Author |Cao Anxun.
Edit |Zhang Xiaoling.
Since June 2021, the adjustment of the real estate industry has been so long and intense, and many real estate tycoons have fallen one after another, and some have simply fallen flat or disappeared, while Country Garden, the former universe real estate company, is still trying to persevere.
On December 8, Yang Huiyan, chairman of the board of directors of Country Garden, made a rare statement: "The family will definitely sell iron to support the company, and the company will strive to become a model for the recovery of insurance companies as soon as possible." ”
The gentle and elegant Yang Huiyan said this at the company's monthly management meeting, and such emotional words do not seem to be her usual style, which shows the current pressure on Country Garden.
Inside, Country Garden has just carried out a regional merger, and at the same time is going all out to ensure the delivery of the buildingElsewhere, Country Garden is negotiating a debt restructuring package with creditors, hoping to get breathing room like Sunac.
Yang Guoqiang and Yang Huiyan don't want to give up, they also want to try their best to save Country Garden.
In recent years, from Song Guangju, Wu Yajun, Ling Ke, Xu Yongjun to Xu Jiayin, Huang Qisen and others, real estate tycoons have either retired or fallen, and there are only a few people like Yang Guoqiang and Wang Jianlin who are still insisting on survival. In the long period of weak market and crisis, the credibility and will of the company's founders are more and more important, and creditors will see their sincerity in solving the problem, which will determine the life and death of the company.
The future of Country Garden still depends on the choice of the Yang family's father and daughter.
Since its public default in October, Country Garden has been shrouded in rumors. In the past two months, Country Garden's founder Yang Guoqiang, President Mo Bin, Yang Huiyan and her husband Chen Chong have publicly appeared in Shunde to thwart "departure rumors" and appease the market.
After a lapse of more than a month, Yang Huiyan once again stated that the family would smash the pot and sell iron to support Country Garden, which shows her determination to save the company.
As the controlling shareholder, the Yang family has supported Country Garden by borrowing, increasing its holdings, purchasing bonds, and paying dividends on behalf of shares, and has never supported Country Garden in total
Wall Street learned that Yang Guoqiang's family had provided an interest-free loan of $300 million to Country Garden in October, and Yang Guoqiang also sold a private jet, the Bombardier Global 6000.
Some investors said that the enterprises that are still insisting in the predicament are worthy of respect, but the statement is one thing, and it depends more on the follow-up actions of Country Garden.
At a time when the industry and the company are in turmoil, Yeung Wai Yin also strives to give more confidence to the market and investors.
She said that she has carried out a sensitivity simulation analysis of the extreme situations that the company may face in its operations. The conclusion is that under the conservative calculation, as long as Country Garden's inventory assets are sold normally, even if it is assumed that Country Garden does not buy land, does not reduce or reduce taxes, and does not consider the new contribution of one body and two wings, Country Garden will continue to maintain positive assets in the next ten years. "I am very confident that Country Garden will repair its balance sheet. ”
On this basis, Country Garden will have three main tasks in the next 12 months: ensuring delivery, ensuring operation and guaranteeing credit.
Among them, guaranteed delivery is regarded as the top priority by Country Garden.
Yang Huiyan revealed that in the next 12 months, Country Garden's delivery challenges will enter deep waters, and Country Garden's delivery volume is expected to exceed 400,000 units in 2024.
Mo Bin also emphasized at the meeting, "Ensuring delivery and safety and quality is the company's bottom line, and we must do a good job in bottom line management, which is also the bottom line of the company's survival." ”
In the first 11 months of this year, Country Garden has delivered a total of about 500,000 houses, with a cumulative delivery area of 60.43 million square meters, involving 31 provinces and 240 cities.
Country Garden is also working hard to maintain normal operations in order to cooperate with the delivery of the building. On December 5, Country Garden issued an internal document to make a series of drastic adjustments to the organizational structure, merging 14 regions into 7 new regions.
This also makes Country Garden no longer one of the largest number of real estate companies in China, and in three years, the number of regions has dropped from more than 100 to 21.
Prior to this, at the end of May, Country Garden also carried out the largest organizational structure adjustment in recent years, and Country Garden Holding Group set up a real estate group and a science and technology construction group, which has an unprecedented sense of accelerating diversified development.
