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Genki Forestis a fast-growing but controversial company. From public reports, we are currently seeing more of the Metaverse ForestGrowth slowedThe products are lackluster, the sales target of 10 billion has not been reached, and some product lines have finally been abandoned. At that time, when the Yuanqi forest fire, sugar substitutes were also infiniteErythritolIt has become a fragrant glutton. Then the tide receded, and everything became a puffy cloud.
1. Sugar substitutes in the name of health
Sugar substitutes, also known as sweeteners, are a food additive that can be used:Substitute for sucroseFructose syrupand other traditional sugars with higher calories. It is well known that excessive sugar intake increases health risks that may cause:ObesityDiabeteswithTooth decay。In the context of the gradual increase in the incidence of obesity and diabetes in various countries around the world, sugar substitutes are no longer a new thing.
Sugar substitutes are both artificial and naturally derived. Artificial sweetenersIncluding:SucraloseAcesulfame potassiumAspartameand other products. Artificial sweeteners are widely used, have high safety, and are even lower in cost than sugars, so they are the mainstream of sugar substitutes.
Natural sweetenerIt is often produced by natural purification and synthetic biological methods. For exampleErythritolAlluloseMonk fruit sugarWait. These sweeteners exist in nature, but they tend to be very lowSweet-to-price ratio(a ratio of sweetness to cost) is even lower than sucrose, and must be used in large quantities to achieve the effect of sucrose. Natural sweeteners are costly, but they are "natural", so consumers will pay for them.
It is very difficult to fully simulate sucrose. The sensory evaluation of different sweeteners is different, with licorice flavor, post-bitterness, metallic taste, etc. Most sweeteners have unique sweetness and paraflavor characteristics relative to sucrose, and they can complement each other and exert synergistic effects.
Scene of partial sugar substitute compound Data**: Healthy Chinese Beverage and Food Sugar Reduction Action***
Second, different industry patterns
Comparatively,Artificial sweetenersofIndustry landscapeCompareStableThe new production capacity is limited, and it belongs to fine chemicals, and it has a strong selfSafetywithEnvironmental barriers。Jinhe Industrial (002597) is a leader in artificial sweeteners, with certain bargaining power in the industry, and good gross profit margin, accounts receivable and operating cash flow. However, even so, artificial sweeteners still can't stand alone in the tide of the cycle, and the current ** of sucralose is equivalent to the high point of 1 3 in the previous two years.
Sucralose**Trend Data**: Huachuang**.
Comparatively,Natural sweetenerofSupply and demand patternis even worse. In the early days, although the market space for natural sweeteners was not large, it was generally stable, at least everyone did not toss. However, in recent years, Internet celebrity sugar-free drinks represented by Yuanqi Forest have become all the rage, and under the stimulation of interests, players in the industry have been in the airExpansion of production capacity。There are not many barriers in this industry, and capacity construction is not expensive, so the capacity is quickly overcapacity. Caused by overcapacitySignificant price reductionsWhat's worse is that natural sweeteners are still sufferingDemand is weakThis is nothing less than a kind of double killing. It was originally a small and beautiful industry, but it became worse when it met the wind.
Gross profit margin of related companies (%) data**: Straight Flush iFind
3. Sugar-free, may not be **
Next, let's talk about the efficacy of sugar substitutes themselves.
For a long time, the main focus of sugar substitutes is health, and the reason is very simple, everyone can reduce the intake of high-calorie sugars by eating sugar substitutes, so as to achieve iteffect. However, the above view may not be scientific.
On May 14, the World Health Organization published the latest version of the Guidelines for Non-Sugar Sweeteners (NSS) with recommendations:Don't use non-sugar sweeteners (NSS) anymore**。WHO has analysed a large number of studies and found that sugar substitutes may contribute to short-term effects;But in the long run,And it won't continue to lose weight。Evidence from some prospective observational studies, as well as follow-up of up to 10 years, suggests that ingestionMore sugar substitutes(non-sugar sweetener).Associated with higher BMI and increased risk of developing obesity
Source**: World Health Organization***
The reason behind this is not entirely clear, one explanation is that sugar substitutes can trick the taste buds and make you feel sweet, but itAnd didn't fool the brainand may even make your brain smarter. The satisfaction of sweetness is getting lower and lower, just like "the wolf is coming", even after eating real sugar, the brain is no longer so actively physiologically prepared for digestion, and the feedback to "eat enough" is weaker and slower. As a result, sweet things may become more and more difficult to satisfy your appetite.
Also, if you've eaten sugar substitutes, you might tell yourself that you've eaten fewer calories today, and you're relieved that you might as well "reward" yourself. As a result, you eat more other things, and you end up with more energy than if you didn't eat sugar substitutes. In this matter, sugar substitutes may not only play a small role, but may even cause new problems.
Fourth, the ceiling of sugar substitutes is lower than you think
Even without taking into account these latest research results, sugar substitutesceilingsalso more than we imaginedLower。On the one hand, the prevalence of obesity and diabetes among the general population is increasing, and sweeteners are safe, reliable, and often less expensive, so they should quickly occupy the market. However, we find that to this day, sugar substitutesPermeabilityStillVery low。The market space of sucrose is 100 billion US dollars, the market space of synthetic sweeteners is about 7 billion US dollars, and the market space of natural sweeteners is only 1 billion US dollars.
First of all, not all sucroseThe scenario of the applicationcan be replaced with sugar substitutes. Beverages are the area with the highest penetration rate of sugar substitutes, while the proportion of sugar substitutes in bakery, dairy products and condiments is relatively low. When eating in a restaurant or ordering takeout, we rarely encounter sugar substitutes. The reason is that the sweetness of synthetic sweeteners is too high, which is difficult to control in cooking, and the taste of sugar substitutes and sucrose will be somewhat different, which also brings great challenges to cooking.
In addition,InterestingwithInnovationMaybe that's the driving force of the market. The new generation of consumers, especially the young people of Generation Z, love surfing and have pursuits. When moving bricks, "having a drink" or "having a bottle" after work has become one of the ways for them to relax and decompress, and in the face of many drink choices, they naturally have more expectations for interesting brands.
In the past few years, when sugar-free drinks were popular, we thought that "sugar-free" was the reason, and thought that consumers just liked sugar-free;In reality, however, "sugar-free" is more like a result, more like a result that happens to be in line with consumers' pursuit of fun and innovation, which is essentiallyCause and effect reversal。After a few years, everyone got tired of it, so they began to pursue a new trend.
No trend is forever young, but there is always a young trend.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.