[Value Catalog]: Research Report Center with Views
Industry view: In 2023-2025, the price will be downward, and the reversal inflection point may appear in 2025
Compared with the tight supply and demand of the industry in 2022, there will be a slight surplus in the effective supply adjustment in 2023. In 2023, the supply will be released slowly, although the supply of environmentally friendly mica ore will be temporarily limited from January to May, but the overall supply for the whole year will still increase year-on-year. In fact, the terminal demand is basically in line with the expectations at the beginning of the year, but since the second half of 2022, the crazy replenishment of the entire industrial chain - the price has skyrocketed, and the entire industrial chain will be destocked in December 2022. In the first half of 2023, the power industry chain will be destocked, and the energy storage industry chain will be destocked from August 2023. The growth of terminal demand cannot be directly proportional to the purchase demand for potassium carbonate, which is the core reason for potassium prices** in 2023.
In 2023, the core capacity increment project of potassium resources is progressing smoothly, and it is found that it will be gradually released in the second half of the year. It is expected that in 2023, overseas pyroxene will add a total of 16The output of 90,000 tons of LCE is expected to increase by a total of 640,000 tons of LCE output;The growth of domestic carp pyroxene and salt lakes increased slightly, and the growth of Jiangxi carp mica mainly came from the Ningde era Shixiawo project in the second half of the year. 
Electric vehicles & energy storage are the core demand drivers in the next 5-10 years, and the first judgment in the year is related to seasonal changes in demand. Maintain optimism about the growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage, optimistic about the 32% compound annual growth of the carp industry in the next five years, and optimistic about the long-term upward development trend of the industry. In 2023, the consumption of new energy vehicles "Jinjiuyin+" will be advanced to April-June, corresponding to the hammer price stage**. In the second half of 2023, due to the front-loading of demand, there will be a phenomenon of "peak season is not prosperous", and prices will decline from August to the end of the year.
With loose supply + slowing demand growth, it is expected that prices will be in a downward channel in 1-2 years, and there may be signs of recovery in 2025. Around 2402, due to the destocking of the industry in 2023, it is possible that the short-term structural mismatch between supply and demand will bring potassium prices to 8-100,000 tons. Due to the impact of supply capacity reduction and the unexpected speed of supply, some projects put into production in the second half of 2024 may be delayed in the release of supply. As penetration increases, it is possible that the next upward cycle will be in 2025 rather than 2026, which is relatively balanced in the absolute balance sheet. 
01.Core view: **Downward range, there are strong layout opportunities for the lithium sector in 2024
Lithium prices are in the channel of the downward cycle, but considering that its terminal demand brings its strong growth that is different from traditional non-ferrous varieties, there is still an opportunity for a phased overfall. The sector will be launched before the spot. 
02.Short-term forecast: instant industry updates + lithium price trend in the next three months
Lithium prices will continue to fall in the fourth quarter of 2023, but with the "post-holiday procurement + marginal improvement in demand" in the first quarter of 2024, lithium prices are expected to win phased recovery opportunities.
03.Long-term outlook: The direction to focus on before waiting for the start of the next cycle
There has been a long-term mismatch between supply and demand, and the timeline of commodities at the "cycle high" is longer than the market thinks, and upstream lithium miners are stronger in this cycle, and this expansion makes the cost center and bottom of the entire industry significantly higher than the previous cycle
04.Investment advice
The core logic: "self-owned ore + volume has grown significantly within three years" companies, in the process of the industry's leading center of the downward trend, can still achieve performance growth. Recommended: Yongxing Materials, Zangge Mining, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, etc. Beneficiary: Sinomine Resources.
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
Non-ferrous metals-2024 lithium industry research and judgment analysis: growth is shape, cycle is the root-Guotai Junan [Yu Jiayi, Ning Ziwei, Liu Xiaohua]-20231209 [24 pages]".
Report**: Value Catalog