Beijing**Client|Written by Fan Hengshan.
In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP increased by 5% year-on-year2%, the economic growth is among the highest among the world's major economies. The main economic indicators have improved further in recent months, and there should be no problem in achieving the expected targets set at the beginning of the year. What is the next trend of China's economic annual growth and whether it can maintain a stable growth for a long period of time has become a focus of attention and research at home and abroad.
For China's economy, with the continuous expansion of the base, the difficulty of maintaining and improving economic growth comes from two aspects: from a domestic point of view, high-quality development has become the main axis, not all means can be used to promote economic growth, and not all economic growth is acceptable, what we need is efficient, coordinated, green and safe growth;From a foreign perspective, the development environment is tighter, and the containment and suppression to curb China's sustained economic growth will continue to increase. However, long-term practice has shown that China's economic development has strong resilience and deep potential, and as long as the strategies and policies are in place and the institutional mechanisms are vigorous, China's economy can continue to maintain stable growth.
On the whole, China's economy has a series of favorable conditions or comparative advantages to achieve stable growth, including the advantages of the socialist market economic system, the advantages of a super-large-scale market, the advantages of a complete industrial system, and the advantages of a large number of high-quality labor force and innovative talents. From a regional perspective, China's economic development potential is also very profound. To a certain extent, the national economy is the sum of the regional economy, and the so-called regional prosperity leads to the prosperity of the country. The adoption of effective macroeconomic and regional policies can translate regional development potential into realistic economic growth. From a regional perspective, China's economic development or growth potential is reflected in at least the following aspects:
Urban-rural integrated development and mutual promotion. As far as China is concerned, the vast rural areas are the weakest link in economic development, so we say that the most arduous and arduous task of comprehensively building modernization lies in the rural areasBut at the same time, it is also where the greatest potential of economic development lies, and rural revitalization will inevitably bring high-level and high-quality economic growth. This potential mainly comes from two aspects: one is to "fill in and fill in", realize the overall planning and integrated improvement of rural and urban areas in infrastructure construction, public service supply, and people's living improvement, and greatly narrow the gap between urban and rural areas;The second is "fair trade", which stimulates the vitality of rural resource elements and realizes the equal exchange of urban and rural elements, and the same rights and rules. The fundamental way to stimulate potential lies in breaking the dual structure of urban and rural areas, promoting urban-rural integration, and promoting urban-rural complementarity and mutual assistance between workers and peasants on this basis. The main tasks are: On the one hand, on the basis of deepening the reform of the household registration system and improving the public service system, we should further promote the transfer of the rural population to the cities;On the other hand, on the basis of innovating the rural land system and developing economies of scale, we should promote the entry of advantageous backbone enterprises, modern management methods, and advanced technological means into the rural areas to serve agriculture and farmers.
The administrative junction area is accelerated to bulge. Administrative border areas at all levels involve a large area of national territory, and due to internal contempt and external strife, most of the administrative border areas are in an underdeveloped situation, and their accelerated bulge may become an important source of stable economic growth of the country. In addition to the implementation of measures such as increasing investment and carrying out counterpart assistance in the administrative region, the most important and effective measure is to promote the establishment of economic cooperation zones in various regions at the administrative junction, strengthen the integrated construction of key areas and key links, and achieve mutual support and mutual benefit and win-win results. In this way, the constraints will become mutual aid, the periphery will become the center, and the cold area will become a hot land, and the economic energy of this piece of land can be fully released.
The "bog" city is back in power. "Splendid and wonderful" has been the basic feature of China's regional economic development over the past 20 years, but in the process, there have also been obvious regional differentiations. One of these phenomena is that a small number of cities that were once leaders in the world are experiencing economic growth stalls and are in trouble. The main manifestations are heavy burden, aging structure, and lack of innovation, and its further development is affected by both the internal "broken window effect" and the external "Matthew effect". These cities have good basic conditions, and the state will help these cities get out of the quagmire, revitalize their vigor, and become important growth poles supporting the country's high-quality development through strategic tilt, policy incentives, and team building.
Synergy and linkage of regional central cities. Cities are the concentrated carrying places for optimizing resource elements, especially central cities, and their development energy is extraordinary. However, a common problem is that the competition between central cities is significantly greater than cooperation due to the constraints of basic interests. This not only leads to a high degree of dispersion of innovation resources, but also brings mutual constraints. Therefore, promoting the synergy between cities, especially between central cities, has become an important driving force to improve the level of national economic growth. To stimulate the momentum of the city, we need to focus on two aspects: on the one hand, promote a reasonable division of labor, strengthen the development of characteristics, and reduce blind competition;On the other hand, we should establish a restraint mechanism to promote overall planning, integrated construction, and complementary advantages in key areas.
Major functional platforms support and lead. Continuous promotion of the construction of functional platforms such as new areas, free trade zones, development zones and demonstration zones is a feature of China's modernization, and practice has proved that various functional platforms are not only a test field for exploring the path of reform and opening up, but also a source of important scientific and technological innovation and industrial transformation, as well as a power source and support point for promoting high-quality development. Improving the operation quality of existing major functional platforms, strengthening their first-in-the-test characteristics, promoting mutual learning and sharing of good regulations, and adding a number of distinctive functional platforms in combination with the implementation of major regional strategies will greatly strengthen the momentum of national economic development and promote steady and rapid economic growth.
Integration and linkage of major regional strategies. The major national and regional strategies integrate high grade, strong kinetic energy, wide influence and great benefits, and play a significant role in promoting the development of the regional economy and the entire national economy. At present, the scope of implementation of major regional strategies is mainly reflected in the set regional scope. ** It is required to "promote the integrated development of major national regional strategies". The implementation of this requirement can not only prevent the "dividend gap" from evolving into a "regional overhang", but also promote the major strategic benefits of Ganlin and the general decline, so as to fully stimulate regional vitality and effectively improve the level of national economic growth.
"Three-dimensional expansion" of regional industries. Closely following the people's growing needs for a better life, docking with the cutting-edge achievements of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, a number of new economic forms relying on airspace and sea space have been expanded and expanded, and regional economic development has further moved from "flat" to "three-dimensional", providing more solid support for the stable growth of the national economy. For example, the low-altitude economy has become a new track for the development of domestic industries, with the flight activities of manned aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles as the traction, comprehensively driving the development of many industries such as low-altitude flight, manufacturing, support, and comprehensive services, promoting the integration of sea, land and air, and the organic integration of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, forming a dynamic economic growth point.
Digital reshaping of the regional economy. Regional digitalization is the inevitable result of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, and China is one of the countries that is promoting digitalization the fastest. For regional development, digital technology can effectively subvert the traditional spatio-temporal model, resolve the dilemma of the natural geographical environment, and allocate resource elements beyond the actual development infrastructure, so digital technology can greatly expand the economic operation space and improve the operation efficiency, and also provide favorable conditions for backward regions to achieve leapfrog development. The digital transformation or reshaping of the regional economy will greatly improve economic efficiency, thus becoming an important guarantee for the stable growth of the national economy.
The author is the former deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission).