Some time ago, there was a blockbuster conference on finance**Politburo meeting convenedThe core key point lies in the policy tone, from stability to progress, from breaking to standing. Let's tell you three key messages in the vernacular, hoping that you can see clearly the prospects for economic development in 2024. 
The first is to set the tone for next year's economy as a whole. What we're going to do is:Seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and first establish and then break。In this paragraph, we just grasp two key words, the first is "to promote stability", last year mentioned the word stability, this year can not be seen, which shows that we are now more emphasis on economic development, for an enterprise or a country growth is the best medicine to solve all problems, so how to engage in growth?This depends on the second keyword, "first establish and then break". 
We ordinary people often say that if we don't break it, we can't stand it, but what should be the relationship between breaking and standing?The first establishment and then the breakthrough illustrate the rhythm problem in the process of transformation of old and new kinetic energy. For example, real estate, we know that its contribution to GDP will definitely decline in the future, but nowReal estate still accounts for 30% of GDPThen the new kinetic energy must be in scientific and technological innovation, such as semiconductor technology, medical treatment, new energy, humanoid robots, etc., but it takes more time for them to grow up, so before the new kinetic energy can exert force, the old kinetic energy must be able to stabilize, otherwise it is easy to have problems. Recently, you may frequently see many banks looking for these real estate companies to hold symposiums, and this is the reason why they want to give blood transfusions to real estate companies and help them tide over difficulties. At this time, if there is too much turbulence in the direction of real estate, it will affect the pace of economic recovery and everyone's confidence. 
The second is this timeFor the first time in the meeting, it was mentioned that it is necessary to strengthen economic propaganda and guidance。This is a highlight of this year's meeting, that is to say, not only to do well but also to speak well, when the wind is smooth, everyone will not have any doubts, but when sailing against the current, it is easy to self-deny. At a time when the competition between China and the United States is becoming more and more fierce, we do not have an advantage in financial discourse, for example, Moody's, who downgraded our sovereign credit rating, and then downgraded the rating of state-owned banks, but we have nothing to fight back. You see that the Federal Reserve is very good at expectation management, and Fed Chairman Powell's casual remarks can affect the volatility of global assets. The economy is not illusory, it is done by one individual after another, day after day. Therefore, in this period when faith is more important than **, how to gather confidence is a very important topic. 
The third isFiscal policy and monetary policy。The active fiscal policy used to be called afterburner to improve efficiency, and this year it has been expanded to moderate afterburner to improve quality and efficiency, which reflects that we are cautious as a whole, but still have a sense of purpose, so it is expected that the level of fiscal deficit at the beginning of next year should not be set very high, but in the middle of the period, if the downward pressure on the economy is relatively large, then it is time to shoot. Just like we have issued an additional trillion yuan of treasury bonds this year, the fiscal force has been renewed, and the monetary policy still emphasizes stability, flexibility, moderation, precision and effectiveness. To put it bluntly, we will not be flooded like the United States, like this year, we cut interest rates, they raise interest rates, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is relatively large, and next year after the Fed turns to an interest rate cut cycle, our monetary policy has more flexible space, and the possibility of another RRR cut next year has increased significantly. Well, real estate was not mentioned in this meeting because**The Politburo meeting mainly sets a general direction and tone, followed by the first economic work conference will make specific deployments. 
What do you think about this?As a guide to the market economy, we have to learn to assess the situation, see the current situation and make steady progress, and finally remember to follow me and take you to learn more about financial policies and financial knowledge!