Yang Huiyan said that now the company's organizational structure has reached a relatively stable stage, and the next step is to lock in outstanding talents and improve the salary and incentive mechanism.
In addition, Country Garden has significantly reduced its administrative expenses this year, down nearly 60% compared with 2021, in line with the regional reduction, and has made efforts to save food and clothing, and actively save itself.
Good news is also coming. On December 1, Country Garden was invited to participate in the bank-enterprise symposium of China Guangfa Bank, which shows that the bank still has hope for Country Garden to restore its credit and successfully go ashore.
The loss of Country Garden is a microcosm of the adjustment of the real estate industry in recent years.
In November, Country Garden achieved full-caliber sales of about 61100 million yuan;In the first 11 months of this year, Country Garden's full-caliber sales were about 2,124500 million yuan, ranking 6th among real estate companies.
Prior to this, Country Garden had won the annual champion of real estate sales for six consecutive years.
Once, Country Garden caught up with the good times of China's rapid urbanization. In the past ten years, Country Garden has expanded nationally at a high speed, given more authorization to the region, and superimposed a "high turnover" model, harvesting a large share of the sinking market.
In 2013, Country Garden's full-caliber sales exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, ranking among the first echelon of real estate enterprises. After that, Country Garden made great progress, and its annual full-caliber sales once exceeded 500 billion yuan, making it a "cosmic real estate enterprise" that was in the limelight.
However, the "three red lines" were born, torturing the cash flow management ability of real estate companies, and the original high-leverage and high-turnover model of working quickly will not work.
Due to the failure to withdraw in time to turn to first- and second-tier cities, the overly sinking layout dragged down Country Garden. After the market cooled in the second quarter of this year, Country Garden's sales immediately came under the greatest pressure, and finally in August, it could not hold on and fell into liquidity difficulties.
After completing the overall rollover of domestic debt in September, Country Garden is busy restructuring its offshore debt.
According to public statistics, as of October, Country Garden had a total of 15 public US dollar bonds of about US$9.3 billion, and if all of them participated in the restructuring, Country Garden would set a record for the top 3 overseas debt restructuring examples of real estate enterprises.
This will directly determine the company's credit and life and death, and the Yang Guoqiang family can only fight against the water.
In addition to debt restructuring, the Yang Guoqiang family is also accelerating the development of the "two wings" business, trying to find a new way out.
Country Garden revealed at a meeting on December 8 that "in addition to the main business of traditional real estate, the business of technology construction and escrow construction is also steadily advancing".
According to reports, since June this year, Bozhilin robots have begun to sell to the market, and are currently mainly leased to purchase and repurchase by old customersIn terms of escrow and construction, since the establishment of Phoenix Zhituo two months ago, Country Garden has added four new projects on the basis of the original projects, including Qinhuangdao, Luoyang, Shangqiu and Yancheng, and continues to cultivate new business growth points.
Yang Huiyan also said that while emphasizing delivery and operation, it is necessary to adhere to the medium and long-term development plan of "one body and two wings". This was once considered by her to be the focus of her work after taking the helm.
Yang Guoqiang and Mo Bin made a rare public appearance in October, which was to inspect the technology construction business, one of the businesses of the two wings.
The tide rises and falls, and the times change. Including Country Garden, Vanke, Longfor, Poly, etc., the leading real estate companies are struggling to survive and move towards the division of fate.
At present, Evergrande has fallen off the altar, Xu Jiayin and others have been taken away;Sunac has recently completed the overall restructuring of its debts and is trying to get back on trackYu Liang, the head of Vanke, is fighting back and asking for help from Shenzhen Railway, a state-owned shareholderLongfor has also continued to divert business and funds to cope with the increasingly difficult situationCentral enterprises such as Poly and China Merchants also launched a round of ** at the end of the year in order to quickly return funds.
As Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin, said, real estate has overshooted, but no one knows when the bottom will come. Wang Shi, founder of Vanke, believes that the real estate market needs a 3-5 year adjustment period.
In any case, people have already admitted that there is no going back to that era of real estate ** running blindfolded. Anyone in the future, any company, has to live a budget-conscious life, and this is probably just the norm.
This is a new era. Country Garden and the father and daughter of the Yang family can only adapt and go all out.
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