Every cycle is an alternation of major opportunities and dangers, and we are not in a hurry for quick success or indulge in the future
Judging from the trend of the whole year, 2012 and 2018 are worth learning from, and the market in these two years fell from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. After seeing its first low on September 26, 2012, the market opened a two-month big on December 4, 2012. After seeing the first low on October 19, 2018, a new round of reversal began on January 4, 2018**. The commonality of 12 and 18 years is that the market has experienced a ** drop of low valuations for about a year, and both have opened a ** level ** around the end of the year. But the difference is that the second foot of the 12-year-old ticket fell more;In 18 years, the second foot, whether it is CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, etc., has not hit a new low, and only the weight index fell on January 4, 19. The current market is a bit like a small level of 18 years in the short term, and the economic cycle is more like 12 years in the medium term.
The road is blocked and the long way is coming
From the perspective of the larger cycle sequence, the Shenzhen Component Index is 8 months low in December and 8 quarters are low, so if the low 9 of the monthly and quarterly lines appears, they will fall in January 24;CSI 300 December monthly line low 8 quarter line low 9;The GEM was 9 months lower in December and 8 quarters lower. The bottom series is usually prone to lows at 8 to 10, and this low is the low of the big period. Looking at the cycle above the monthly line, the important lows of the major indices fell this month and the first quarter of next year.
Dark clouds can not blind the eyes
The Hang Seng Index will unsurprisingly set a record annual line of 4 consecutive negative results. But historically, the investment returns of Hong Kong stocks are not bad, so why do you feel bad?The reason is that domestic institutions are clamoring for the pricing power to be forcibly seized at the 3w point.
50 years ago, the Hang Seng Index rose from 150 points to more than 3W points in 18 years. Looking back, the AH premium has been around 115 for most of the time in history, but the average has been around 140** in the past two years, and it has been around 145** in recent months. As of yesterday, the AH premium was basically 150. Historically, except for '08, the high point of AH premiums has basically fallen around 151 152, and the lowest point has been around 88 in '14. In the case that the Hong Kong stock trading system is close to the developed and developed markets, the main reason for the high AH premium in the past two years is the withdrawal of foreign capital.
So the current Hong Kong stocks, are you afraid again?In fact, most people are set above 25,000, and now it is less than 1w8, and the bottom grinds the bottom and the more it falls, the more afraid it is. Investing is like playing baseball, you have to stare at the court instead of the scoreboard.
Of course, if you find yourself on a long-term leaky ship, it is easier to change the ship than to repair it. For example, U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks, but looking at it now, it is impossible to tell which can go further next year, repairing ships or changing ships.
Finally, let's talk about the short-term situation
The medium-term conclusion is to stay up, and most people can't survive in the short term. From the point of view of GJD, the main point is to protect Ichigo, but the market's expectations for GJD are very vague, and no one knows how much to buy, how much to buy, and how much to buy on which day. And the negative feedback force in the market is indeed not low, so we have also seen the situation that small tickets are exchanged for speculation weights in the performance vacuum period and are beaten every day. So aside from the monthly level series, after the new low of the weight index led by 50 and 300, a mid-yang is needed to establish the bottom of the daily level, and the current 300 is still about 1% away from the new low.
The ** from December to the first quarter lies in whether the weight rises generally, the weight rises, or continues to be small market capitalization after the weight appears at the bottomAt present, it is difficult to judge that the balanced position may be better, and it will be seen as you go in the later stage.
The bottom position dares to swim against the current in order to take the lead. But there is no such thing as 100% certainty in investing, and there are countless leverages before dawn, and a series of numbers 0 or 0. You have to make sure that the worst trend comes out before dawn, and you can survive tomorrow...