The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2024. The meeting noted that:Next year, we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policiesWe will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The proactive fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective.
It is not difficult to see that next year's economic work will still be "stable." But,In terms of connotation and expression, there are many new changes and new formulations。How to do a good job of "stabilizing" articles and writing a good chapter of "progress" in accordance with the requirements of the meeting is very important to do a good job in next year's economic work and achieve high-quality economic development.
Seeking progress while maintaining stability is still the general tone of economic work, and it is also a principle that must be adhered to in the current economic situation. But,Judging from the information conveyed by the meeting, new content should also be injected into seeking progress while maintaining stability, that is, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking. Promoting stability through progress is a requirement of transformational significance put forward after conducting a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the macroeconomic situation and conducting strategic research and thinking on the international and domestic economic environment. Steady growth and employment cannot always be passively defensive, but also take the initiative to attack, seek "stability" with "progress", and promote stability with progress. Only with such stability will the effect be better, the effect will be greater, and the stability will be stronger.
The first establishment and then the breakthrough lies in the development of thinking and the transformation of ideas on the basis of in-depth analysis and judgment of the current problems in some fields, industries and regions. Taking the real estate market as an example, it is to first establish a new model, a new system, and a new mechanism that adapts to the actual situation in our country, and then break the old model, old system, and old mechanism that have drawbacks, so as to reduce the contradictions, problems, risks and challenges in the process of changing the old and new systems, so as to make the transformation of the old and new systems, the old and new models, and the old and new mechanisms more stable and coordinated. Others, such as industrial transformation, transformation of old and new kinetic energy, transformation of energy structure, transformation of talent training methods, etc., should also be established first and then broken, rather than rushing to achieve new results. This is also a manifestation of "stability", and it is also a positive means to promote stability.
Fiscal and monetary policies are an important means of seeking progress and high-quality development in economic stability, and the meeting has not changed in its formulation, and it is still the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, but there are many new requirements in the content. The proactive fiscal policy must be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. Both policies emphasize the word "moderation", but the focus is different. The "moderation" of fiscal policy is mainly used to exert force, requiring more robust policies;Monetary policy is mainly reflected in flexibilityIt must be flexible and moderate, not rigid and immutable. At the same time, higher requirements have been put forward for the efficiency and effectiveness of the two major policies. Fiscal policy must improve quality and efficiency, and monetary policy must be precise and effective. The former is more efficient and the latter is more effective. The fiscal policy should give full play to the role of "allocating a thousand pounds in four or two" to stimulate social investment, especially non-governmental investment, to act together and stimulate residents' common consumption. Monetary policy should be more precise, effective and reliable, and it is necessary to truly prescribe the right medicine for the situation, improve the efficiency of the use of monetary funds, and comprehensively promote the high-quality development of the economy.
The meeting stressed that it is necessary to "strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies", fundamentally speaking, it is also to enhance the stability of the economy and achieve high-quality development of the economy in the smooth operation, rather than big ups and downs, high or low. Among them, cross-cyclical adjustment has a stronger role in stabilizing the economy, is more efficient in achieving sustainable economic development, and is conducive to promoting high-quality economic development. Counter-cyclical adjustment, on the other hand, focuses on ensuring that the immediate economy can grow and operate stably, while the task of long-term stability is entrusted to cross-cyclical adjustment. If the two can work in harmony, the stability of economic growth can be reassured, and it can also bring more stability to China's economy.
The meeting demanded that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other. It is also a new formulation and new requirement on the basis of comprehensively summing up this year's economic work, and it is important to know that in the current economic environment, it is impossible to achieve the smooth operation and steady growth of the economy by relying on any "carriage" aloneHowever, it is necessary to promote the coordinated operation and mutual promotion of consumption and investment, with consumption driving growth, investment promoting consumption, investment creating demand, and demand expanding consumption, forming a virtuous circle。Whether it is consumption or investment, it is necessary to meet the requirements of building a new development pattern and promote high-quality economic development.
Generally speaking, the focus of next year's economic work will still be "stability," but some new changes have also taken place in the connotation of "stability."Seeking new breakthroughs in the word "stability" and achieving high-quality economic development in the word "stability" are the top priorities of next year's economic work, and they are also a new positioning, a new tone, and a new goal。Therefore, the meeting particularly emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to and strengthen the party's overall leadership and implement the major decisions and arrangements for economic work with high quality. Only with high-quality implementation can we have high-quality efficiency, high-quality stability, and ultimately achieve high-quality economic development.