This article**: Times Finance Author: Yuchen
Diagram worm.
8.65 yuan, this ** is Oriental Shenghong (000301SZ) has reached a new low in 37 months, and the listed company, which is known as the "private chemical leader" in the market, has recently fallen sharply in the secondary market.
On December 20, Dongfang Shenghong's share price opened high and went low, and the lowest intraday price fell to 865 yuan, and finally **080% closed at 866 yuan, the company's market value fell to about 57.3 billion yuan, evaporating about 140 billion yuan from the highest market value on September 16, 2021.
Behind the share price of Oriental Shenghong, it is the pessimistic reaction of market investors to the dual pressure of the company's cost and product side, the volatility exceeding expectations and the changes in macroeconomic trends, which in turn led to a downward revision of performance, resulting in large-scale.
The agency lowered its performance for three years**.
According to the data, Oriental Shenghong is the core listed subsidiary of Shenghong Holding Group, hereinafter referred to as "Shenghong Holding Group".
Shenghong Holding Group was established in 1992 and is headquartered in Shengze, Suzhou. During this period, Shenghong Holding Group also invested in hotel and real estate business, and then expanded its business to spinning business in 2003, signed a contract with Lianyungang Xuwei New District in 2010 to enter the petrochemical sector, and officially put into production 1.5 million tons of PTA in 2011.
In August 2018, Oriental Shenghong, as the main body of Shenghong Holding Group's chemical fiber asset management, successfully landed in the domestic capital market, and realized the restructuring and listing of Oriental Market (formerly Silk Shares) on the Shenzhen ** Stock Exchange.
In 2019, Shenghong Holding Group successively injected Shenghong Refining & Chemical (Lianyungang) ** hereinafter referred to as "Shenghong Refining & Chemical") and Jiangsu Honggang Petrochemical *** (hereinafter referred to as "Honggang Petrochemical") into the listed company. Among them, Shenghong Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is the main body of the company's investment in the construction of a 16 million tons-a-year refining and chemical integration unit, while Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the production and sales of PTA.
Since then, in December 2021, Dongfang Shenghong has completed the merger and acquisition of Jiangsu Sierbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sierbang").
At present, Dongfang Shenghong has formed a vertically integrated chemical complex of the whole industrial chain, relying on the "big chemical" comprehensive chemical raw material platform built by refining and chemical integration, alcohol-based polygeneration and propane industry chain projects, and extending the "1+N" industrial layout to new energy, new materials, electronic chemistry, biotechnology and other diversified industrial chains.
However, Times Finance combed the financial report data in the past five years and found that the profitability of Dongfang Shenghong was not stable.
Wind data shows that from 2018 to 2022, Dongfang Shenghong's operating income was 1844 billion yuan, 2488.8 billion yuan, 2277.7 billion yuan, 5172.2 billion yuan and 6382.2 billion yuan;The net profit attributable to the parent company was 84.7 billion yuan, 161.4 billion yuan, 31.6 billion yuan, 454.4 billion and 54.8 billion yuan;The net profit deducted from the non-attributable to the parent company was 81.7 billion yuan, 135.1 billion yuan, 15.5 billion yuan, 123.6 billion and 08.5 billion yuan.
Among them, the high growth in 2021 is directly related to Dongfang Shenghong's acquisition of Serbang. According to the company's announcement, as of December 31, 2021, the cumulative actual realized performance amount of Serbang was about 374 billion yuan, and the completion rate of performance commitments is as high as 20966%。After calculation, in 2021, about eighty percent of Dongfang Shenghong's net profit attributable to the parent company came from Serbang.
***wind
In the first three quarters of 2023, Dongfang Shenghong achieved an operating income of 10364.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12189%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 247.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5715%。In the third quarter, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 79.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145758%, down about 17% from the previous month.
It is worth mentioning that Dongfang Shenghong has made a large amount of asset impairment in recent years. In 2022, the company made a total provision for impairment of various assets0.5 billion yuan. In the third quarter of 2023, Dongfang Shenghong made a total of 98.1 billion yuan, of which the provision for bad debts of receivables was 01.4 billion yuan, inventory decline provision of 96.7 billion yuan.
