Ukraine is already at its most critical moment since the outbreak of the war almost two years ago. Faced with less and less external assistance, the shortage of personnel in the Ukrainian army is becoming more and more serious. If the war continues in its current state, Ukraine will be in a dilemma where it will not be able to continue fighting. Ukraine** Zelensky had previously traveled to the United States to seek assistance, but after the setback, it seems that he has given up on continuing to seek support from the West, and can only wait for the West's decision. However, Zelensky still holds the initiative, and if he decides to continue fighting, he can continue to mobilize moreUkrainiansInto the fray. At present, although the Ukrainian side has not yet admitted it, it is planning to mobilize 500,000 soldiers, and it seems that once the troops are fully equipped, the West will not hesitate to provide themEquip. However, it is possible that everything will end before the West may "change its mind".
However, the morale of the Ukrainian army is very low. Ukrainian Major General Dmitry Marchenko said in an interview that the number of volunteers who volunteered to join the Ukrainian army has been exhausted, and it is difficult to determine when the mobilization of 500,000 people and the guarantee of quality will be achieved. Marchenko noted that the Ukrainian army is currently experiencing an extreme lack of artillery shells, and this is nothingMilitarySecret. As a general, Marchenko made a very pessimistic statement, believing that the Ukrainian army is preparing for the worst possible scenario in 2024. However, Marchenko did not specify what exactly the worst-case scenario would mean. Judging by the current domestic situation in Ukraine, the worst scenario is likely not to be XiangRussian armycapitulation, but plunged into civil war.
Oleg Soskin, a former adviser to Ukraine's former Kuchma, expressed concern about the possible outbreak of a civil war in Ukraine. He said that because of the forced conscription, there is a possibility of civil war in Ukraine, whenKievWhen the arrests of Ukrainians begin, internal resistance may arise spontaneously. KievThe authorities are also well aware of this risk, so Zelensky did not dare to explicitly announce the mobilization of another 500,000 people, and even tried to shift the blame to the military. At the same time, however, conscription operations are still going on in Ukraine, and the standards are stricter than ever, with senior officers issuing statements one after another, all aimed at getting moreUkrainiansTake part in the battle. In the event that the number of people who voluntarily join the Ukrainian army is exhausted, the only way to go is through compulsory conscription, but this is also the most risky option. It will not be possible to mobilize 500,000 people without coercion, and if coercion is used, a large number of Ukrainian men of school age may revolt.
Next year will be the year of the first year for Ukraine. Ukraine, which was supposed to hold ** elections at the beginning of the year, decided to cancel it for the time being, although Zelensky was thereLawsAt the level, it has been approved by the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine, but it is not yet known whether this decision will trigger action by the Ukrainian population and those who intend to replace it. If anything major happens, now is the most likely time. If Zelensky can get through this predicament, the next test will be the United States, however, it is not foreseeable whether the United States will become the most likely turning point in peace talks. As long as the Republican candidate in the United States wins, the United States will completely abandon aid to Ukraine, and no matter how many people Ukraine mobilizes, it will not be able to continue fighting. Considering the current situation in Ukraine, it seems possible to hold out to Ukraine, but whether it can hold out to the United States ** still requires a huge question mark.
Ukraine is facing the most difficult moment since the outbreak of the war almost two years ago. In the context of reduced external assistance, the Ukrainian army is facing a shortage of personnel and is demoralized. Ukraine** Zelensky tried his best to enlist the support of the West, but after the setback, it seems that he has given up on seeking further assistance and can only wait for the decision of the West. While Ukraine still plans to mobilize more personnel, it will be challenging to achieve this goal. Ukraine is currently at risk of civil war, as forced conscription could lead to popular revolt. Next year is the first year of Ukraine, and Zelensky will need to deal with domestic political and diplomatic challenges. If this dilemma can be overcome, the bigger test will come from the United States*** The possibility of Ukraine being able to hold out and achieve peace remains uncertain.
No matter how difficult and challenging Ukraine may be, we should think deeply about the root causes of the situation in Ukraine. At the same time, all stakeholders should intensify dialogue and seek solutions in order to achieve peace and stability in Ukraine. AsInternationalAs a member of society, we should also pay attention to and support Ukraine's efforts at this difficult time to contribute to peace and security.