The new energy vehicle battery swap track has ushered in a favorable policy! On December 11, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for new energy vehicle products that reduce or exempt vehicle purchase tax. In the announcement, the battery swap mode was mentioned again, which was regarded by the industry as a further highlight of the advantages of "vehicle and electricity separation" under the "two exemptions and two reductions".
And the "battery swap infrastructure madness" NIO-SW (09866.HK) has been questioned countless times for insisting on the battery swap mode. Today, NIO is still expanding the battery swap territory, and has successively reached cooperation with Changan and Geely in the field of battery swapping.
01 100 billion battery swap track to welcome the policy again
On December 11, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for new energy vehicle products for reducing and exempting vehicle purchase tax (hereinafter referred to as the "Adjustment Announcement"). From January 1, 2024, models applying for inclusion in the "Catalogue of New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" must meet the technical requirements of new energy vehicle products. Among them, the battery swap mode is mentioned again.
According to the policy of "two exemptions and two reductions" for the purchase tax of new energy vehicles, the power battery and the body will be invoiced separately for the model of the battery swap mode, and the purchase tax will not be levied on the part of the power battery.
According to market analysis, the adjustment announcement is actually a supplementary explanation of the "two exemptions and two reductions" policy, clarifying the technical standards that need to be met by the battery-swapping models that enjoy the exemption of power batteries.
For a long time, range anxiety has been a major obstacle to the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and the battery swap mode of "vehicle and electricity separation" can more effectively alleviate user pain points such as long charging time and battery life anxiety than charging.
As a kind of energy replenishment facilities for new energy vehicles, in recent years, the battery swap mode has received key policy support, and the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Swapping Infrastructure", and "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of the Application of Battery Swap Mode for New Energy Vehicles" and other documents have been issued one after another to promote the formulation of standards such as the construction of battery swap network and standard system.
According to the Oriental ** research report, it is expected that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7.8 million in 2025, of which the proportion of battery-swapping models is expected to reach 30%. According to this calculation, there will be 2.34 million battery-swapped models in 2025. According to open source**, the market size of China's battery swap industry chain is expected to reach 133.4 billion yuan in 2025.
In this regard, market analysts said that with the introduction of technical standards for new energy purchase tax reduction, the 100 billion battery swap track is expected to directly benefit.
It should be pointed out that the battery swap mode has broad prospects, but the disadvantages are also very obvious, the initial investment is huge, and the return cycle is very long, therefore, it also discourages many car companies.
02 NIO's "battery swap" needs to be decompressed
Unlike other companies that choose to be asset-light in the field of energy replenishment, NIO regards the battery swap model as a moat in the development of enterprises.
Since 2018, NIO has continuously expanded its battery swap network and has gradually grown into the world's largest operator of smart electric vehicle battery swapping networks. Up to now, NIO has launched 2,205 battery swap stations nationwide, accounting for nearly 65% of the national total.
"At present, more than 77% of NIO users have at least one battery swap station within a 3-kilometer living circle, and a high-speed battery swap network of 9 vertical, 9 horizontal and 19 major urban agglomerations will be fully built in 2025, allowing users to travel freely and go wherever they want." ”
It is reported that in NIO's capital expenditure, the battery swap business is the link with the largest investment in addition to technology self-development, which also further increases the cost pressure of NIO.
According to the rough calculation of about 3 million yuan for a battery swap station revealed by NIO, NIO has invested more than 6.6 billion yuan in the construction of the station alone, not including the later operation and maintenance, battery wear and other expenses.
In addition, NIO's single-station utilization rate is "not high", which is also an important factor affecting the "difficulty in profitability" of its battery swap stations. Li Bin once revealed that NIO's third-generation battery swap stations can reach breakeven by swapping batteries about 60 times a day, and about 20% of the battery swap stations have reached this level, and the utilization rate has improved, but the gap is still not small.
Judging from the financial report, NIO has been struggling with losses. According to statistics, from 2018 to the first half of this year, NIO's cumulative losses reached 76.4 billion yuan, making it the king of losses among the new EV manufacturers. During the same period, the cumulative losses of Ideal, Xpeng and Leap were about 5 billion yuan, 30.9 billion yuan and 12.2 billion yuan respectively, which were not as much as NIO's losses.
In the third quarter of 2023, NIO lost 45 again600 million yuan, an increase of 10 percent year-on-year8%。As of the end of the third quarter of this year, NIO's asset-liability ratio had reached 8078%。
It is not difficult to **, as NIO's battery swap network continues to expand, its investment will further tighten NIO's funds.
According to the analysis of industry insiders, if NIO's battery swap system cannot obtain more additional service income in a limited time, then the burden it bears may crush itself.
03 From "going it alone" to "forming a circle of friends".
Due to the above-mentioned operating pressures, NIO chose to open up the battery swap ecosystem. On November 21, NIO signed a cooperation agreement with Changan Automobile on battery swap business. Only a week later, on November 29, NIO reached a cooperation with Geely.
According to the agreement, the direction of cooperation between NIO and Changan and Geely is to cooperate in battery standards, technology, network and operation, and research and development of battery swap models, rather than simply providing battery swapping for other brands of vehicles.
It is worth mentioning that previously, in the battery swap business, NIO has always adopted a private domain operation mode, which is only for NIO car owners. Changan and Geely are both involved in the operating car market in the field of battery swapping.
The participation of Changan and Geely is expected to help NIO open up the battery swap market for operating vehicles, and the huge demand for operating vehicles can improve the utilization rate of battery swap stations, which is undoubtedly a great benefit for NIO's battery swap business, which is in urgent need of "blood return".
Li Bin said that after five years of development, NIO's battery swap network and NIO Energy Cloud have accumulated rich experience in R&D, construction, and operation, and NIO's battery swap business is ready to open up to the industry. At the moment, in addition to Chang'an and Geely, there are 4-5 companies talking.
What needs to be poured cold water is that with the progress of supercharging technology, the charging time of new energy vehicles has been compressed to 10 minutes, and whether the battery swap mode is still necessary has been controversial in the market.
In this context, can NIO's stubborn battery swap strategy be able to create a future? Keep an eye out!
Author: Bottle.