Where there is a bull market, there will be a bear market. Where there is a bear market, there will be a bull market. Now that the bear market is over, there will definitely be a bull market ahead. The economy has cycles, and there are cycles. Long and short, bull and bear are essentially two sides of the coin. The central bank has withdrawn funds in a big way!The three major bearishness in the early hours of this morning officially fermented (125）！
As long as the Shanghai Composite Index closes at 3150 points this month, it will be a victory, and the difficulty should not be great. If it stays above the 5Q line, it is almost certain that next year will be a bull market. You can look at the past trend and see that the bear market is suppressed by the Q5 and Q10 lines.
1. This week, the total amount of reverse repurchase due in the open market of the central bank was 213.6 billion yuan. Among them, 501 billion yuan, 415 billion yuan, 438 billion yuan, 663 billion yuan, and 119 billion yuan are due from Monday to Friday, respectively, and the deadlines are all 7 days.
This week, the central bank's open market reverse repo maturity scale is large, except for Friday, which is relatively small, and the scale of maturity funds on other days is large. At the same time, the net withdrawal of funds due yesterday exceeded 400 billion yuan. As can be seen from these circumstances, the central bank has not carried out easing coverage operations. For a situation where there is still a lot of expiring liquidity in the coming days, this situation can create considerable psychological pressure on short-term market information.
It is important to note that the foregoing is a short-term liquidity situation, while long-term interest rates remain high in the market. This situation will have different impacts on short-term and long-term investment strategies and need to be treated differently.
In addition, this situation will also have an impact on the concept plates related to Action A, and the specific extent and direction of the impact of different concept plates need to be further observed and analyzed.
Overall, the central bank's open market reverse repo period this week is large, and the central bank has not carried out loose coverage, which may have psychological pressure on market liquidity in the next few days. However, it is worth noting that this mainly affects short-term liquidity, and medium- to long-term market interest rates remain high. In addition, it will also have a certain impact on the A-share related concept sector.
2. The varieties of supplementary increases continue. Recently, **due to *** expectations and continued performance, especially ** concept. This is the hype of the cyclical expectation of ***, and China Shipbuilding Industry was also the recovery of the global shipbuilding industry last week, and the world's number one news of China Shipbuilding Industry Technology belongs to the recovery hype, then there are cyclical varieties of food agriculture, pork, etc.!The overall market is still relatively stable, and both runway varieties and recovery varieties have certain performance, but here is another reminder that no matter what trend you are in, this is not a reason for you to chase up, but continue to seize the opportunity to fight back and optimize your account management**.
3. Where will the focus of speculation go next?Looking back, what directions didn't go up?12. If you want to counterattack, you must have the main force to protect the disk, so the Chinese side and large financial institutions here are still expected to offset the increase;In terms of thematic stocks, we focus on sub-IPOs that are over-falling and have greater turnaround potential. This direction is worth exploring. For now, the rest is mostly wait-and-see. Wait for a round of real differentiation adjustment to appear, or even find the bottom again**, and the central direction is naturally the runway.
Taking a step back, even if it can't be closed, is a victory. From the perspective of the annual line, if the annual line is negative this year, then the annual line will be negative for two consecutive years, and A-shares have never had 3 consecutive negative lines for many years, so there is no doubt that it will be ** next year.
The daily ** trend and the 60f trend can refer to the previous article, and will not be repeated here. Yesterday's analysis focused only on the smaller 15f. The current ** trend is guided by 15f, and the uptrend of the daily band of this cycle will begin. Yesterday's decline was clearly suppressed by the **15f120 line. In the morning index**, the STAR 50 was still in the red. The authors clearly point out that the strong trend of the STAR 50 and the Shanghai Composite Index is temporary, and will be ** later, but not by much.
Now it can be seen that the Science and Technology Innovation Index 50 and the Shanghai Composite Index were mixed, maintaining a green trend until noon**, following the rhythm. The 5F market formed a double top on Friday, and *** on Monday was inevitable, but the real trend is more complicated. I also said on the weekend evening that **at the 15f120 line met resistance and**, on Monday there was a **build-up process,** retracement to the lower platform. Now we can see through the analysis that ** has indeed returned to the 15f platform.