE Component Index**175%, GEM refers to **123%。How will A-shares run next week?
CITIC Strategy: The inflection point is approaching
This week's survey sample of the public offering ** net redemption rate has dropped significantly, statistics show that in the past four years, the average return of public offering heavy stocks in the last five trading days of each year has been positive;The real estate policy is in the observation period, and it is expected that it will continue to increase in the future, and the market's expectations for the economy have a large room for upward revision compared with the policy target, and the inflection point of the market and confidence is approaching, and mid-January 2024 is a critical time point.
On the one hand, since August this year, the northbound capital outflow has come to an end, since this week, according to the CITIC ** channel survey data, the net redemption rate of the sample public ** products has dropped significantly, statistics show that the top 100 public offering ** heavy stocks in the past 4 years in the last 5 trading days of each year The average return is positive, and the market clearance is nearing the end.
On the other hand, the real estate policy is in the observation period after the landing, and it is expected that the follow-up policy will continue to increase, and the probability of LPR reduction in January next year is high, and the market's expectations for economic growth are still relatively large in terms of policy objectives.
CICC Strategy: The current extreme valuation of A-shares ** may come at any time
The internal and external environment is showing positive changes: 1. A number of domestic banks have recently announced that they will cut the listed interest rates on deposits, and policy easing will help stabilize growthThe National Press and Publication Administration made a quick response over the weekend to the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games" (draft for comments), which attracted market attention on Friday, which helped to stabilize expectations. In the current environment, the "consistency of macro policy orientation" has been enhanced, which is conducive to "strengthening policy co-ordination to ensure that efforts are made in the same direction and a joint force is formed".
2. Overseas, the long-end U.S. Treasury interest rate fell rapidly from a high of 5% to 3 against the backdrop of continued low U.S. inflation dataAround 9%, the dollar index weakened and the renminbi strengthened, while Chinese equity assets temporarily underreacted to this. From the perspective of the market outlook, the accumulation of extreme valuations and positive factors should respond to the negative feedback of the capital side, and A-shares** may come at any time, and the medium-term opportunities in the market outweigh the risks, and continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in the internal and external environment.
Haitong strategy: next year's index amplitude is expected to amplify the financial weighted sector or break through
Looking back over the past year, the market has weakened again in 2023 after a weaker 2022**. In fact, the formation process of the market bottom in this round is indeed more complicated. Referring to historical experience, the general policy bottom first appeared at the end of the adjustment of the a** field, and then with the active policy to promote the economy and the fundamentals to stabilize and rebound, marking the arrival of the bottom of the performance, in this process there are two forces wrestling with the favorable policy and the downward fundamentals, so there is a market bottom between the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the performance.
Looking forward to 2024, some investors believe that it is still difficult for the fundamentals to achieve a rapid recovery in the context of no obvious increase in policy, and the corresponding market may still be weak*** similar to the first half of 2012, after the policy bottom appeared, the fundamentals did not reverse rapidly, and then the broad-based index point hit a new low at the end of 2012.
According to the current wind consensus forecast, the market expects the domestic real GDP to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in 20240%；At the micro profit level, according to the consensus expectation of Tonglian, the market expects the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to be 73%, that is, the market expects a more moderate performance recovery next year, so the expectation for 2024** is cautious.
Monarch strategy: the recovery in winter is expected to appear
The market depth correction and oversold, the short-term index is expected to fall from killing to **. Since December, A-shares have seen a relatively large adjustment, and the stable style has outperformed, which matches our view that "the direction is in the low-risk characteristics". Looking back, we think:
1) The deep adjustment of the index indicates that investors have recalibrated their policy expectations after important meetings, and the trend of subsequent economic data and the interaction of policies are extremely important to the market.
2) After the third round of deposit interest rate cuts landed this year, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts reopened, superimposed on the allocation needs of some institutions at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, but relatively speaking, small steps and easing are more conducive to bond-like assets and long-term assets, and non-economic related assets.
3) The valuation of the short-term index and the turnover of the two cities have fallen to a historical low, considering the depth adjustment of the market in the early stage, the probability of the short-term index continuing to fall is not high, and it is expected to enter a low level in a short time window**technical**. However, the expected upward revision still requires a new margin, and the index height is not high. From a longer-term perspective, the improvement of corporate earnings expectations and market risk appetite still requires further policy efforts and clarity of the new development model. Therefore, the medium-term response still needs to be "stable".
Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Set the conditions for another chance for A-shares to be prepared for changes
In our view, the possible conditions for 2024Q1 to be effective** include:
1."Incorporating non-economic policies into the assessment of the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation" needs to be implemented. Policies that affect the expectation of market-oriented development, capital activity, and deflationary tendencies should be corrected in a timely manner.
2.The implementation of domestic steady growth is an important potential driving force for the expected recovery in 2024Q1, which is embodied in the financial efforts to assist in the easing of credit and the high growth of social finance credit.
3.The layout of reform has been gradually unfolded, with special attention paid to financial reform, as well as the emphasis on reform and opening up and market-oriented. The structure continues to revolve around the opportunity to have another opportunity.
