Zhongxin Jingwei, December 21 (Wang Yongle) A-shares have weakened for several days, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2882 in early trading on the 21stAt 02 points, it fell below the 2,900 integer mark again after nearly 14 months, and hit a new low since the end of April 2022.
As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index turned red to regain the 2,900-point mark at 2,90649 points.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2900 points intraday, what factors affected it?How will the market outlook be interpreted?
Overseas shocks superimposed panic selling.
For the Shanghai Composite Index intraday loss of 2,900 points, Qu Yiping, head of the total group and chief analyst of Oriental Wealth, said that overnight, U.S. stocks generally fell, and Chinese concept stocks also appeared. The Federal Reserve made remarks that interest rate cuts are important but will not start immediately, and inflation has not completely subsided, which has weighed on overseas interest rate cut expectations.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, said that the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points in early trading, which was affected by a variety of factors. First, after the market fell below the 3,000-point integer mark, the bulls' confidence was hit, and the bottom trend accelerated. Second, there is a certain outflow of northbound funds, which has hit the confidence of some investors, and investors have panic selling, resulting in short-term **.
Has it bottomed out?Qu Yiping said, "The short-term trend of the market is unpredictable. But now the market has a number of bottom characteristics. Yang Delong analyzed that the so-called land volume sees the land price, and the turnover of the two cities continues to shrink, which makes the market have some characteristics of bottoming out. Another bottoming feature is that investors' willingness to enter the market is sluggish, and it is difficult to issue new **.
Yang Delong also pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index quickly regained 2,900 points in early trading, and some white horse stocks represented by consumption appeared sharply. This also verifies what Warren Buffett said, "You don't have to wait until the bottom to lay out, because many good companies will bottom out in advance." ”
Founder** research report also said that **has been broken, and the specific lowest point is unknown, but regardless of fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals, it can be determined that **low point is nearby. Every time the operation is broken, it will form a gravitational force on the over-the-counter medium and long-term investment funds, which will also restrict the first space, but will open up the upward space.
In addition, Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda, said that although the market seems to be pessimistic and desperate when it falls below 2,900 points, positive signals have emerged.
2024 is worth looking forward to.
Talking about the trend and investment opportunities of A-shares in 2024, Qu Yiping believes that the overall valuation of A-shares next year is expected to complete the final de-bubble to form a solid bottom, and the core relies on the strengthening of fiscal expenditure expansion, the reduction of the burden on tax links, and the continued reasonable reduction of domestic interest rates. At the same time, in the context of the upcoming update and iteration of GPT4 combined with multi-modal large models, the AIGC wave will continue to drive more investment opportunities in hardware, algorithms and application layers in the TMT track.
Yang Delong said that the A** field is expected to launch a round of bailouts. On the one hand, the policy will continue to increase, and it may continue to amplify the moves. On the other hand, the renminbi is likely to see a strong rally as the Fed enters its rate-cutting cycle. The A** field is also expected to have an advantageous trend, the money-making effect is significantly improved, and investors are expected to win back a game.
Yang Delong suggested that big consumption, new energy and technology may generate more investment opportunities.
Chen Guo, managing director and chief strategy officer of China Securities Construction Investment**, believes that the A** market in 2024 will be significantly better than in 2023, mainly due to two factors. In terms of profitability, the first economic work conference proposed to "seek progress in stability and promote stability with progress", including the actual situation of corporate earnings will be significantly improved on the basis of this year, and the earnings of all A-share enterprises are expected to show significant positive growth. On the valuation side, the current global risk-free interest rate is down, and at the same time, the first economic work conference also proposed to prevent risks, especially the risks of real estate, local debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions, and emphasized "actively and prudently resolving real estate risks", so under a series of powerful measures, the market's concerns about China's risks will be significantly alleviated, and the valuation will also be increased.
In terms of investment direction, Chen Guo pointed out that the first direction should focus on the cycle of the technology industry. The second direction can focus on cyclical assets.
Zhang Jingjing, chief macro analyst of China Merchants, said that due to the rebound in nominal growth, there is a high probability that the center of the index will move significantly higher than this year.
Zhang Jingjing said that from a structural point of view, the logic of improving the competitiveness of domestic enterprises going to sea in the past two years is still more effective for the market, such as this year's automobile industry chain, although the export growth rate is not particularly strong in the near future, but the share of domestic exports has indeed rebounded significantly compared with the previous few months in September, indicating that enterprises have significantly improved their competitiveness in going to sea. In addition, upstream resources are also worth paying attention to, because the current supply shock is still relatively easy to occur, and in the past two years, we are not only doing industrial upgrading, but also making breakthroughs in science and technology, so this is also the direction that investors need to pay attention to. (Zhongxin Jingwei app).
The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. )
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