Changsha Evening News, Changsha, December 10 (Reporter Zhou Congxiao) This week, the market still maintains the first adjustment pattern, except for the Beijing Stock Exchange 50, which rose more than 8%, most of the other indices show varying degrees, among which the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 and CSI 1000 all fell by more than 2%, and the Shanghai Index fell below the 3000 point mark again. Unlike last week, this week's tickets have entered the adjustment range.
* Performance: Wang Zhenhuai, chief investment adviser of Yangtze River ** Hunan Branch, said that looking back on this week**, Monday, **all-day** adjustment, market hotspots continued to rotate rapidly;On Tuesday, ** opened low and went low throughout the day, the three major indexes all fell more than 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points, and even the board stocks were more and more tightly groupedOn Wednesday, the market ushered in a certain repair, but the amount of energy did not increase, the intraday market hot spots showed rapid rotation, still did not form a clear leading main line, many high-level stocks staged a "sky floor" in the afternoon;In the last two trading days of this week, the AI industry chain broke out across the board, and the direction of Thursday's rise was dominated by the downstream application side represented by AIGC, while the core of capital speculation on Friday switched to the direction of hardware computing power represented by CPO, and a benign rotation was formed within the AI industry chain, driving the three major indices to close up across the board.
On the whole, this week showed a trend of first declining and then rising, and the two cities showed certain signs of recovery. With the outbreak of the AI industry chain for two consecutive trading days and the resonance of the index, it is expected to become the main line of the lead in the future, and we can focus on the extension opportunities in AI and its industry chain next week.
In terms of the industry, a small number of sectors this week, among them, software and services, and retail sectors rose first, while automobiles and auto parts, which performed well in the early stage, entered the adjustment stage and fell first. From the perspective of northbound funds, the net outflow this week was 578.7 billion yuan, of which 14 were outflows on Monday and Tuesday4.1 billion and 75$2.1 billion. In terms of volume, this week's volume can show a state of first decline and then rise, the first four trading days remained around 800 billion yuan, and the full outbreak of the AI concept on Friday drove the volume to further rise to above 960 billion yuan.
Interpretation of key industries:
Recently, the AI industry has exploded in full swing, with the CPO sector leading the two cities. On the news side, on December 7, AMD officially launched the AI GPU accelerator Instinct Mi300X and the world's first data center acceleration processor AU Instinct Mi300A at the "Advancing AI" event, providing a supplement to the computing power market.
From a fundamental point of view, with the rapid development of AI, popular applications such as PIKA are expected to continue to emerge, the iteration cycle of large models will continue to accelerate, computing resources will still be scarce, and the demand for computing power will remain strong. The next-generation GPUs represented by GH200 and B100 have greatly increased the demand for network bandwidthThe accelerated development of 6T optical modules will shorten the upgrade cycle and further enhance the market space of high-speed optical modules.
From the perspective of the market, AI is showing a benign rotation trend. The direction of Thursday's rise is dominated by the downstream application side represented by AIGC, while the core of Friday's capital speculation has switched to the direction of hardware computing power represented by CPO, and has formed a certain resonance with the index, and is expected to become the main line of the market in the new cycle.
However, it should be noted that the overall loss effect of the current market has not yet been fully released, and AI may face a certain degree of differentiation after the volume of the two consecutive trading days.
Market outlook: Wang Zhenhuai said that this week, the two cities continued to adjust, and the volume can be effectively amplified to around 960 billion yuan, it is worth noting that in the last two trading days, the AI industry chain broke out in an all-round way, from the downstream application end to the upstream hardware computing power direction, and the industrial chain showed a benign round dynamic. In addition, next week Huawei will usher in two major conferences, namely the Huawei Innovation Product Conference on December 12 and the Huawei Euler Operating System Conference on December 15-16.
Specifically, from a macro point of view, in terms of domestic policy, a meeting of the Politburo was held on December 8, focusing on pointing out that next year, we should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, strengthening the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and continuing to implement a positive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In addition, about a week after the Politburo meeting, the economic work conference will be held, the economic work conference is a refinement of the content of the Politburo meeting, and the follow-up focus is mainly on three aspects, that is, the judgment of the current economic situation and the tone of next year's economic work, monetary policy and fiscal policy, real estate and other industrial policies, etc. At the same time, at the end of December, the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee will be held every five years, and the Third Plenary Session of the previous Central Committee has mainly focused on major issues affecting China's development, such as the economic system, market-oriented reform, and opening up to the outside world, and its importance is self-evident.
In terms of economic data, the import and export data for November was released, which was better than expected, and exports increased by 05%, the growth rate is significantly better than that in October9 percentage points;The PMI of Caixin services was 51 in November5, up 1 from the previous month1. Expected 505。Overseas, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected for four consecutive months, coupled with the rapid decline in U.S. bond interest rates, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has further increased, which shows that the stage of greatest external pressure has passed. As geopolitics enters the stage of normalization, the impact on A-shares is gradually decreasing.
Overall, the overseas unfavorable factors are gradually subsiding, and the Fed will usher in a cycle of interest rate cuts in the near futureThe domestic economy as a whole is showing a wave-like upward range, and the process is inevitably tortuous, but it is still in the upward channel of economic recovery as a whole. The follow-up can focus on the direction of the Politburo meeting in December, the ** Economic Work Conference and the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee on the policy side, which will determine the subsequent direction of national development and will also boost market confidence to a certain extent.
In terms of operation, Wang Zhenhuai suggested that investors can properly control the market and lay out the dip in batches. Focus on the following directions:1Supply clearance + marginal demand recovery of growth recovery varieties (consumer electronics chain, semiconductor design, innovative drugs, robots);2.China's advantageous manufacturing + the United States is expected to replenish the warehouse to boost external demand (textiles, chemical raw materials, electronic components);3.A new round of "pan-AI + Huawei" technology supply creates demand (intelligent driving, XR, radio frequency, and satellite communication).