Last year, today, just Yangkang.
In a blink of an eye, the epidemic era has become like a world away.
I used to think that if I pulled out the arrow that pierced my body, everything would get better immediately.
However, he suddenly pulled out the hole left by the arrow, and bled out.
It was only then that we suddenly realized that wounds take time to heal, and wounds are more painful to heal.
The pain is not only due to the wound itself, but also because the US dollar continues to raise interest rates, like inserting a blood pump into the wound, and domestic funds are constantly being pumped out.
Despite repeated cuts in domestic interest rates, money seems to be getting scarce and even deflationary for a time. The financial effect is transmitted, consumption is sluggish, the downturn is sluggish, and the property market is thundering.
Sober people, sober and painful;Confused people, confused and painful.
The financial war without gunpowder affects everyone invisibly and far-reachingly.
2023 is coming to an end, and a rate cut in the US dollar is expected.
However, drought is bitter, and so is waterlogging.
The world is always overcorrected, consciously or unconsciously, and every correction after overcorrection always has to pay some price. It's just that some people have become the price, and some people have reaped the price.
While cutting interest rates and deflation, the divergence is certainly controlled by the US dollar's interest rate hike, but at the same time, the flow rate of funds is also an important part that must be considered.
Fisher's monetary quantity equation has stated that MV=PT(M = amount of money, v = velocity of money, p = total volume of commodity transactions, t = commodity transactions**).
If you don't take into account v and blindly increase m, it is not a miracle but a backlash. Once the gear speed of the V increases, the MV will increase exponentially, and the flood will be flooded, which is the severe test we will face in 2024.
Especially when the dollar enters the interest rate cut cycle, a large amount of outflow of funds returns, trillions of external funds are superimposed on domestic additional funds, and then superimposed on the increasing speed of capital flow, and the drought becomes a flood in an instant.
We must believe that the country can build a dam to fight floods, but we must also be prepared for the imminent floods. After all, even a few waves splashing from the embankment and falling on the head of a person are monstrous waves.
Munger once said that the macro is what we must accept, and the micro is what we can make a difference.
When the flood comes, when inflation occurs, when a dollar is no longer worth a dollar, how not to be harvested, this is an important question that every sober leek needs to think about at the moment.
I'm sorry that no one can provide a standard answer to this question.
We have heard the tide, but we have not yet seen the tide, and without Noah's Ark, the sober can only cross by themselves.
In 2024, I hope that every friend who reads this article can find their own raft.
I wish you all a better New Year.