Text: Yang Guoying.
With the decoupling and de-chaining of developed economies on the left, and India, Mexico, Vietnam, and other countries encroaching and catching up with the manufacturing industry on the right, where are the big countries in the East going?
Combined with the strategic layout of the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the rhythm of the diplomatic, economic, trade and monetary links of the eastern powers in the past two years, a far-reaching real picture of the breakthrough of the three rings of foreign countries has actually jumped on the current global map.
The first link breakthrough of the eastern powers to the outside world:
The first link, the core is the economic and trade chain, which can be linked in the short term and can make money from each other, and this link focuses on Southeast Asia and West Asia.
Southeast Asia and West Asia, with a total population of nearly 1 billion and a total GDP of nearly 7 trillion US dollars, more than half of China's total GDP and about 10% of the world's total GDP - this is quite important, this deep link is in place, and the fundamentals of China's economy can be relatively stable, at least not seriously out of control.
Now, the total amount of our products with Southeast Asia has accounted for the first place in China's import and export, of course, the overall surplus is still limited, and some of it is intermediate goods, as well as the re-export of China's domestic capital.
The export of West Asia should continue to increase in the next few years, and the focus is to narrow the deficit of the original import proportion, which is good for our foreign exchange, which is also quite important.
In the Middle East of West Asia, after the Eastern powers successfully mediated the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran for thousands of years, the Middle East countries began to turn eastward clearly, not only the economic and trade integration of each other accelerated, the Eastern countries need the energy of the Middle East, the Middle East needs the manufacturing and large infrastructure of the Eastern countries, and many countries in the Middle East have begun to carry out local currency settlement with the Eastern countries, which poses a challenge to the petrodollar.
The second ring breakthrough of the eastern powers to the outside world:
The second ring, the core is the security chain, Russia, Belarus, the five Central Asian countries, North Korea and Mongolia in Northeast Asia, Palestine in South Asia, etc., this whole is not very profitable.
Russia, after the Russian-Ukrainian war fell into a protracted war and the United States, Europe and Japan continued to increase sanctions and support for Ukraine, Russia has made clear its strategy to the east this year and began to fully embrace the eastern powers, not only clarifying the Northeast-Far East locking cooperation (Russia exports energy and food, and the eastern powers export goods and infrastructure), and completely opens Vladivostok and Sakhalin to the eastern powers, and now Russia uses the yuan as its intermediate currency with many countries around the world, which has been more obvious.
In Central Asia, in May this year, the China-Central Asia Summit was successfully held in Xi'an, and in the declaration between China and the five Central Asian countries, it was clear that "we are determined to work together to build a closer China-Central Asia community with a shared future", and during the summit, China and the five Central Asian countries also signed more than 100 cooperation agreements in specific fields.
Note that the deepening of economic and trade ties between China and Central Asia is proof of the further expansion of China's economic fundamentals, and of course, it is also a wise choice for Russia to enter the war and choose to cede its traditional fundamentals, rather than to the Western countries, it is better to cede to the eastern powers.
The third ring breakthrough of the eastern powers to the outside world:
The third ring, which has both economic and trade chains and political chains, is relatively geographically distant, mainly involving parts of South America, Africa and Central and Eastern Europe.
Among them, South America has a total population of about 400 million (including more than 200 million people in Brazil), and a total GDP of 3About 8 trillion US dollars, China and Brazil have accelerated the promotion of local currency settlement this year, which is very imaginative, of course, it has also indirectly put greater pressure on the United States.
The breakthrough of the eastern powers to South America focuses on economy and trade as a whole, but it is expected that the competition will be fierce, after all, South America is the backyard of the United States.
Although Africa has a large population, with more than 1.4 billion people, its GDP is only 2About 5 trillion, it is too poor, except for the per capita GDP of more than 10,000 US dollars (note, the population of Gusser) is only 100,000 US dollars, Gabon's per capita GDP is 8,000 US dollars (population is only 2.2 million), the real population is slightly more, more than 30 million people, only South Africa has a per capita GDP of more than 6,000 US dollars, Morocco's per capita GDP is about 4,000 US dollars, and the per capita GDP of other African countries is below 2,000 US dollars, and Ethiopia, which has a little more population (1200 million), Tansenia has a population of more than 60 million, and its per capita GDP is only about 1,200 US dollars.
