On December 2, Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a phone call, during which the two sides communicated on cooperation between the two countries and the Palestinian-Israeli situation. During the call, Blinken expressed to Sudani the expectation that Iraq would protect the safety of U.S. personnel in Iraq. Since mid-October, there have been frequent attacks on U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq, most of which have been carried out by Iraqi militia groups called Islamic Resistance Groups. Taking into account the imminent withdrawal of US troops and the illegal presence of US troops in Syria, the United States cannot defend itself against these attacks by deploying air defense systems. Therefore, the United States chose to turn to Iraq for help to protect the safety of American personnel in Iraq.
However, a short time later, the US military base was attacked again. Iraqi militia Islamist Resistance Group claimed to have launched a drone attack on a U.S. military base in the Kurdish autonomous region, which it said was a response to Israel's continued military operations in Gaza. The attack was the first attack on a U.S. military base since the ceasefire in Gaza. At the same time, Blinken had just spoken to the Iraqi prime minister and expressed hope that the US military in Iraq would be protected, while the US military base was attacked in Iraq. This is clearly a strong signal that the Iraqi militias are returning the favor to the United States. From the point of view of militia forces, they see the United States as a party to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and as the conflict escalates, the frequency of attacks on US military bases will further increase. As for whether Iraq** will be able to provide the "protection" that the United States needs, there are still many unknowns.
At the same time, there was an operation of the US military in Syria. On December 3, the Syrian newspaper "Fatherland" reported that the US military stationed in the Umar oil field in Deir ez-Zor province, Syria, suddenly carried out a surprise attack on seven villages under the control of Syria. First, they fired ** shells near the village, and then set up positions in the relevant area. According to the report, the situation in the relevant areas is tense, and the possibility of a conflict between the US military and the Syrian ** army at any time cannot be ruled out. Judging from the reports, it seems that the purpose of the US military raid on Syrian villages is to expand its position in the area, and in addition to expanding the territory, it is likely that they are also in response to a possible larger attack. The villages that were attacked this time are controlled by Syria, and Syria is obviously not going to sit idly by and watch the deployment of US troops in the vicinity. As tensions escalate between the two sides, the risk of conflict is rapidly increasing.
1.As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate, U.S. intervention will exacerbate tensions and lead to an increase in the frequency of attacks on U.S. military bases. As Biden's support for Israel has sparked international dissatisfaction and domestic support, it may adversely affect Biden's political future.
2.The frequent attacks on the US military, the White House seeking protection from Iraq on the one hand, and the expansion of its positions in Syria on the other, show that the United States will not give up easily. In addition, the United States has a huge military deployment in the Middle East, and it cannot be ruled out that it will use force to create greater turmoil in Syria, Iraq, and even the entire Middle East region.
3.The raid of the US military on a Syrian village has created a dilemma for Syria and Russia. Although Syria ** is unhappy with this, it is not necessarily possible to win in the confrontation with the United States;And although Russia will not sit idly by, it will also face difficulties in helping Syria against the United States while dealing with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At the moment, the US military operation in Syria is clearly hostile, and the situation is tense, and how to defuse the situation and prevent the situation in Syria from deteriorating further is a huge challenge for both Syria and Russia.
In short, U.S. intervention in the Middle East and frequent attacks on U.S. military bases will further exacerbate tensions in the region. Against this backdrop, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and we need to further observe and follow the developments.