Will the ruble remain stable after "de-dollarization"?
In Russia's war against Ukraine, people are not only concerned about the war, but also about Russia's financial problems. After being kicked out of the International Funds Clearing System (SWIFT), Russia has been working to de-dollarize.
The loss of the dollar will not only affect the settlement of exports, but more importantly, imports. Russia tried to use the ruble for bilateral **, but the ruble has fallen into waste paper, will others be willing to accept it?
Russia has developed two strategies for this: first, it stipulates that bilateral ** must be settled in rubles, and without rubles it is possible to buy rubles in dollars;Secondly, the ruble is anchored ** to ensure the stability of the ruble **.
These measures have made the ruble hit the bottom**, as if it had become a settlement currency, and the passive de-dollarization has been successful!This result has goose fans cheering and believing that de-dollarization has been successful.
But is it really that simple?You must know that the dollar settlement system was established in 1944, and the Western countries led by the United States established the Bretton Woods system of "double peg and one fixed", that is, the U.S. dollar is pegged to **, the currencies of other countries are pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the international exchange rate implements an adjustable fixed exchange rate system, also known as the peg to the U.S. dollar.
This system makes the U.S. dollar the world's largest settlement currency and international reserve asset. However, in the 70s of the last century, the United States was forced to cancel the gold standard and make the dollar a credit currency because of its own economic weakness.
The issuance of the US dollar does not require ** as a reserve, but this does not affect the dominance of the US dollar in international transactions. Especially in the early 70s of the last century, the emergence of the international fund clearing system (SWIFT) made most transactions in commodities such as oil through the US dollar, which further consolidated the hegemony of the US dollar.
The credibility of the US dollar mainly comes from the strong economic strength and independent monetary policy decision-making mechanism of the United States, and its military strength has become an important guarantee for maintaining the status of the US dollar.
In fact, neither the yen, nor the euro nor the pound sterling can pose a challenge to the dollar. If countries leave the dollar, their imports and exports will face serious problems, because the dollar is still the most important settlement currency in the world.
In the old era of the U.S. dollar, countries held the U.S. dollar as well as held it, because the U.S. dollar could be exchanged for an equivalent at a fixed rate. However, with the advent of the era of credit money, in addition to maintaining economic stability and development as a guarantee for the dollar, the dollar's prudent and conservative monetary policy is also a key factor in maintaining its creditworthiness.
Talk about Russia's plans for "de-dollarization". Russia requires its partners to settle in rubles, a measure that stems from the dependence of other countries on Russian oil and gas resources.
However, this method only applies to oil and gas resources, and does not apply to other alternative commodities**. Moreover, with the implementation of sanctions by some EU countries, the prospects for Russian exports are not promising.
From the point of view of imports, without earning dollars, it is impossible to pay the ruble, and the ruble cannot be accepted by other countries. In addition, the ruble is pegged to **, unlike the dollar in the era of the gold standard, and Russia does not have enough ** to exchange.
Finally, no currency can replace the dollar without a strong economy. If any country chooses the ruble as a long-term settlement currency, it may be harvested by the Central Bank of Russia, since the exchange rate and prices of the ruble are determined by the Central Bank of Russia itself.