Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of downstream demand for lithium batteries has slowed down, orders are insufficient, and the capacity expanded in the early stage has directly brought the industry into a stage of surplus.
Data show that from January to November this year, the total cumulative output of power and energy storage batteries in China was 6987GWh, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China is 3397gwh。The trend of "overcapacity" has swept the entire industrial chain.
Industry insiders believe thatIn 2023, China's power battery capacity utilization rate may drop to 41%.
The industry is deeply reshuffledWhat does a 41% capacity utilization rate mean?
According to statistics, the average capacity utilization rate of battery production in China is less than 50%, and even the capacity utilization rate of CATL, a leading enterprise, fell to 60 in the first half of the year5%, and only rebounded to more than 70% in the third quarter, which is still at a historically low level.
In 2021, CATL's capacity utilization rate reached 95%, and in 2022, the capacity utilization rate was 834% 。
The "King of Ning", which occupies half of the country, is still like this, and the pressure on other enterprises can be imagined.
At present, there has been overcapacity in the battery industry, and the upward transmission of the pressure of the terminal market is superimposedThe "knockout game" of the power battery industry has gradually kicked off.
However, it is worth noting that the overcapacity of the battery industry is also increasing at the same time, and the capacity utilization rate of second-tier enterprises is often higher than 50%. On the other hand, tail enterprises, subject to practical factors such as production capacity, technology, and capital, their capacity utilization rate is generally less than 30%.
This is not limited to battery production. In fact, with the launch of industry expansion projects, the oversupply of the four main materials in the lithium battery industry intensified in the first half of the year.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, the planned investment amount of China's four main lithium battery materials will exceed 500 billion yuan, and the capacity utilization rate of most enterprises has fallen below 60%.
At present, the inertia of capacity expansion is gradually reversing, but the head enterprises have not reported the news of changing the expansion plan, and the production capacity in the market is still increasing.
In the context of overcapacity and the downturn in the general environment, there is a demand for eliminating backward production capacity in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and tail enterprises that do not have the strength of scale will bear the brunt and face the elimination crisis.
Businesses are betting on multiple partiesA new cycle is about to begin, which means that the last round of technological innovation is nearing its end. When the market tends to be homogeneous, there will inevitably be low-price competition and even loss-making competition.
Therefore,The layout of cutting-edge technology has become the focus of the strategic planning of power battery enterprises.
New technologies such as fast charging technology, low-temperature technology, solid-state batteries, semi-solid-state batteries, and large cylindrical batteries have become the targets of various companies.
CATL:In the past two years, CATL has successively released sodium-ion batteries, condensed matter batteries, and Kirin batteries. In August this year, the world's first lithium iron phosphate 4C super-rechargeable battery was released, which opened the prelude to the competition of fast charging technology in the battery industry.
BYD:BYD launched the "blade battery" in 2020 to improve the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries. In July this year, BYD officially announced that it would lay out cylindrical batteriesIn November this year, BYD announced that it would cooperate with Huaihai Holding Group to build a sodium-ion battery production base project, officially entering the sodium-ion battery.
China Innovation Airlines:After years of research and development, China Innovation Aviation has now mastered innovative technologies such as all-tab lamination technology and OS technology, and proposed the industry's first "top flow" structure and 46 series large cylindrical technology, with a battery energy density of up to 300Wh kg and support 6C+ fast charging. At present, the key historical node that determines the new industrial pattern in the next decade is coming, and enterprises need to pay attention to the changes in key indicators such as technology and cost, solve the pain points of the industry earlier, realize the industrialization layout faster, and seize the opportunity in the new cycle.