The market is competing, and the grain market is also competing.
It's just that the competition is not about who can rise how high, butIn an environment of generally weakening demand, who is the first to land.
To say in corn, wheat, soybeans and rice,The bullish sentiment in wheat is the strongest, and the reason is simple:
First, after the wheat ** rushed to a high point in the first two years, it has been at 16 yuan Jin position hovering, thisIt has also laid a positive psychological construction for the marketThat is, the ** of wheat can also return to the high point.
Second, this year's wheat harvest encountered extreme weatherThis gives the market more weight for speculation, so this sentiment continues to amplify, and the bullish sentiment of wheat is also rising.
The third is the active cooperation of the market.
To say that this year's wheat market entities are also actively cooperating with this wave of the main body, the main body of grain is reluctant to sell at a high price, and the main body of grain collection continues to raise prices, so the wheat market has been set up.
But we have analyzed it before,On the surface, wheat is in full swing, but this is like a tall building in the air, with insufficient support underneath, and it will fall sooner or later.
So,At the end of the year, when it should have been the peak season that everyone was looking forward to, wheat fell off the altar and quickly fell below 1After 5 yuan catty, he is still constantly trying downward.
Although the current wheat has begun to show signs of ** again, but at this time the wheat card has gradually become clear.
First of all, the weather obscured the truth.
What the market did not expect was that this round of weather failed to stop the first corn rate, but it brought "hope" to wheat.
Of course, this "hope" is in quotation marks.
Cooling, heavy snow, strong winds, extreme weather warnings, the main wheat producing areas in many places have been affected, and the amount has begun to decrease.
Although the weather does not have a great impact on the growth of wheat, it isThe decrease in the amount also made the company's price reduction gradually converge, so the decline in wheat gradually stopped, and it has the meaning of stabilizing.
But the wheat market in extreme weather is just an illusion, because the weather changes will always pass, thatWhat is the truth about the wheat market?
The truth is that the demand is still very weak, and it can't be brought at all.
There is still half a month to go before 2023 ends, and wheat is eager to rise before, mainly based on New Year's Day and other consumption and stocking boosts, which can drive wheat**.
But now it seems,The first one to "disarm and surrender" this year was wheat.
Wheat demand is weak by any channel.
For example, livestock and poultry breeding is not prosperous, demand is declining, wheat is squeezed out of substitution, and even by-products are frequently weakened.
For another example, flour sales are mediocre, it is difficult to vibrate, small and medium-sized enterprises have significantly declined, and demand is sluggish.
As a result, in such a background of strong supply and weak demand, the decline of wheat is gradually revealed. Or rather,It is difficult to have a significant increase in follow-up consumption, and the best space for wheat is firmly limited.
So far, the pattern of wheat this year can be regarded as settledIt's hard to make any more splashes.
Although the corn is still falling sharply, it is precisely because of the sharp fall that there has been a slight change in the follow-up **, so the corn is still tossing;As for soybeans, when their lives were hanging by a thread, the national reserve opened and harvested again, and once again held the **.
Only wheat,As supply and demand become clearer, the weak pattern of the previous year has basically come to an end. At present, "disarming and surrendering" does not mean that wheat is going to fall sharply, but the hope for a rise is becoming more and more slim.
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