Visual China.
According to the data released by SNE Research, a South Korean power battery research institution, from January to October this year, the number of electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles) registered in various countries around the world was about 5522GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, exceeding the whole of last year.
Among the top 10 enterprises in terms of installed capacity, 6 are from China, and the global market share of China's power batteries has reached 633%, an increase of 4 over the same period last year5 percentage points.
Screenshot of SNE Research data.
The market share of LG Energy Solutions, SK ON and Samsung SDI, the three Korean battery companies, is only 235%, down 1 percentage point from the same period last year.
In addition, Japan's Panasonic is the only non-Chinese and South Korean company with an installed capacity of 373GWh, ranking fourth in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 308%, with a market share of 68%, a decrease of 06 percentage points.
The market share of Chinese companies continues to be the best.
Specifically, China's CATL ended with 203The installed capacity of 8GWh continued to rank first in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 511%, with a market share of 369%, an increase of 17 percentage points.
According to the third quarter report for 2023 released by CATL a few days ago, the company's main revenue is 29467.7 billion yuan, an increase of 40 percent year-on-year1%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 3114.5 billion yuan, an increase of 77 percent year-on-year05%；Deduct non-net profit of 2698.1 billion yuan, an increase of 68 percent year-on-year23%。Among them, in the third quarter of 2023, the company's main revenue was 10543.1 billion yuan, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year28%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1042.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10 percent year-on-year66%；Deduct non-net profit of 942.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4 percent year-on-year91%。
Whether in the first three quarters or the third quarter, CATL's revenue and net profit achieved positive growth.
SNE Research said that CATL's continued growth was due to the expansion of overseas markets, especially the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and in the first 10 months of this year, CATL's all markets except China increased nearly 2 times year-on-year.
At present, CATL's batteries are not only used in the main electric models in the Chinese market such as GAC Aion Y and ZEEKR 001, but also on global models such as Tesla Model 3 Y, BMW IX, and Mercedes-Benz EQS.
BYD with 87The installed capacity of 5GWh continued to rank second in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 665%, with a market share of 158%, an increase of 21 percentage point.
BYD's third quarter report for 2023 released a few days ago shows that it achieved revenue of 1621 in the third quarter of this year5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3849%, net profit attributable to the parent company 1041.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8216%；In the first three quarters of this year, BYD achieved an operating income of 42227.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5775%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2136.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12947%, becoming the leading car company in net profit in the first three quarters.
Specific to the field of power batteries, BYD has established battery production bases in Shenzhen, Huizhou, Qinghai, Changsha and other places, with an existing production capacity of 263GWh, and plans to reach 625GWh in 2025. In addition to ensuring 100% self-supply, it also provides power batteries for Dongfeng Motor, FAW Hongqi, Toyota, Tesla and other car companies.
SNE Research said that in the past, BYD achieved extremely high sales in the Chinese market by virtue of the best advantages of battery self-sufficiency. As BYD expands its vehicle exports, sales of models such as the Atto 3 and the Dolphin are also increasing outside of China, and its global market share is rapidly expanding.
In addition to CATL and BYD, the top 10 Chinese companies in terms of installed capacity include China Innovation Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, EVE and Sunwoda.
The top three Korean battery manufacturers also saw an increase in installed capacity compared to the same period last year, but their global share was only 235%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the same period last year.
Specifically, LG Energy Solutions ranked at 76The installed capacity of 1GWh ranked third in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 472%, with a market share of 138%, an increase of 03 percentage points. The Company manufactures and sells the Tesla Model 3 Y and Volkswagen ID. in North America and EuropeSeries, Ford Electric Horse and other models are available.
SK ON with 27The installed capacity of 9GWh ranked fifth in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 138%, with a market share of 51%, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year3 percentage points. The company mainly supplies the Hyundai IONIQ5, Kia EV6, Mercedes-Benz EQA B, and Ford F-150 Lightning, and expects to expand its market share mainly in North America.
Samsung SDI at 25The installed capacity of 1GWh ranked seventh in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 421%, with a market share of 46%, unchanged from the same period last year. The company mainly supplies luxury brands such as the BMW i4 i7 and Audi Q8 e-tron, as well as models such as the Rivian R1T R1S EDV and Fiat 500.
The capacity utilization rate is reduced to 41%, and going overseas is the best solution
However, with the substantial increase in the production capacity of new energy vehicles, the problem of overcapacity of power batteries has gradually emerged.
According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the capacity utilization rate of China's power battery in 2022 will be 516%, with the possibility of falling to 41% in 2023. According to the data released by the alliance, China's power battery production capacity will reach 545 in 20229GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1485%。Despite the significant increase in battery installed capacity, the year-on-year increase was 907%, but 294The installed capacity of 6GWh is far below the production capacity. Obviously, the power battery is showing a "oversupply" momentum.
Zhu Huarong, chairman and secretary of the Party Committee of Changan Automobile, said at the 2023 China Automobile Chongqing Forum that it is expected that by 2025, the power battery production capacity of China's demand will be about 1,000GWh, and the current production capacity of the industry has reached 4,800GWh, and there is a serious overcapacity.
According to 1GWh is equivalent to 1 million kWh, if calculated according to the storage capacity of a car of 50 kWh, the corresponding loading capacity of 1GWh power battery is about 20,000 units, so the corresponding loading capacity of 4800GWh power battery is 96 million. However, according to the IEA (International Energy Agency)**, global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1,142 in 2025950,000 units, which is expected to increase to 2,242 in 2030510,000 units.
In the eyes of industry insiders, the slowdown in the growth rate of raw materials and demand is an important factor in the overcapacity of power batteries. Especially in the face of the tension and continuous price increase of upstream materials in recent years, battery companies have accelerated the pace of capacity expansion, and the overcapacity of the first end has finally appeared.
Therefore, the optimization and integration of power battery production capacity will set off a new round of competition. Some second- and third-tier battery companies that have no profitability will face accelerated elimination.
According to the statistics of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the capacity utilization rate of China's power battery in 2022 will be 516%, with the possibility of falling to 41% in 2023. Considering that the growth rate of energy storage batteries and export batteries is greater than that of new energy vehicles, the power battery production capacity can be digested relatively quickly.
Similar to car companies, some power battery companies have set their sights on overseas markets, trying to expand a blue ocean and find new performance growth points for enterprises.
As of the first half of this year, the number of overseas factories built by domestic battery companies has exceeded 20, and the cumulative production capacity planning has exceeded 500,500GWh. Battery manufacturers including CATL, Honeycomb Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, China Innovation Airlines, EVE Lithium Energy, and Sunwoda have disclosed their overseas layout plans.
In the face of fierce competition in the domestic power battery market, Li Jin, chairman of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, once told ** that the global market can be divided into four plates: China, America, Europe and Africa, Southeast Asia and South Asia, China's current new energy vehicle sales account for more than 60% of global sales, and the future will also fall sharply with the process of global vehicle electrification, "If we only develop in China, it means that we have lost the other three markets, and if we want to make a difference, the other three markets can not be lost." ”。
It is worth noting that battery companies are also facing many problems in building factories overseas, in addition to the head enterprises, the asset investment, technical route and choice of cooperative car companies will affect the stable development of enterprises.
Therefore, at present, how to give full play to technical advantages, improve high-end battery production capacity, and optimize the production structure may be the key to the healthy development of power battery companies in the industry.