Reporter Xia Zhibin and Quartz Jing reported from Shanghai.
In the past 20 years, the global automobile industry has undergone tremendous changes, and the development of China's automobile industry has made historic achievements, but it is also facing the opportunities and challenges brought about by the great changes in the global automobile industry. On November 29, 2023, the 18th China Automotive Industry Forum was held at China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) Shanghai Campus, with Miao Wei, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, deputy director of the Economic Committee, and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, delivering a keynote speech.
In Miao Wei's view, the total volume and structural pattern of China's automobile market are undergoing profound changes.
Opinions on how big China's auto market is vary greatly. Miao Wei said in the forum: "I remember a few years ago when I was studying the '14th Five-Year Plan' automobile development plan, the most optimistic at that time was that by 2025, that is, at the end of the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, the annual production and sales of automobiles could reach up to 35 million to 40 million. But looking back, let's look at the actual situation, China's total automobile sales reached a peak of 28.88 million in 2017, and then experienced a downward adjustment for three consecutive years from 2018 to 2020, and a two-year rebound from 2021 to 2022, and the national car sales in 2022 reached 26.86 million, a decrease of 2 million from the peak in 2017. If the export volume of finished vehicles is deducted, the number of vehicles sold in the domestic market in 2017 will be 27.87 million units, and in 2022 it will be 23.75 million units, which is 4 million fewer units than in 2017. From January to October this year, the sales of automobiles in the country reached 23.97 million. It is expected that full-year sales will exceed 2017 to more than 29 million units, but after deducting the estimated export volume of about 5 million vehicles, only about 24 million vehicles will be sold in the domestic market. Personally, I believe that judging from the current domestic market conditions, it is unlikely that the domestic auto market will have large-scale growth in the foreseeable future. ”
For the structural adjustment of China's automobile market, Miao Wei pointed out that in 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in China were only 7770,000 units, and the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 reached 68870,000 units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 28 in 20222%, exceeding the target of 20% set in the 14th Five-Year Plan three years ahead of schedule. This year, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger car market will reach more than one-third, that is, one out of every three vehicles sold is a new energy vehicle. This substitution trend has been irreversible, and the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles has been formed. Originally, when formulating the "Medium and Long-term Development Plan for New Energy Vehicles (2021-2035)", the target of more than 50% of new energy vehicles in 2035 was determined, and it is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule by 2025 or 2026 at the latest.
Miao Wei believes that the changes in the structure of China's automobile market have made traditional fuel vehicle companies face a "two-line operation" situation of not only maintaining market share in the case of a sharp decline in the total volume, but also catching up in the development of new energy vehicles.
Miao Wei stressed at the forum that traditional car companies should be soberly aware that they only take a defensive position, although the share has been retained, but the total amount has fallen. Only by not falling behind in the growing situation of new energy vehicles can we truly maintain our market share.
The reporter of China Business News noted that with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the sales of self-owned brand passenger cars reached 598 in the first half of this year60,000 units, an increase of 22 over the same period last year4%, with a market share of 531%。"This is the first time that we have surpassed the sales of foreign brand passenger cars in the domestic passenger car market, which has changed the pattern of foreign car brands occupying the main position of the Chinese passenger car market for a long time, and this is an irreversible trend. Miao Wei said, "It is precisely because of the opportunity in the development of new energy vehicles that China's automobile companies occupy about 80% of the domestic new energy vehicle market, and we are full of confidence in the future development of intelligent networked vehicles and the continued growth of new energy vehicles." ”