To sum up, although Africa has a large population, the per capita GDP of the whole of Africa is only a little more than 1,000 US dollars, which is really too poor.
For example, the high-speed railway connecting Budapest, the capital of Hungary, and Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, is jointly built by China, Hungary and Serbia, and the characteristics of aid construction are relatively obvious.
The breakthrough of the three rings of the eastern powers to the outside world is a helpless choice for the world to enter the new Cold War stage, and it has its phased rationality.
Of course, the time span of the stage of the global power game is at least about 10 years, and it is certainly not comparable with the general financial market stage.
However, there is a structural bug in the three-ring breakthrough of the eastern powers, which is fully focused on the three-ring breakthrough of emerging economies - how to get a real surplus?How the hell do you really make money?How can we really stabilize the domestic economy of the big eastern countries?
After all, with the exception of a few regions and some countries, the purchasing power of emerging economies in the world as a whole is still weak.
More on this structural dilemma another day.
Let's talk about today's market.
, the energy storage industry "kills the red eye", and the bidding ** continues to hit new lows.
According to the incomplete statistics of the DataLink global energy storage database of the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, as of September 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of electric energy storage projects in operation in China has reached 752GW, up 50% year-on-year.
Although China's energy storage market has accelerated growth this year, showing broad market prospects, the new energy storage pure winning bid has fallen again and again, CNESA data shows that in November, the average bid price of the energy storage system in November, the 2-hour lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage system is 80046 yuan kWh, down 47% compared with the beginning of the year;The price of the 4-hour energy storage system is 73631 yuan kWh, a record low.
From the bidding point of view, it shows the fierce competition between energy storage companies, and the recent bid for the purchase of energy storage system B package 80MW 320wh for the Gongma energy storage power station project in Hainan Prefecture, Qinghai Province has hit a record low again, and the lowest is only 058 yuan Wh, the lowest bid section of 5GWh lithium iron phosphate energy storage system in the middle of this month**0638 yuan wh, less than a month.
The fundamental reason for this situation in the energy storage market is the intensification of market competition, with the rapid growth of market demand for energy storage, the expansion of the industrial chain has also entered a state of almost fanatical competition, according to GGII data, as of August 2023, the domestic energy storage business related enterprises have exceeded 1220,000, at the same time, the domestic energy storage battery and system planning and construction capacity has exceeded 15TWh, with a planned investment of more than 570 billion yuan.
At present, all parties in the energy storage industry are falling into malicious competition, and the whole industry is in dire straits, we believe that the energy storage industry may enter a more brutal "knockout game" next year, especially two types of enterprises will face greater challenges, one is the early financing more, with high investment to compete for the project of the enterprise;The other type is the battery cell enterprises in the energy storage chain, which is mainly because the surplus of the battery cell market is very common.
It is worth noting that despite the serious overcapacity of the current energy storage industry, the capital market is still increasing investment, for example, Corun recently announced that it plans to increase its capital by 100 million yuan to strengthen the construction of the energy storage system integration business of the subsidiary.
, Synopsys, a maker of chip design softwaresynopsys) has submitted for the acquisition of engineering software ** Nexperia (ansys).
Foreign media reported that recently, chip design giant Synopsys has made a takeover offer to engineering software ** Nexperia, and ** much higher than $400 per share, if the negotiations go well, the deal may be announced in the next few weeks, affected by this, Nexperia's stock price rose 18% last Friday, with a market value of $31 billion.
It is worth noting that Synopsys and Nexperia were two giant companies that "do not interfere with river water", so why did Nexperia suddenly decide to give it to Nexperia?
It is reported that Nexperia is one of the earliest mechanical CAE software developers, in the field, has been firmly in the industry leader, accounting for 42% of the market share, although Siemens, Dassault Systèmes and other modules have also established, but can not compete with Nexperia.
In the past three years, Nexperia began to enter the field of electronic design automation software EDA, and now Nexperia has become one of TSMC's four major standard software, and is also the only non-EDA software vendor in addition to the EDA three giants, Synopsys, Cadence and Mentor, which makes it the fourth largest EDA company and the largest EDA** software company.