2024Q1 policy implementation effect verification, optimistic about pro-cyclical + core assets**. Throughout 2024, we will continue to recommend new trend directions:1It is an inevitable trend for new industry trends to emerge (there are still many highlights of Huawei's chain innovation in 2024).2.Thinking about the direction of the boom from the new paradigm of China's economy (export chain, new multinational corporations, new consumption);3.Emphasizing corporate governance and shareholder returns is becoming a trend of thought, and the valuation of special valuations in a broad sense can be expected.
GF Strategy: How to lay out the bottom after the market adjustment?
The current market odds are more favorable, and it is more important to "look for opportunities at the bottom" in this position. Learn from the experience of the historical four-wheel market bottom to find the direction of attack. 2008 2012 2018 The dominant varieties after the market bottomed out in 2022: (1) From the perspective of industry style: if it is the bottom of strong policy stimulus (2008 2022), value stocks continue to dominate;In the case of the bottom of the policy (2012-2018) where the policy is prudent and the policy has no significant pricing power over the market, the deduction is divided into three phases: value stocks are dominant in the short term, but ** only at the monthly level, after which they will grow tangentially, and then depending on the industry trend and the incremental funding environment. In this round, the probability of strong policy stimulus is low, and the market interpretation is more likely to fall under the scenario of 2012 and 2018. In this case, the strategic allocation value of growth stocks is higher, and it is also an important direction of the industrial trend in 2024 (intelligent going overseas). Continue to be optimistic about growth and recovery assets: consumer electronics chain, innovative drugs, robots, auto parts, etc.
2) From the perspective of factors: the dominant factors after the market bottom are "small cap", "low valuation" and "reversal", that is, companies with small market capitalization, low PB quantiles, and large declines in the early stage.
Huaxi Strategy: How to deduce the main line at the end?
Market outlook: A-shares are waiting for an upward breakthrough in the "grinding bottom". Judging from the turnover of the two A-share markets, the valuation of major indices and the risk premium, the current A-share market is in the medium and long-term bottom range, investors tend to price the medium- and long-term problems in the short term, and the market risk appetite needs to be repaired.
Focus on three aspects of policy guidance: first, the third round of deposit rate cuts this year may open up room for policy rate cuts early next year;Second, pay attention to the effect of real estate policy relaxation in first-tier cities. Before the fundamentals of the real estate market stabilize, the easing policies on the demand side are still expected to continue to be introducedThird, in addition to fiscal, monetary, real estate and other policies, it is also necessary to pay attention to the implementation of non-economic policies. In terms of industry allocation, the acceleration of plate rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature, and the large-cap style may have a short-term equilibrium due to the relative valuation comparison. In terms of allocation, the low-valuation dividend sector with abundant cash flow is used as the ballast stone, and the areas that benefit from industrial catalysis and policy expectations are the medium-term main line.
Guosheng strategy: do not be surprised by changes and moderately increase reverse trading
Looking ahead, after a period of relying on the denominator end to slow the drive, whether the numerator end is expected to follow up has become the focus. At least so far, the numerator is expected to be constrained by the sluggish data, and if the follow-up macro policy implementation can boost growth expectations, the ** index can recover substantially;If the fundamental expectation & actual recovery is slow, and the large and small caps have once again entered a large differentiation range, it is also necessary to pay attention to the phased high and low convergence, and it is recommended to moderately increase the intensity of reverse trading in the New Year's Eve stage. In the longer term, the opening of the upside space of A-shares requires the market to form a joint force at the numerator and denominator ends. Until then, market opportunities are still mainly structural, and the index needs to be phased in.
Industry configuration suggestions: do not be surprised by changes, and moderately increase the intensity of reverse trading: 1. The supply and demand clues of the inventory cycle point to: industrial metals, chemical fibers, and consumer electronics;2. The direction of both odds and policy expectation game: building materials, insurance;3. Alpha of the excavation export chain: textiles, components, auto parts;4. Continue to take the "ballast stone" of dividends in the medium term.
Guosen Strategy: Policy impulse and earnings repair in 2024 are expected to consolidate the positive trend of A-shares
In 2024, policy impulse and earnings repair are expected to consolidate the positive trend of A-shares, and the demand side determines risk sentiment and space. From an internal point of view, the demand of the real sector is under pressure, which limits the degree of recovery of risk sentiment, and the previous **trend** benefits from the resonance of physical supply and demand, mostly demand-driven supply, and the slope of profit recovery is also closely linked to demand;There is a time lag for the confidence of the entity to pick up to the improvement of the sentiment, and the amplitude of the optimistic direction of the expectation may still be shown to be moderate and restrained, and the supply side is more concerned about structural opportunities.
From an external perspective, in 2023, overseas capital factors will have the strongest disturbance to A-shares, and in 2024, the relaxation of overseas liquidity will first raise valuations, and then pass on to the recovery of global fundamentals, which is good for small and medium-sized growth in the short term, and is expected to cut to blue-chip value in the long term.
Huaan Strategy: Confidence within the market still needs to be boosted, and there are signs of financial switching
In the third week of December, the market continued to adjust, although the Fed's interest rate cut expectations rose to promote a slight improvement in global risk appetite, but the domestic policy side and fundamentals lacked greater positive support, and the market still lacked the best momentum.
Looking ahead, the general trend of external risk mitigation remains unchanged, while the confidence of internal investors in the economy and policies still needs to be restored, the market momentum is weak, and there is no need to worry about significant adjustments in the absence of risk reversal overseas, so it is expected that the market will still maintain the first pattern.
*: Oriental Fortune.