[Introduction].December is coming to an end, this month, the pig ** showed a trend of "rushing down**", however, the pork pickling is good to cash, the slaughter of slaughtering enterprises has increased significantly, and at the same time, the slaughter of pigs has also increased significantly!In particular, after entering the middle of the year, affected by the low temperature and cold wave, the southern pickled meat was fully cashed, and the pig price briefly rose sharply, and the price of foreign three-yuan pigs increased from 1356 kg to 1472 yuan kg, in some provinces and regions in East China, the average price of live pigs rose by 1625 yuan kg, the regional price spread expanded, the northeast and northwest regions of the pig slaughter also showed a "blowout" trend, the regional pig transfer increased, the southern region of the fat pig price is poor, further dragged down the standard pigsAround the winter solstice, pig prices fell and bottomed out again21 yuan kg!
At the same time, the domestic standard fertilizer price spread has gradually narrowed, entering December, the standard fertilizer price spread from -06 yuan kg, down to -0About 3 yuan kg, the standard fertilizer price spread has weakened significantly, and the standard fertilizer price spread in southwest China has increased from -12 yuan kg narrowed to -07 yuan kg, in central China and some parts of East China, the inversion of the standard fertilizer price spread appeared, and the market demand for large fertilizer gradually cooled down, which also dragged down the performance of the standard pig, therefore, around the winter solstice, the pig price trend was weak, and the peak season was not prosperous!
However, with the arrival of the end of the month, pig prices "fell to rise", and the short-term market bullish mentality became stronger!On the one hand, consumer demand on New Year's Day may improve significantly, the downstream market before the holiday or there is obvious demand for stocking, slaughterhouse orders increase, the operating rate will remain high, and the market demand will still have a certain increaseOn the other hand, the pig ** is low, this month the northern region of the pig slaughter rhythm is faster, near the end of the month, the pressure of farmers to slaughter is reduced, part of the ** pig farm price mentality to become stronger, the group pig enterprises have a certain price reduction operation, which also supports the performance of pig prices!
According to the analysis of the institution, on December 27, the average price of three-yuan lean pigs at home and abroad was 008 yuan, the slaughterhouse pig settlement price remained at 1429 yuan kg, the domestic market shows a strong trend in most of the mainstream provinces and regions, and the pig price is **005~0.3 yuan kg, of which, in Northeast China and North China, the pig price in the provinces hovered at 136~14.5 yuan, the average price of live pigs in the North China market generally rose to 14 145 yuan kg. In the southern market, the southwest market** rose to 137~14.4 yuan, East China** rose to 144~15.8 yuan, 14 yuan in central China3~14.8 yuan, South China market**139~14.2 yuan kg!
At present, pig prices are showing a strong trend, but, rationally, this month's pig prices have fallen, with an increase of only 065 yuan kg, and the first region is generally concentrated in East China and Central China market, which also means that the support of pickled meat for pig prices is limited, and the logic of pig prices is that after the end of October, Shandong, Henan and surrounding provinces and regions, pig farms have epidemic phenomena, accelerate the performance of standard pigs and large pig production capacity, and enter the pickled season, the local pig source is insufficient, and the large factory has increased greatly, which also supports the performance of pig prices in the month!
As for the prospect of pig prices, from a rational point of view, this round of pig prices may be "lost"!On the one hand, the pig price does not have a sustainable and effective performance, the pressure of the stage pig is still there, the large pig is weak, and the standard pig lacks a substantial performanceOn the other hand, the southwest pickled meat is gradually finished, the operating rate of slaughterhouses will also be "booming and declining", and the downstream demand will gradually weaken, while the domestic frozen pork storage capacity rate is as high as 2473%, superimposed, the recent increase in the slaughter of large pigs, the average weight of white pigs after slaughter has increased, and the capacity of pork has been greatly improved!
Therefore, in the long and short game, in the short term, the market will still be low-level pull-based, by the fluctuation of sentiment at the breeding end, pig prices or will continue the trend of high frequency, the center of gravity or slightly raised, after entering the second half of January, with the arrival of the new year, the downstream centralized stocking or will be greatly improved, pig prices are short-lived or expected to go higher, however, I personally believe that before the Spring Festival, pig prices do not have a comprehensive "break 8" trend, ** will still be maintained in the "7 yuan era"!
From falling to rising!The price spread of standard fertilizer has narrowed, and the price of pigs has been "lost".Pig price on December 27What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet, the content is for reference only!
Hogs**