From 4 times in half a year to 8 of the decline, energy storage is still squeezing the bubble .

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The stock price of energy storage fluctuates sharply because of the rapid change in the logic of supply and demand. The energy crisis in Europe in 2022 has led to various countries rushing to install energy storage. At the same time, many places in China have also issued documents requiring PV to be forced to configure energy storage for 2 hours. For a time, energy storage companies have both performance and expectations.

However, after the outbreak of the energy storage market, cross-border enterprises have poured in rapidly, and the number of energy storage-related companies has increased from 2021 to 50,000 now. The supply exploded but the demand unexpectedly slowed down, and the outdoor energy storage shipments in Europe grew negatively in the first half of the year. The industry has also seen a small market and many enterprises, and an industry knockout competition has also kicked off.

This article holds the following views:

The energy storage investment window has been "closed". In 2022, the demand for energy storage at home and abroad will explode, and energy storage companies will be favored by investors, and the entire energy storage sector will rise by nearly 70% in more than half a year. However, with the change of supply and demand logic, the involution of energy storage has intensified, and the energy storage sector has fallen by 30% since the beginning of the year, and the decline in stock prices is difficult to reverse in the short term.

Energy storage has suffered from the double kill of supply and demand. European demand has dropped sharply, and the purchase of outdoor energy storage in 22 years has not been digested. The domestic energy storage market will also encounter the negative impact of the decline in the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity next year. Although the demand is less than expected, the low threshold of energy storage technology has led to the cross-border influx of other industries, and the intensity of energy storage competition has increased sharply.

Energy storage enters the knockout round. Players in the energy storage market have exceeded the capacity of the market as it should be. At the same time, the energy storage industry is entering the stage of comprehensive integration development from the early "segmentation". The integrated development will also accelerate the survival of the fittest in the energy storage industry, and finally realize the clearing of the energy storage market.

Energy storage was the hottest sector in new energy investment last year. Since the end of March 2022, in less than half a year, the share price of Peneng Technology has risen nearly 4 times, and Sungrow has risen by 12 times.

At that time, the market once summed up a sentence on energy storage:Photovoltaic rises, I also rise, I help photovoltaic high growth;Photovoltaic fell, I also rose, and independent energy storage is also very fragrant.

The energy storage sector in 2022 has both high expectations and good performance. In the domestic market, China's PV has maintained rapid growth, with 53GW of new installed capacity in 2021, almost the highest in history. Since the second half of 2021, many places have successively issued documents requiring PV to be forced to configure energy storage for 2 hours. With policy support, the scale of new energy storage capacity in China is expected to double in the past two years.

Overseas, Europe is a traditional supporter of new energy, and it has encountered a sudden war, which has led to a sharp rise in natural gas and a strong demand for photovoltaic and energy storage. In 2022, Europe will achieve 4 installed energy storage capacity5GW, a year-on-year increase of 809%。Energy storage companies that export overseas are also making a lot of money. In 2022, Paineng Technology's revenue increased by 191 year-on-year6%, net profit increased by 3025%。

In the case of both domestic and overseas markets, the energy storage sector is also favored by the market. Since the end of March 2022, the entire energy storage sector has risen by nearly 70% in more than half a year. However, the strength of the energy storage sector has not continued, and since the beginning of the year, the energy storage sector has fallen by more than 30%. The stock prices of some companies have fallen by 80%, and the stock prices have spit out all the gains in 2022.

Although, the stock price of the energy storage company has retreated. However, in terms of performance, the high growth of energy storage companies continues. For example, Sungrow, whose stock price has fallen by 30% this year, increased its energy storage business revenue by 257 year-on-year in the first half of the year3%。Nandu Power's revenue, which has fallen 40% this year, increased by 29% year-on-year9%。

The performance of energy storage companies has grown rapidly, but no one cares about it in the capital market, because the capital market not only looks at performance but also looks at expectations, and energy storage companies are ushering in a double kill of supply and demand.

If last year's energy storage market was a two-wheel drive for domestic and foreign markets, then this year's energy storage market is largely supported by the domestic market.

The European energy storage market has unexpectedly fallen this year. As the impact of the war wanes and electricity falls, the demand for energy storage in Europe is decreasing. In the first half of the year, overall household storage shipments in Europe fell by 3% year-on-year. moreSeriously, there is still a lot of inventory in the European market.

According to EESA data, European household storage shipments reached 98GWh, but the actual installed capacity is only 46gwh。That is, at the end of last year there were about 5The 2GWh inventory is close to the 5GWh estimated by another authoritative organization, S&P Global, while the normal inventory level is 3GWh. Large inventories will also keep European demand sluggish.

