The semiconductor industry is cold, and global companies are hoping that the Chinese market will survive the cold winter
In the past three years, the entire semiconductor industry has had a great impact due to the absence of central fluctuations, and in 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022, everyone has made a lot of money.
However, in the second half of 2022, due to the slowdown in economic growth and sluggish demand, the entire industrial chain had to cut orders or reduce prices**, and the performance declined seriously.
Overall, the current semiconductor cold snap has invaded the entire semiconductor industry, from IC factories, to wafer factories, to packaging and testing, materials, equipment, EDA and other manufacturers, all of which have been spared.
The first is the semiconductor equipment market, according to SEMI statistics, the global semiconductor equipment market sales will exceed the 100 billion US dollar mark in 2022, reaching 108.5 billion US dollars, but the market size will shrink to 91.2 billion US dollars by 2023.
This kind of semiconductor equipment, including logic chip equipment, as well as NAND, DRAM and other equipment, are all declining in the cold.
In addition, in terms of the wafer market, according to Trendforce statistics, the wafer foundry market began to decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the quarter-on-quarter growth of wafer foundry in the past two years has officially ended, and it is expected that the decline in the wafer foundry market in 2023 will be more than 10%-15%, or even higher.
The memory chip market, such as NAND and DRAM, the two main products, is also expected to decline by about 15-20% in 2023, at least until the end of 2023, and even until 2024 to see hope of recovery.
In addition to packaging and testing, semiconductor materials and more upstream EDA suppliers will also enter the cold winter gradually due to the supply and demand relationship in the downstream market.
Of course, as an important part of the global semiconductor industry, Chinese mainland is naturally not immune, but due to its huge volume and growth period, compared with other markets in the world, the semiconductor market in Chinese mainland in 2023 is different and has higher expectations.
According to SEMI's **, Chinese mainland will still maintain a good growth trend in 2023, especially in some consumer electronics chips, semiconductor equipment, etc., which may not decrease but increase.
Considering the size and development potential of the Chinese market, as long as the products or equipment favored by the Chinese market are likely to maintain good performance in such a cold winter as 2023.
In the words of the agency, the development of the semiconductor industry in Chinese mainland will play a key role in driving the global semiconductor consumer market, so everyone hopes that the Chinese market can be supported, so that the global semiconductor industry has hope and hope.
However, the agency also believes that due to the control of the United States, the advanced products of the world's top five semiconductor equipment manufacturers have been difficult to enter the Chinese mainland market, and China's domestic semiconductor equipment and materials are encroaching on the market cake belonging to the United States, Japan and South Korea semiconductor equipment manufacturers in previous years, and Chinese local enterprises have greater opportunities.
Next, let's see whether China's semiconductor market can withstand it in 2023, and then look at how much market domestic manufacturers can eat before this wave of dividends.