Due to the smaller and smaller size of chip design, coupled with the emergence of the stacking technology of chiplet chips, the best calculation of multiphysics is already an unavoidable thing, which is also the reason why the three major EDA software are moving closer to mechanical heat transfer.
Previously, micro-sized EDA software and macro-sized CAE have been diverging, and now, as Moore's Law gradually comes to an end, the two seem to be merging, and the merger of the two giants is a sign that the EDA industry may usher in major changes.
aListed companies reproduce strange cases, companiesHundreds of millions of dollars were bizarrely swept away.
Recently, Weichuang shares suddenly announced that the company's books were 13300 million funds were bizarrely swept away, which shocked the market for a while and caused heated discussions in the market.
It is reported that Weichuang Co., Ltd. recently suddenly conducted a comprehensive self-examination of the company's funds, finance, letter disclosure, personnel changes and other matters, and found that Liu Jun, the actual controller of Xiling Energy, the company's proposed acquirer, transferred the company's 13300 million yuan of funds were transferred to the bank account controlled by it and returned to the company in full on October 31, but it has been transferred out of the company in batches since November 1, and the funds have not been returned to the company so far.
As for the origin of Xiling Energy and Liu Jun and why the huge amount of money was swept away, Weichuang shares were secretive and did not mention it in detail in the announcement.
For 13On the evening of the 22nd, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange quickly issued a "Letter of Concern" to Weichuang, and on the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also filed an investigation on the company and the proposed acquirer Liu Jun.
It is worth noting that the Xiling Energy and the actual controller Liu Jun mentioned by Weitron in the announcement are suspected to not exist;Prior to this incident, the company's core executives frequently resigned;In addition, the company also has a huge amount of funds suspected of being occupied.
We believe that it is imperative for Vtron to take all necessary measures to recover the relevant funds as soon as possible and to hold accountable those responsible for violations of laws and regulations.
The main reason is that small and medium-sized investors have very limited corporate governance rights, and individual entities regard the property of listed companies as ownerless and plundered at will, which seriously damages investors' confidence in the A** field, so in order to boost investor confidence, we must establish the belief that "the property of listed companies is sacrosanct", and at the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the public security and other law enforcement departments need to implement the "fangs and thorns".
During the year, the number of convertible bond issuers and the scale of fundraising of listed companies both declined year-on-year.
Since the beginning of this year, the scale of convertible bonds issued by listed companies has decreased, and as of December 22, a total of 134 convertible bonds have been issued during the year, with a total amount of 13458.8 billion yuan, compared with 147 convertible bonds issued last year, raising a total of 219 billion yuan.
Although the number of convertible bond issuers this year has declined compared with last year, the decline in the scale of fundraising is more significant, mainly due to the lack of large-scale convertible bond fundraising this year.
From the perspective of issuance scale, three companies raised more than 5 billion yuan in convertible bonds during the year, all of which came from the photovoltaic industry, namely JinkoSolar, JA Solar and Trina Solar, with a fundraising scale of 10 billion yuan and 89.9 billion yuan respectively600 million yuan and 886.5 billion yuan, in addition, Shandong Road and Bridge, Hengbang shares, Shenzhen Gas, Liugong, Shenma shares and other companies raised more than 3 billion yuan, compared with last year, 9 companies raised more than 5 billion yuan, two of which raised more than 10 billion yuan.
The main reason for the sharp decrease in the number of large-scale issuance of convertible bonds this year is that since the second half of the year, the regulator has continuously optimized the refinancing arrangements and continued to improve the accuracy of the review of convertible bond projects of listed companies, and nearly 20 companies have been terminated during the year, and some large-scale convertible bond fund-raising has also failed, the most typical of which is that in mid-August, Minsheng Bank's plan to issue convertible bonds of no more than 50 billion yuan was terminated.
In terms of secondary market performance, due to the weak trend of A-shares this year, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has increased by 1 year to date89%。
We believe that if the A** market remains weak next year, the number and scale of new convertible bond issuance in 2024 are expected to decline further, and in addition, due to the current low interest rate in the pure bond market and the convertible bond market is also at the bottom stage, the resilience of convertible bonds may be significantly stronger than **.