In the context of large fluctuations in performance, some institutional investors have lowered the performance of Dongfang Shenghong for three years**.
Considering the dual pressure on the company's cost and product side, Shenwan Hongyuan** lowered Dongfang Shenghong's 2023-2025 profit** by 311.1 billion yuan, 618.7 billion and 904.5 billion yuan (originally 6.8 billion.)100 million yuan, 967.2 billion and 119800 million yuan).
Coincidentally, Guohai ** also appropriately lowered the profitability of Dongfang Shenghong, and it is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2023 to 2025 will be 355.3 billion yuan, 647.6 billion and 905.2 billion yuan.
Huaan** is more pessimistic about the performance in 2023, and the brokerage expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Dongfang Shenghong in 2023-2025 will be 408.2 billion yuan, 635.7 billion and 1043.5 billion yuan (the original value in 2023-2025 is 65..)1.3 billion yuan, 735.8 billion and 1148.6 billion yuan).
Hua'an ** research report.
In more than two years, the market value has evaporated by 140 billion yuan.
The pessimism of the sell-side institution is directly reflected in the stock price of Oriental Shenghong in the secondary market, and in recent years, the stock price of Oriental Shenghong has continued to **.
Wind data, since Dongfang Shenghong was listed on the backdoor in 2018, the company's stock price reached a high of 41 on September 16, 202130 yuan, the company's highest market value once reached about 199.7 billion yuan.
However, since then, Dongfang Shenghong's share price has entered a downward channel.
On April 27, 2022, Dongfang Shenghong's share price fell to a minimum of 10$70, and thereafter on August 11 of that year** to 2483 yuan, but after all, it continued**.
A year and a half later, on December 20, 2023, Dongfang Shenghong's share price fell to a minimum of 865 yuan, a new low since November 14, 2020, is equivalent to a 37-month low.
As of the same day**, Oriental Shenghong was 866 yuan**, the company's market value fell to about 57.3 billion yuan, which is about 140 billion yuan evaporated from the highest market value of 199.7 billion yuan more than two years ago.
***wind
After the stock price hit a new low in 37 months, there was no shortage of complaints in Dongfang Shenghong's stock bar. After December 20th**, a shareholder posted and asked, "Can anyone tell me that 12 (yuan) can I still return to my capital in this life", and someone immediately replied, "Two or three years." Some optimistic shareholders said, "I won't wait long to make up for the dip." ”
Oriental Shenghong stock bar.
In addition to ordinary investors, some institutional investors are also in the shares of Oriental Shenghong.
From the perspective of the top ten outstanding shareholders, as of September 30, 2023, the proportion of shares held by Citibank, National Association and Hong Kong **Clearing *** Mainland Stock Connect) has decreased compared with the previous period. The two are respectively **Oriental Shenghong 77000,000 shares and 4088700,000 shares, the shareholding ratio is. 36%。
Wind data shows that from September 30, 2021 to September 30, 2023, the public offering ** was very strong for Dongfang Shenghong, and it held a total of 24,372 shares at the peak210,000 shares, and the shareholding ratio once reached 1407%；The lowest fell to 2215 on September 30, 2023270,000 shares, the shareholding ratio decreased to 040%。
***wind
It is worth mentioning that a number of recent research reports have pointed out that with the steady recovery of the macro economy, the price spread of domestic large refining and chemical enterprises has improved significantly, the pressure on the cost side has eased, and private large refining and chemical enterprises are expected to achieve value return.
However, some institutions pointed out that there are still risks in the current large refining and chemical industry. Chen Shuxian, an analyst at Soochow ** Energy and Chemical Industry, said that at present, there are large refining and chemical units in the industry, and the progress of production is not as expectedThe macroeconomic growth rate has declined severely, resulting in a serious sluggish demand sideGeopolitics and the risk of significant disruption of oil prices due to geopolitics and El Niño events and significant changes in the capacity of the PX-PTA-PET industry chain.
For Dongfang Shenghong, this is not good news.