Overseas downturn, although the domestic energy storage market has a high installed capacity this year, it will be difficult to install the domestic energy storage market next year. From the perspective of photovoltaics, the main application scenario of energy storage, TrendForce predicts that the neutral expectation of new global PV capacity in 2024 will be 474GW, a year-on-year increase of 16%, which is a significant decline from the growth rate of 59% in 2023. In this context, the market is worried that the slowdown in PV installations next year will lead to a slowdown in energy storage installations.

Although there is still uncertainty about the demand for energy storage next year, there has been a significant expansion on the supply side this year. According to Tianyancha data, there will be more than 6,000 energy storage-related companies in 2021In 2022, there will be more than 37,000 new ones. In 2023, the number of new additions will reach more than 50,000.

It is not difficult to understand the rapid expansion of the energy storage supply side. The threshold of energy storage technology is low, for example, the energy storage battery is used in the route of lithium iron phosphate, which is less difficult than ternary. The low technical difficulty makes most companies in the battery industry chain have the ability to cross-border energy storage. For example, CATL, BYD, EVE and other battery industry chain enterprises have already laid out energy storage business. Even companies such as Black Sesame, Midea, and Songfa, which do not have relevant technology accumulation, have expressed their desire for cross-border energy storage.

After the sharp increase in supply-side players, the result is market involution. Starting from 2023, the energy storage system will continue to be at the next level, falling from the previous lifting of the ban of 2 yuan Wh to 1 yuan Wh, with a minimum of 066 yuan wh. Wang Yanqing, chairman of Pilot Intelligence, also said that at present, the centralized procurement of energy storage cells is 03-0.5 yuan Wh, the energy storage system has fallen to 1 yuan Wh, which has touched the bottom line of most energy storage battery companies.

* The involution is also related to the fact that this year's market increment is largely dependent on the Chinese market. China's energy storage market attaches great importance to the performance of bidders, and if there is no performance accumulation of the same type of project, it will not have an advantage in the bidding of large projects. Therefore, many companies would rather sell gross profits, even if they lose money on the books, they must first rely on the best to grab the project.

From this point of view, there is great uncertainty and even greater pressure on the energy storage industry next year, but it has continued to hit new lows. Under the squeeze of volume and price, the energy storage industry is entering the knockout round.

Energy storage enters the knockout round.

Someone** 80% of energy storage companies will fall next year, but I think this data is still optimistic. In the future, there may be only more than 20 leading companies in the energy storage integrator link. An industry insider commented on the market pattern of energy storage.

Judging from the current situation of the energy storage market, the industry has been cleared, and many companies have begun to launch energy storage business, such as Songfa Co., Ltd. terminated the acquisition of Anhui Liwei Energy Storage System Co., Ltd., Wanli Co., Ltd. terminated through the holding of Terui Battery, and Kunlun Wanwei divested the energy storage business.

The emergence of energy storage market clearance is not only related to the competitive landscape, but also related to the development stage of the industry. From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the players in the market have exceeded the capacity of the market. According to Chen Yongchong, director of the Green Energy Storage Research Institute of Tsinghua Sichuan Institute, "the installed capacity of new energy storage in the first half of this year is basically equal to the total installed capacity of all past years, but because the new energy storage industry is still in the early stage of development, the absolute market size is small, and the installed capacity of new energy storage in China in 2023 will be about 60 billion yuan." The market size of tens of billions still can't stand the efforts of tens of thousands of energy storage companies. ”

The market is small, and the final result of many companies is that players quit. At the third quarter financial report meeting in October, Sungrow saidDomestic energy storage is almost unprofitable. After the third quarter, many leading companies stopped playing (withdrawing from the bidding market).

In addition to the competitive landscape, the clearing of the energy storage market is also related to the development stage of the industry. The energy storage industry is moving from the early "segmentation" to the stage of comprehensive and integrated development.

Specifically, the core of the energy storage system has "four major parts": battery pack, energy storage converter (PCS), battery management system (BMS), energy management system (EMS), etc. In the early days, the core enterprises in every link could live well. But nowadays, more and more companies are moving from a single product to the system integration business and increasing their integration efforts, such as Sungrow Power Supply and Kelu Electronics from PCS to system integration, and CATL, EVE and other companies from batteries to system integration.

The development trend of the energy storage industry from segmentation to integration is not difficult to understand, in the case of relatively small differences between the four major components of energy storage, enterprises can only rely on comprehensive capabilities to form a competitive advantage. Through the vertical integration layout, the company has built products including energy storage cells, energy storage battery compartments, energy storage converters and other products, which can not only reduce costs, obtain higher gross profits, but also enhance the ability to resist upstream cycle fluctuations. After the integrated development of energy storage, it also means that the industry has entered the stage of big fish eating small fish.

In the process of clearing the energy storage industry, the eliminated enterprises are the majority, and the few remaining enterprises will also complete the transformation from large to strong.